Considering Urban Dynamics in spatial electric load forecasting

When dealing with spatio-temporal simulations of load growth inside a service zone, one of the most important problems faced by a Distribution Utility is how to represent the different relationships among different areas. A new load in a certain part of the city could modify the load growth in other parts of the city, even outside of its radius of influence. These interactions are called Urban Dynamics. This work aims to discuss how to implement Urban Dynamics considerations into the spatial electric load forecasting simulations using multi-agent simulations. To explain the approach, three examples are introduced, including the effect of an attraction load, the effect of a repulsive load, and the effect of several attraction/repulsive loads at the same time when considering the natural load growth. © 2012 IEEE.

Determining spatial resolution in spatial load forecasting using a grid-based model

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Estimation of a preference map of new consumers for spatial load forecasting simulation methods using a spatial analysis of points

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Consumer behavior after the Brazilian power rationing in 2001

In June 2001, after a dry period, the level of the water reservoirs in Brazil was below their operational levels. This situation, combined with other historical factors, led the country into a period of power rationing. As expected, power consumption lowered during this period. After December 2001, when the power rationing ended, electrical utilities expected to return to their normal power consumption in a matter of months, but the level of power consumption only returned to its level around years 2004 2005. Consumer behavior went through a change during this period, and the consumers kept this behavior after, leading to electrical and economical consequences until today. This paper presents an analysis of several factors that led to these events, including historical consumption data and comparisons with similar situations. The objective of this analysis is to give helpful information to electrical utilities, that could deal with similar situations, in their load forecasting studies. © 2006 IEEE.

Evolutionary heuristic to determine future land use

In the spatial electric load forecasting, the future land use determination is one of the most important tasks, and one of the most difficult, because of the stochastic nature of the city growth. This paper proposes a fast and efficient algorithm to find out the future land use for the vacant land in the utility service area, using ideas from knowledge extraction and evolutionary algorithms. The methodology was implemented into a full simulation software for spatial electric load forecasting, showing a high rate of success when the results are compared to information gathered from specialists. The importance of this methodology lies in the reduced set of data needed to perform the task and the simplicity for implementation, which is a great plus for most of the electric utilities without specialized tools for this planning activity. © 2008 IEEE.

Aplicações de sistemas multiagentes na previsão espacial de demanda elétrica em sistemas de distribuição

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Previsão de carga multinodal utilizando redes neurais de regressão generalizada

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Desenvolvimento de um sistema dinâmico para predição de cargas elétricas por redes neurais através do paradigma de programação orientada a objeto sob a linguagem JAVA

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de cargas elétricas através de um modelo híbrido de regressão com redes neurais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de cargas elétricas através de uma Rede Neural Híbrida Back-ART Fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Sistema inteligente para previsão de carga multinodal em sistemas elétricos de potência

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Previsão de carga multinodal usando a rede neural ART-ARTMAP fuzzy

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Elétrica - FEIS

Previsão espacial de demanda em sistemas de distribuição com uma base reduzida de dados

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Desenvolvimento de redes neurais para previsão de cargas elétricas de sistemas de energia elétrica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)