Previsão de demanda de veículos automotores através do modelo de regressão linear múltipla

This study aimed to model a equation for the demand of automobiles and light commercial vehicles, based on the data from February 2007 to July 2014, through a multiple regression analysis. The literature review consists of an information collection of the history of automotive industry, and it has contributed to the understanding of the current crisis that affects this market, which consequence was a large reduction in sales. The model developed was evaluated by a residual analysis and also was used an adhesion test - F test - with a significance level of 5%. In addition, a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.8159 was determined, indicating that 81.59% of the demand for automobiles and light commercial vehicles can be explained by the regression variables: interest rate, unemployment rate, broad consumer price index (CPI), gross domestic product (GDP) and tax on industrialized products (IPI). Finally, other ten samples, from August 2014 to May 2015, were tested in the model in order to validate its forecasting quality. Finally, a Monte Carlo Simulation was run in order to obtain a distribution of probabilities of future demands. It was observed that the actual demand in the period after the sample was in the range that was most likely to occur, and that the GDP and the CPI are the variable that have the greatest influence on the developed model

Aplicação do valor presente ajustado (APV) para avaliação do fluxo de caixa de uma empresa do setor automotivo no sistema inovar auto

The automobile industry shows relevance inside the Brazilian industrial scenario since it contributes with the development of a significant chain of supply, distributors, workshops, publicity agencies and insurance companies in the internal market, aside from being one of the five biggest worldwide market. Thereby, the federal government decreed in Dec, 17th 2012 by Law nº 12.715 the Inovar-Auto Program. As the Adjusted Present Value (APV) is highly recommended, although not yet widespread to public politics of tax reduction, this work intends to apply the APV method on the cash flow analysis of an automobile sector's company, which has recently installed in national territory and wants to rely with governmental incentives proposed by Inovar-Auto Program. The developed work evaluates the company's current cash flow stochastically from mathematical modeling of variables such as price, demand and interest rate through probability distributions with the assist of Crystal Ball software, a Microsoft Excel Add-in, generating different scenarios from Monte Carlo Simulation. As results probabilities situations have been evaluated until the end of the Inovar-Auto's conducted period, in 2017. Beside APV others indicator such as Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period were estimated for the investment project. For APV a sampling distribution with only 0.057% of risk, IRR of 29% were obtained and estimated project payback period was 4.13 years

Low power laser radiation at 685 nm stimulates stem-cell proliferation rate in Dugesia tigrina during regeneration

Today's scientific interest in tissue engineering for organ transplantations and regeneration from stem cells, allied with recent observations on biostimulation of tissues and cells by laser radiation, stands as a strong motivation for the present work, in which we examine the effects of the low power laser radiation onto planarians under regenerative process. To investigate those effects, a number of 60 amputated worms were divided in three study groups: a control group and two other groups submitted to daily 1 and 3 min long laser treatment sections at similar to 910 W/m(2) power density. A 685 nm diode laser with 35 mW optical power was used. Samples were sent to histological analysis at the 4th, the 7th and the 15th (lays after amputation. A remarkable increase in stem cells counts for the fourth day of regeneration was observed when the regenerating worms was stimulated by the laser radiation. Our findings encourage further research works on the influence of optical radiation onto stem cells and tissue regeneration. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The Geometric Birnbaum-Saunders regression model with cure rate

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Effect of benzylaminopurine (BAP) on clonal propagation rate of Curcuma longa L.

Curcuma longa L. is used in many countries for its flavor, and medicinal and cosmetic attributes, as well as for its peculiar starch characteristics. These factors have driven an interest in the in vitro propagation of this species, looking for germplasm bank maintenance, production of disease free plants, genetic variability induction from callus, and as a tool for starch research. However, there are few reports concerning the micropropagation of Curcuma longa. The in vitro propagation rate of this species, cultured under two benzylaminopurine (BAP) concentrations, was the aim of this research.

From west to east: Environmental influences on the rate and pathways of Polynesian colonization

The prime movers behind the prehistoric colonization of Remote Oceania, and in particular the large c. 2000-year temporal gap (i.e. long pause') seen between West and East Polynesia, has long been major point of interest in the Pacific. To address these events and the processes that may have led to the known chronological disparity of these diasporas, we present results from two different, but equally powerful, analytical tools which are used to examine Polynesian seafaring capabilities and trajectories. The first is a statistical model known as Seascape, which simulates voyages, while the second uses ease of eastward travel estimates based on land distribution and wind pattern analysis. These analyses were done with the goal of determining the potential role of environmental factors in the colonization process, particularly as they relate to the long pause. We show that the eastern boundary of West Polynesia, the limit of the initial colonization pulse, is marked by a discontinuity in land distribution, where the distances travelers would have to cross in order to reach islands further to the east become significantly larger. At the same time, in West Polynesia, the frequency and intensity of winds favorable to eastward displacement decrease continuously from west to east. As far as winds are concerned, eastward travel in West Polynesia is favored in the northern and southern areas and much more difficult across the central portion. Favorable winds have a clear seasonality, and eastward displacement along the northern area is much easier under El Nino conditions. Voyaging simulations show that intentional eastward voyages departing from Tonga and Samoa, when undertaken with vessels capable of sailing efficiently against the wind, afford a viable route toward several island groups in East Polynesia, with trips starting in Samoa having a higher probability of success.

The intrinsic growth rate as a predictor of population viability under climate warming

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

The benefits of soft sensor and multi-rate control for the implementation of wireless networked control systems

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)