244 resultados para Probabilidade e Estatística Aplicadas


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The objective of this paper is to verify and analyze the existence in Brazil of stylized facts observed in financial time series: volatility clustering, probability distributions with fat tails, the presence of long run memory in absolute return time series, absence of linear return autocorrelation, gain/loss asymmetry, aggregative gaussianity, slow absolute return autocorrelation decay, trading volume/volatility correlation and leverage effect. We analyzed intraday prices for 10 stocks traded at the BM&FBovespa, responsible for 52.1% of the Ibovespa portfolio on Sept. 01, 2009. The data analysis confirms the stylized facts, whose behavior is consistent with what is observed in international markets.

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This work aims to evaluate a simple procedure for rainwater treatment by applying natural corn starch as primary coagulant for non-potable harvesting households. For this purpose, coagulation, flocculation and filtration were carried out in lab essays in samples of roof and floor catchment without first-flush. There were investigated corn starch dosages from 1 to 12 mg/L in pH values around 6,0. The apparent color and turbidity were measured and the results were statistically presented. Results pointed out reductions around 70 and 80% for apparent color and turbidity (residuals of 53Hu and 13Tu), respectively.

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Pós-graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia Animal - FEIS

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

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Pós-graduação em Medicina Veterinária - FCAV

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Studies with organic systems have shown the feasibility and ecological and social sustainability of these agroecosystems, unlike the systems agrochemicals (conventional) production. Some studies have concluded that for the model agrochemical exists less interaction between the flow of internal energy, basically the crop receives all inputs to production with no increase in "energy quality" within the system, while in the organic model of production has increased interaction between different resources in the system. The current economic and ecological crisis, exposed no sustainability of the production pattern of industrialized agriculture developed in a way, showing the dependence of developed countries on imports of agricultural commodities produced in the third world, among there coffee. Given these facts, developed a survey to identify problems in the Alta Paulista region, west of São Paulo State, in relation to coffee production systems. Actually, the fundamental problem, according to the research, farmers in this region, is to choose a viable production system correctly (environmental, social and economic); agrochemical or organic. The objectives of this study were to analyze the yield of production systems and agro-chemical and organic coffee in the period from 2003 to 2007, in 30 producing properties, located in this region, in order to point the production system to produce the highest yield. According to the methodology of CONAB, data collected were recorded on spreadsheets to be used as variables in statistical analysis models and mathematics. We performed a descriptive analysis of productivity data and were used for statistical analysis tests for parametric and nonparametric analysis of variance. The mathematical analyses of the curves were prepared with Origin for Windows 6.0 software, which uses numerical methods to fit the data supplied to a function of variable parameters. Unlike conventional systems of production, the organic system showed greater viability of the production model. Furthermore, with the quantitative modeling proposal, it is possible to perform the evaluation of these types of investments, providing more security to the farmer at the time of decision.

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The industry of sugar cane has become an important contributor to the generation of electricity in Brazil. Currently there are 434 sugar and ethanol plants operating in the country, 23% of the total export electricity to the National Integrated System (SIN), the state of São Paulo has 182 plants and 30% of them export energy to the SIN. The objective of this study is to compare parameters of electrical efficiency in the sugar and alcohol industry. For the study, three plants localized in the midwest region of Sao Paulo state with great potential for production and exporting bioenergy were chosen. Five energy analyzers LANDYS + GYR SAGA were used for measure the electrical parameters. The variables studied were energy consumption (C) and power factor (PF). For the statistical analysis it was adopteda randomized block design in a factorial 3 5composed of three companies and five sectors of energy consumption,in which: reception(1), milling (2), boiler (3), supporting activities / juice treatment (4), and distillation (5), totaling 15 treatments. Each group comprised 192 repetitions (48 hours 4 measurements per hour). It was concluded that there is no interest for the plans to fix the FP and reach a value 0.92, which is considered the ideal power factor.This,because the plants generate their own energy and are not penalized. Regarding the energy consumed, all sectors had significant differences. When comparingsector to sector, the plant called USB showed no significant differences in sectors 1 and 3, and the plant USC, in sectors 1 and 4. Considering the production units of this sector and selling power this type of evaluation is essential to perform this analysis, since the analyzed sectors are most important in the production of sugar and ethanol, and analyze and monitor these parameters, use and consumption energy can provide a greater supply of energy to be commercialized.

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The application technology shows many parameters related to the quality of the application, one is the droplet spectrum, which is influenced by the spray nozzles and the adjuvant used. Therefore, the objective of this work was estimate the behavior of the droplet spectrum generated with different nozzles and different adjuvants. The experiment was installed containing four solutions from different type adjuvant dilution, as vegetal oil, mineral oil, surfactant and drift reduction, which were applied with two nozzle, one pre-orifice flat fan (DG 8003 VS) and other of air induction flat fan (AI 8003 VS), totaling 8 treatments with 3 repetitions. The experiment was realized in ideal weather conditions for spraying. The treatments averages were compared using Confidence Interval at 95% probability and the correlations between variables were analyzed using Pearson at 5% of probability. The analysis of droplet spectrum showed different behavior for each adjuvant and nozzle. The surfactant treatment showed VMD superior for all treatments when sprayed with AI nozzles. For the %vol.<100 µm the lowest value found was for the AI nozzle in combination with the surfactant. The significant correlations found for the nozzles AI and DG were negative between VMD and %vol.<100 µm. It can be concluded that the values of DMV and %vol.<100 µm showed that the nozzle with pre-orifice have droplet spectrum more prone to drift. The surfactant showed to be the best drift reduction technique when combined with the AI nozzle.

