Análise de risco da ocorrência de Sigatoka-negra baseada em modelos polinomiais: um estudo de caso

A Sigatoka-negra (Mycosphaerella fijiensis) ameaça os bananais comerciais em todas as áreas produtoras do mundo e provoca danos quantitativos e qualitativos na produção, acarretando sérios prejuízos financeiros. Faz-se necessário o estudo da vulnerabilidade das plantas em diversos estádios de desenvolvimento e das condições climáticas favoráveis à ocorrência da doença. Objetivou-se com este trabalho desenvolver um modelo probabilístico baseado em funções polinomiais que represente o risco de ocorrência da Sigatokanegra em função da vulnerabilidade decorrente de fatores intrínsecos à planta e ao ambiente. Realizou-se um estudo de caso, em bananal comercial localizado em Jacupiranga, Vale do Ribeira, SP, considerando o monitoramento semanal do estado da evolução da doença, séries temporais de dados meteorológicos e dados de sensoriamento remoto. Foram gerados mapas georreferenciados do risco da Sigatoka-negra em diferentes épocas do ano. Um modelo para estimar a evolução da doença a partir de imagens de satélite foi obtido com coeficiente de determinação R² igual a 0,9. A metodologia foi desenvolvida para a detecção de épocas e locais que reúnem condições favoráveis à ocorrência da Sigatoka-negra e pode ser aplicada, com os devidos ajustes, em diferentes localidades, para avaliar o risco da ocorrência da doença em polos produtores de banana.

Errors due to the tropospheric and ionospheric effects on the geographic location of data collection platforms

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Estimativa de ocorrência de precipitação em áreas agrícolas utilizando floresta de caminhos ótimos

As condições meteorológicas são determinantes para a produção agrícola; a precipitação, em particular, pode ser citada como a mais influente por sua relação direta com o balanço hídrico. Neste sentido, modelos agrometeorológicos, os quais se baseiam nas respostas das culturas às condições meteorológicas, vêm sendo cada vez mais utilizados para a estimativa de rendimentos agrícolas. Devido às dificuldades de obtenção de dados para abastecer tais modelos, métodos de estimativa de precipitação utilizando imagens dos canais espectrais dos satélites meteorológicos têm sido empregados para esta finalidade. O presente trabalho tem por objetivo utilizar o classificador de padrões floresta de caminhos ótimos para correlacionar informações disponíveis no canal espectral infravermelho do satélite meteorológico GOES-12 com a refletividade obtida pelo radar do IPMET/UNESP localizado no município de Bauru, visando o desenvolvimento de um modelo para a detecção de ocorrência de precipitação. Nos experimentos foram comparados quatro algoritmos de classificação: redes neurais artificiais (ANN), k-vizinhos mais próximos (k-NN), máquinas de vetores de suporte (SVM) e floresta de caminhos ótimos (OPF). Este último obteve melhor resultado, tanto em eficiência quanto em precisão.

Simulação do saldo de radiação na Serra da Mantiqueira

A influência do desmatamento da Mata Atlântica sobre o microclima da Serra da Mantiqueira ainda não é totalmente compreendida. Para conhecer as consequências do desmatamento sobre o clima serrano é necessário realizar estudos sobre o balanço de radiação na superfície. A falta de dados possibilita conjugar imagens de satélite com dados meteorológicos em um Sistema de Informação Geográfica na determinação do balanço de radiação. O presente estudo teve por objetivo avaliar o modelo MTCLIM em dias de céu claro ou nublado para simular o balanço de radiação na Serra da Mantiqueira, divisa entre os estados de São Paulo, Minas Gerais e Rio de Janeiro, Brasil. Imagens diárias, semanais e dezesseis dias do sensor MODIS disponíveis em 2003 foram utilizadas em rotinas específicas do MTCLIM. Alvos específicos foram selecionados para avaliar o comportamento do balanço de radiação. Observou-se que o balanço de radiação acompanhou a topografia local e é influenciado pelo tipo de uso da terra. Conclui-se que a temperatura da superfície contribui para aumentar a temperatura do ar implicando em diminuição do balanço de radiação sobre pastagem. O modelo MTCLIM demonstrou boa correlação para a temperatura do ar (R² = 0,82) e para a radiação solar global (R² = 0,71).

