Probabilistic analysis of the distributed power generation in weakly meshed distribution systems

This paper presents an approach for probabilistic analysis of unbalanced three-phase weakly meshed distribution systems considering uncertainty in load demand. In order to achieve high computational efficiency this approach uses both an efficient method for probabilistic analysis and a radial power flow. The probabilistic approach used is the well-known Two-Point Estimate Method. Meanwhile, the compensation-based radial power flow is used in order to extract benefits from the topological characteristics of the distribution systems. The generation model proposed allows modeling either PQ or PV bus on the connection point between the network and the distributed generator. In addition allows control of the generator operating conditions, such as the field current and the power delivery at terminals. Results on test with IEEE 37 bus system is given to illustrate the operation and effectiveness of the proposed approach. A Monte Carlo Simulations method is used to validate the results. © 2011 IEEE.

Pricing of reactive power support provided by distributed generators in transmission systems

Distributed Generation, microgrid technologies, two-way communication systems, and demand response programs are issues that are being studied in recent years within the concept of smart grids. At some level of enough penetration, the Distributed Generators (DGs) can provide benefits for sub-transmission and transmission systems through the so-called ancillary services. This work is focused on the ancillary service of reactive power support provided by DGs, specifically Wind Turbine Generators (WTGs), with high level of impact on transmission systems. The main objective of this work is to propose an optimization methodology to price this service by determining the costs in which a DG incurs when it loses sales opportunity of active power, i.e, by determining the Loss of Opportunity Costs (LOC). LOC occur when more reactive power is required than available, and the active power generation has to be reduced in order to increase the reactive power capacity. In the optimization process, three objectives are considered: active power generation costs of DGs, voltage stability margin of the system, and losses in the lines of the network. Uncertainties of WTGs are reduced solving multi-objective optimal power flows in multiple probabilistic scenarios constructed by Monte Carlo simulations, and modeling the time series associated with the active power generation of each WTG via Fuzzy Logic and Markov Chains. The proposed methodology was tested using the IEEE 14 bus test system with two WTGs installed. © 2011 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

Peircean semiotics and subject indexing: Contributions of speculative grammar and pure logic

The semiotics of C S. Peirce presents fundamental concepts to discover aspects of the indexing process, including representation and classes of signs. However, we still know little of its theoretical potential for subject indexing. We believe that the main difficulty in the proposals to understand the process of subject indexing based on Peircean semiotics stems from an incomplete interpretation of his semiotic system. This paper attempts to describe the contributions of Peircean semiotics to subject indexing. First, we analyze some of the concepts of the branches of semiotics, after which, we discuss strategies for conceptual approximation. Secondly, and aiming to raise the level of interlocution between the areas, we intend to argue that subject indexing is an inferential process, as explained by the second branch of semiotics. Thus, we seek to go beyond the level of speculative grammar, the first branch of semiotics, to forge a closer link with pure or critical logic, the second branch. We conclude that the indexer's work does not produce a mere reflection of what already exists in documents, but involves an instigating action to discover, through the inferential matrix, the meaning of a text in order to find the subject and the most appropriate subject added entry to the information system.

Valoração de serviços ancilares de geradores distribuídos

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

DNA for nano-bio scale computation of chemical formalisms using Higher Order Logic (HOL) and analysis using an interdisciplinary approach

Bio-molecular computing, 'computations performed by bio-molecules', is already challenging traditional approaches to computation both theoretically and technologically. Often placed within the wider context of ´bio-inspired' or 'natural' or even 'unconventional' computing, the study of natural and artificial molecular computations is adding to our understanding of biology, physical sciences and computer science well beyond the framework of existing design and implementation paradigms. In this introduction, We wish to outline the current scope of the field and assemble some basic arguments that, bio-molecular computation is of central importance to computer science, physical sciences and biology using HOL - Higher Order Logic. HOL is used as the computational tool in our R&D work. DNA was analyzed as a chemical computing engine, in our effort to develop novel formalisms to understand the molecular scale bio-chemical computing behavior using HOL. In our view, our focus is one of the pioneering efforts in this promising domain of nano-bio scale chemical information processing dynamics.

NodePM: A Remote Monitoring Alert System for Energy Consumption Using Probabilistic Techniques

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimating outcomes in newborn infants using fuzzy logic

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Logic TK: algebric notions from Tarski's consequence operator

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A new probabilistic canopy dynamics model (SLCD) that is suitable for evergreen and deciduous forest ecosystems