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This study aimed to verify the influence of adjuvants on the droplet spectrum of an air induction nozzle. The experiment used nine spray solutions, one including only water and eight containing adjuvants: Nimbus® (mineral oil), Óleo vegetal Nortox (vegetal oil), Li-700® (a mixture of lecithin and propionic acid), Agral® (nonyl phenoxy poly ethanol), In-Tec® (nonyl phenol ethoxylate), Antideriva (nonyl phenol ethoxylate), Silwet® L-77 Ag (copolymer polyester and silicon) and TA 35 (sodium lauryl ether sulfate). A flat fan air induction nozzle Hypro® Guardian Air 110 03 was used for the droplet spectrum evaluation. The study was conducted at the Laboratory for Particle Size Analysis (Lapar), at FCAV/UNESP, Jaboticabal/SP - Brazil. The determination of the droplet spectrum characteristics (Volume Median Diameter/VMD, percentage of droplets smaller than 100 micrometers and span) was carried out by a particle size analyzer by laser diffraction Mastersizer S (Malvern Instruments). For statistical analysis the mean values were compared using Confidence Interval at 95% (CI 95%). The results showed that for the Hypro® GA air induction nozzle the oil based adjuvants (Óleo Vegetal Nortox e Nimbus®) increased the VMD. The percentage of droplets smaller than 100 micrometers was lower for the Agral®, Antideriva, In-Tec® e TA 35, in comparison with the Óleo Vegetal Nortox and Li-700®. The span was higher for the oil based adjuvants (Óleo Vegetal Nortox e Nimbus®) and lower for the TA 35 (sodium lauryl ether sulfate), showing that the TA 35 adjuvant has a potential to improve the quality of the droplet spectrum of the Hypro® GA 11003 nozzle.

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Crop yield is influenced by several factors with variability in time and space that are associated with the variations in the plant vigor. This variability allows the identification of management zones and site-specific applications to manage different regions of the field. The purpose of this study was the use of multispectral image for management zones identification and implications of site-specific application in commercial cotton areas. Multispectral airborne images from three years were used to classify a field into three vegetation classes via the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The NDVI classes were used to verify the potential differences between plant physical measurements and identify management zones. The cotton plant measurements sampled in 8 repetitions of 10 plants at each NDVI class were Stand Count, Plant Height, Total Nodes and Total Bolls. Statistical analysis was performed with treatments arranged in split plot design with Tukey’s Test at 5% of probability. The images were classified into five NDVI classes to evaluate the relationship between cotton plant measurement results and sampling location across the field. The results have demonstrated the possibility of using multispectral image for management zones identification in cotton areas. The image classification into three NDVI classes showed three different zones in the field with similar characteristics for the studied years. Statistical differences were shown for plant height, total nodes and total bolls between low and high NDVI classes for all years. High NDVI classes contained plants with greater height, total nodes and total bolls compared to low NDVI classes. There was no difference in Stand Count between low and high NDVI classes for the three studied years. The final plant stand was the same between all NDVI classes for 2001 and 2003 as it was expected due to the conventional seeding application with the same rate of seeds for the entire field.

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The knowledge of the soil occupation as for his nature, location, occurrence form, changes happened in certain periods, they are valuable for the programming of activities that you seek to the development agricultural, economical and social of the area. This work aimed at to identify and to quantify the soil occupation of Stream Petiço Watershed - Botucatu (SP), through the Geographical Information System IDRISI and data of sensor Landsat 5 TM of 09/06/97 and 23/08/2013. For the analysis of the results it was verified that the eucalyptus culture, due to existence of great reforestation companies in the watershed, together with the native forests they are predominant in the study area, the remaining of the area is occupied by pastures and soil prepared for the planting of agricultural cultures.

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The aim of this work was to compare the efficiency of conventional antibiotics in relation to hop-based antimicrobials, in industrial-scale bioethanol production. The comparison was made by calculating the lactic acid bacteria population reduction in two consecutive fermentation cycles. To conduct the experiment, it was used five treatments (three conventional antibiotics: Kamoran WP, Corstan and Alcapen 1030, and two hop-based antimicrobials: BetaBio and IsoStab). The samples were collected in the fermentation vat. In order to quantify the initial lactic acid bacteria population, a sample was collected at the end of the fermentation process (wine) before the treatment with antibiotics or antimicrobials, and to determine the final population, another sample was collected at the end of the fermentation process (wine) after the treatment with antibiotics or antimicrobials. The experiment was completely randomized and the statistical analysis was performed through analysis of variance (ANOVA) for data processed using the equation y’ = . After the data transformation, the Levene's test was applied to verify data adherence to normal distribution, and the averages were compared through Tukey’s test at 5% probability. The results showed that the hop-based antimicrobials (IsoStab and BetaBio) can be used to substitute the conventional antibiotics (Kamoran, Alcapen and Corstan), since there was no statistical difference between the treatments.