How do cold water biota arrive in a tropical bay near Rio de Janeiro, Brazil?

Previous ecological studies on foraminifera and ostracoda from the tropical Sepetiba Bay, located in the southern part of the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, have noted the presence in this area of some cool water taxons typical of the Argentine continental platform. These studies have proposed that parcels of these temperate waters with their associated biological indicators are advected northward along the platform, penetrating into some tropical entrances of the southeast coast of Brazil. In the present study, ecological data (foraminifera, ostracoda and microbivalves), are used together with information obtained by satellite tracked drifting buoys and digital thermal imagery obtained from NOAA satellites to indicate the path taken by these high latitude species along the southern Brazilian coast to arrive in the Sepetiba Bay, near the city of Rio de Janeiro. Our general conclusion is that biotic elements native to the colder, less saline marine waters seen to the south of Brazil have been and are being advected northward along the inner part of the continental platform to about 22 degrees S. Water parcels containing this biota may, in a sporadic fashion, enter into the tropical Sepetiba Bay. The passage of meteorological fronts through the region is considered to be an important if not the principal mechanism for the sporadic entry of the cool water into the Southern Coastal Entrance of the State of Rio de Janeiro. (C) 1998 Elsevier B.V.s Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modelling short-term temporal changes of bare soil CO2 emissions in a tropical agrosystem by using meteorological data

Determining the variability of carbon dioxide emission from soils is an important task as soils are among the largest sources of carbon in biosphere. In this work the temporal variability of bare soil CO2 emissions was measured over a 3-week period. Temporal changes in soil CO2 emission were modelled in terms of the changes that occurred in solar radiation (SR), air temperature (T-air), air humidity (AR), evaporation (EVAP) and atmospheric pressure (ATM) registered during the time period that the experiment was conducted. The multiple regression analysis (backward elimination procedure) includes almost all the meteorological variables and their interactions into the final model (R-2 = 0.98), but solar radiation showed to be the one of the most relevant variables. The present study indicates that meteorological data could be taken into account as the main forces driving the temporal variability of carbon dioxide emission from bare soils, where microbial activity is the sole source of carbon dioxide emitted. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Sea waves generated by extratropical cyclones in the South Atlantic Ocean: Hindcast and validation against altimeter data

This work presents analyses of the atmospheric conditions and the hindcast of the surface wave field when six extratropical cyclones formed and displaced over the South Atlantic Ocean (10degreesN, 60degreesS; 75degreesW, 15degreesE) between April and September 1999. These events caused high sea waves associated with hazardous conditions along the south and southeast coast of Brazil. The meteorological composite fields for these cyclones show a strong near-surface wind velocity (up to 14 m s(-1)) during its mature phase. The sea-state wave hindcast was obtained using a third-generation wave model forced by the 10-m above ground level wind field from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction-National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis dataset. Closer to the south and southeast Brazilian coast, the hindcast results showed significant wave heights of up to 5 m in some of the events. The wave hindcast results for the significant wave height were compared against satellite altimeter data at 6 h intervals. The statistical index showed a systematic underestimation of the significant wave height by 0.5 m. The correlation between wave hindcast and altimeter measurements was greater than 90%, showing a good phase reproduction by the wave model.