There are strong uncertainties regarding LAI dynamics in forest ecosystems in response to climate change. While empirical growth & yield models (G&YMs) provide good estimations of tree growth at the stand level on a yearly to decennial scale, process-based models (PBMs) use LAI dynamics as a key variable for enabling the accurate prediction of tree growth over short time scales. Bridging the gap between PBMs and G&YMs could improve the prediction of forest growth and, therefore, carbon, water and nutrient fluxes by combining modeling approaches at the stand level.Our study aimed to estimate monthly changes of leaf area in response to climate variations from sparse measurements of foliage area and biomass. A leaf population probabilistic model (SLCD) was designed to simulate foliage renewal. The leaf population was distributed in monthly cohorts, and the total population size was limited depending on forest age and productivity. Foliage dynamics were driven by a foliation function and the probabilities ruling leaf aging or fall. Their formulation depends on the forest environment.The model was applied to three tree species growing under contrasting climates and soil types. In tropical Brazilian evergreen broadleaf eucalypt plantations, the phenology was described using 8 parameters. A multi-objective evolutionary algorithm method (MOEA) was used to fit the model parameters on litterfall and LAI data over an entire stand rotation. Field measurements from a second eucalypt stand were used to validate the model. Seasonal LAI changes were accurately rendered for both sites (R-2 = 0.898 adjustment, R-2 = 0.698 validation). Litterfall production was correctly simulated (R-2 = 0.562, R-2 = 0.4018 validation) and may be improved by using additional validation data in future work. In two French temperate deciduous forests (beech and oak), we adapted phenological sub-modules of the CASTANEA model to simulate canopy dynamics, and SLCD was validated using LAI measurements. The phenological patterns were simulated with good accuracy in the two cases studied. However, IA/max was not accurately simulated in the beech forest, and further improvement is required.Our probabilistic approach is expected to contribute to improving predictions of LAI dynamics. The model formalism is general and suitable to broadleaf forests for a large range of ecological conditions. (C) 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Probabilistic ictal EEG sources and temporal lobe epilepsy surgical outcome

Objective - For patients with medication refractory medial temporal lobe epilepsy (MTLE), surgery offers the hope of a cure. However, up to 30% of patients with MTLE continue to experience disabling seizures after surgery. The reasons why some patients do not achieve seizure freedom are poorly understood. A promising theory suggests that epileptogenic networks are broadly distributed in surgically refractory MTLE, involving regions beyond the medial temporal lobe. In this retrospective study, we aimed to investigate the distribution of epileptogenic networks in MTLE using Bayesian distributed EEG source analysis from preoperative ictal onset recordings. This analysis has the advantage of generating maps of source probability, which can be subjected to voxel-based statistical analyses.Methods - We compared 10 patients who achieved post-surgical seizure freedom with 10 patients who continued experiencing seizures after surgery. Voxel-based Wilcoxon tests were employed with correction for multiple comparisons.Results - We observed that ictal EEG source intensities were significantly more likely to occur in lateral temporal and posterior medial temporal regions in patients with continued seizures post-surgery.Conclusions - Our findings support the theory of broader spatial distribution of epileptogenic networks at seizure onset in patients with surgically refractory MTLE.

Automatic Indexing and Information Visualization: A Study Based on Paraconsistent Logic

This paper reports a research to evaluate the potential and the effects of use of annotated Paraconsistent logic in automatic indexing. This logic attempts to deal with contradictions, concerned with studying and developing inconsistency-tolerant systems of logic. This logic, being flexible and containing logical states that go beyond the dichotomies yes and no, permits to advance the hypothesis that the results of indexing could be better than those obtained by traditional methods. Interactions between different disciplines, as information retrieval, automatic indexing, information visualization, and nonclassical logics were considered in this research. From the methodological point of view, an algorithm for treatment of uncertainty and imprecision, developed under the Paraconsistent logic, was used to modify the values of the weights assigned to indexing terms of the text collections. The tests were performed on an information visualization system named Projection Explorer (PEx), created at Institute of Mathematics and Computer Science (ICMC - USP Sao Carlos), with available source code. PEx uses traditional vector space model to represent documents of a collection. The results were evaluated by criteria built in the information visualization system itself, and demonstrated measurable gains in the quality of the displays, confirming the hypothesis that the use of the para-analyser under the conditions of the experiment has the ability to generate more effective clusters of similar documents. This is a point that draws attention, since the constitution of more significant clusters can be used to enhance information indexing and retrieval. It can be argued that the adoption of non-dichotomous (non-exclusive) parameters provides new possibilities to relate similar information.

Automatic method to classify images based on multiscale fractal descriptors and paraconsistent logic

In this study is presented an automatic method to classify images from fractal descriptors as decision rules, such as multiscale fractal dimension and lacunarity. The proposed methodology was divided in three steps: quantification of the regions of interest with fractal dimension and lacunarity, techniques under a multiscale approach; definition of reference patterns, which are the limits of each studied group; and, classification of each group, considering the combination of the reference patterns with signals maximization (an approach commonly considered in paraconsistent logic). The proposed method was used to classify histological prostatic images, aiming the diagnostic of prostate cancer. The accuracy levels were important, overcoming those obtained with Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Bestfirst Decicion Tree (BFTree) classifiers. The proposed approach allows recognize and classify patterns, offering the advantage of giving comprehensive results to the specialists.

A hybrid method for the probabilistic maximal covering location-allocation problem

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

A neighbourhood semantic for the Logic TK

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)