PhotoLin: a program to identify and analyze linear structures in aerial photographs, satellite images and maps

A computer program, PhotoLin, written for an IBM-PC-compatible microcomputer is described which detects linear features in aerial photographs, satellite images and topographic maps. The program accepts images saved to PCX files as input and applies noise correction and smoothing filters and thinning routines. The output consists of a skeleton containing the median lines of linear features which can be represented on a map. The branches of the skeleton can be broken into sections of constant length for which the mean orientations are obtained for the preparation of rose diagrams. (C) 2001 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Analytical attitude propagation with non-singular variables and gravity gradient torque for spin stabilized satellite

An analytical approach for the spin stabilized satellite attitude propagation is presented using the non-singular canonical variables to describe the rotational motion. Two sets of variables were introduced for Fukushima in 1994 by a canonical transformation and they are useful when the angle between z-satellite axis of a coordinate system fixed in artificial satellite and the rotational angular momentum vector is zero or when the angle between Z-equatorial axis and rotation angular momentum vector is zero. Analytical solutions for rotational motion equations and torque-free motion are discussed in terms of the elliptic functions and by the application of some simplification to get an approximated solution. These solutions are compared with a numerical solution and the results show a good agreement for many rotation periods. When the mean Hamiltonian associated with the gravity gradient torque is included, an analytical solution is obtained by the application of the successive approximations' method for the satellite in an elliptical orbit. These solutions show that the magnitude of the rotation angular moment is not affected by the gravity gradient torque but this torque causes linear and periodic variations in the angular variables, long and short periodic variations in Z-equatorial component of the rotation angular moment and short periodic variations in x-satellite component of the rotation angular moment. The goal of this analysis is to emphasize the geometrical and physical meaning of the non-singular variables and to validate the approximated analytical solution for the rotational motion without elliptic functions for a non-symmetrical satellite. The analysis can be applied for spin stabilized satellite and in this case the general solution and the approximated solution are coincidence. Then the results can be used in analysis of the space mission of the Brazilian Satellites. (C) 2007 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

TIME-OPTIMAL GEOMAGNETIC ATTITUDE MANEUVERS OF AN AXISYMMETRICAL SPINNING SATELLITE

A formulation used to determine the time-optimal geomagnetic attitude maneuvers subject to dynamic and geometric constraints is proposed in this paper. This was obtained by a direct search procedure based on a control function parametrization method, using linear programming to obtain numerical suboptimal solutions by linear perturbation. Due to its characteristics it can be used in small computers and to generate computer programs of general application. The dynamic modeling, the magnetic torque model and the suboptimal control procedure are presented. Simulation runs have verified the feasibility of the formulation thus derived and have shown a notable improvement in performance.

Cell detection at far ranges: supporting T(b) - Z relationships

The Bauru radar detects inner cores of deep convective storm cells at long range, but relevant cell areas are left undetected. A procedure is in development to generate a more complete three-dimensional representation of the cell structure for cost-beneficial hydrological use at larger distances. A set of satellite microwave brightness temperature (T(b)) - radar reflectivity (Z) relationships, basic to the retrieval procedure, has been derived. Copyright (C) 2005 Royal Meteorological Society

An intercomparison of bio-optical techniques for detecting dominant phytoplankton size class from satellite remote sensing

Satellite remote sensing of ocean colour is the only method currently available for synoptically measuring wide-area properties of ocean ecosystems, such as phytoplankton chlorophyll biomass. Recently, a variety of bio-optical and ecological methods have been established that use satellite data to identify and differentiate between either phytoplankton functional types (PFTs) or phytoplankton size classes (PSCs). In this study, several of these techniques were evaluated against in situ observations to determine their ability to detect dominant phytoplankton size classes (micro-, nano- and picoplankton). The techniques are applied to a 10-year ocean-colour data series from the SeaWiFS satellite sensor and compared with in situ data (6504 samples) from a variety of locations in the global ocean. Results show that spectral-response, ecological and abundance-based approaches can all perform with similar accuracy. Detection of microplankton and picoplankton were generally better than detection of nanoplankton. Abundance-based approaches were shown to provide better spatial retrieval of PSCs. Individual model performance varied according to PSC, input satellite data sources and in situ validation data types. Uncertainty in the comparison procedure and data sources was considered. Improved availability of in situ observations would aid ongoing research in this field. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.