220 resultados para Simulação em Estatística
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This paper presents a pilot study carried out for an urban ergonomic investigation, considering the pedestrian point of view in relation to the thermal comfort. Therefore, a thermal evaluation of an urban fraction is performed, by applying simulations in the ENVI-met model, associated with the application of the BOTworld software.
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The objective of this paper is to verify and analyze the existence in Brazil of stylized facts observed in financial time series: volatility clustering, probability distributions with fat tails, the presence of long run memory in absolute return time series, absence of linear return autocorrelation, gain/loss asymmetry, aggregative gaussianity, slow absolute return autocorrelation decay, trading volume/volatility correlation and leverage effect. We analyzed intraday prices for 10 stocks traded at the BM&FBovespa, responsible for 52.1% of the Ibovespa portfolio on Sept. 01, 2009. The data analysis confirms the stylized facts, whose behavior is consistent with what is observed in international markets.
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With the advancement of computer technology and the availability of technology computer aided design (CAD) errors in the designs are getting smaller. To this end the project aims to assess the reliability of the machine (CNC), which was designed by students of mechanical engineering college engineering - UNESP Bauru, by designing, modeling, simulation and machining an airfoil automotive. The profile template selected for the study will be a NACA 0012 machined plates in medium density fiberboard (MDF) and will be performed with a structural analysis simulation using finite elements and a software CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics), and test the real scale model in a wind tunnel. The results obtained in the wind tunnel and CFD software will be compared to see the error in the machining process.
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A reciclagem é uma importante ferramenta para a gestão dos Resíduos Sólidos Domiciliares, como cita a Política Nacional dos Resíduos Sólidos. Assim esta pesquisa visa quantificar o impacto ambiental que um programa de reciclagem, com o objetivo de reciclar 20% dos resíduos passíveis de reciclagem, causaria na cidade de Cachoeira Paulista/SP. Para isso, foi utilizado o Waste Reduction Model para simular os dados e calcular a Emissão dos Gases de Efeito Estufa (MTCO2E e MTCE) e quantidade de Energia (Kwh). Um programa de reciclagem de 20% tem oportunidade de reduzir, em um ano e em relação a situação sem reciclagem, aproximadamente em 49% a quantidade de CO2 e C equivalentes, além de economizar em Kwh o equivalente ao gasto por um mês de energia elétrica de 9400 residências.
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The purpose of this research was to present the principles for the implementation of a future water body classification program at the UGRHI-1 (Management Unit of Water Resources-1/São Paulo, Brazil) using qualitative and quantitative water modeling. Our study area was in Campos do Jordão, a city in the state of São Paulo, specifically in the Perdizes river watershed, which is included in the UGRHI-1. The water quality assessment used a modeling mehtodology that can support a future study for the classification of water bodies in the region. The behavior of DO and BOD parameters was assessed in the water quality scenarios, considering the variations of flows, loads, reductions in withdrawals and different efficiencies in sewage treatment. The model used was QUAL2E developed by USEPA (United States Environmental Protection Agency) that received a new graphic interface named QUAL2R model. The reference flows Q7,10, Q95% and Qm used were obtained through the DAEE (Department of Water and Electric Energy) hydrologic regionalization method. It was noted that of the 9 proposed scenarios, only scenario 6 that was predicted in the flow regime Qm with the existence of a treatment system capable of removing 93% of the BOD, in the Perdizes River remained 67.5% of the time in class 2. Scenario 8 predicted a 50% reduction in In scenario 8 a reduction of 50% in the flow captured in CA-04, associated with the efficiency of 93% of BOD removal keeping the river in class 2. In scenario 9 the minimum required efficiency in sewage treatment in the flow regime Q95% for keeping the river in class 2 was also calculated and the value of 94.7% was obtained.
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O uso de computação em nuvem tem se tornado cada vez mais intenso nos últimos anos. Devido principalmente a fatores econômicos, a avaliação de desempenho de sistemas de computação em nuvem, principalmente através de simulação, tem sido amplamente aplicada. Neste trabalho se apresenta a inclusão da funcionalidade de modelagem e simulação de computação em nuvem no simulador de ambientes distribuídos iSPD.
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Pós-graduação em Ciência e Tecnologia de Materiais - FC
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The numeric simulation is an important tool applied in understanding the dynamics of groundwater flow. In a hydrogeological model the processes responsible for groundwater flow are described by numerical formulations that allow the simplification, representation and understanding of the dynamics of the Aquifer System. In this work, a steady state groundwater flow simulation of Urucuia Aquifer System (UAS) part of the Corrente river basin was conducted, using the finite element method through software FEFLOW, to understand the dynamics of groundwater flow and quantify the hydrologic balance. The aquifer system Urucuia lodges in the São Francisco hydrogeological province and corresponds to a set of interconnected aquifers that occur in rocks from Urucuia group in the Urucuia sub-basin described by Campos e Dardenne (1997). The system is a porous media one, in a shape of a thick table mountain, consisting essentially of sandstones. The Corrente river basin is located in UAS in Western State of Bahia and it's one of the main units to maintaining permanent flow (Q95) and average natural flow of the São Francisco river. The simulation performed in this work obtained the following results for the modelled region: horizontal hydraulic conductivity of 3 x 10-4 m/s and vertical one 6 x 10-5 m/s; maximum recharge of 345 mm and minimum of 85 mm/a. It was concluded that: (1) regional groundwater flow has eastbound; with an exception of the extreme northeast portion, where the flow has opposite direction; (2) there are smaller water side dividers with an approximate direction EW, that guide the flow of water to the drainage that cut the aquifer; and (3) the UAS at Corrente river basin can be understood as a free regional aquifer system, isotropic and homogeneous. Regionally, the small lithological variations present in the Urucuia group can be neglected and do not exhibit significant influences on the dynamics of ground water flow
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The water management in any area is highly important to the success of many business and also of life and the understanding of your relationship with the environment brings better control to its demand. I.e. hydrogeological studies are needed under better understanding of the behavior of an aquifer, so that its management is done so as not to deplete or harm it. The objective of this work is the numerical modeling in transient regime of a portion of the Rio Claro aquifer formation in order to get answers about its hydrogeological parameters, its main flow direction and also its most sensitive parameters. A literature review and conceptual characterization of the aquifer, combined with field campaigns and monitoring of local water level (NA), enabled the subsequent construction of the mathematical model by finite elements method, using the FEFLOW 6.1 ® computational algorithm. The study site includes the campus of UNESP and residential and industrial areas of Rio Claro city. Its area of 9.73 km ² was divided into 318040 triangular elements spread over six layers, totaling a volume of 0.25 km³. The local topography and geological contacts were obtained from previous geological and geophysical studies as well as profiles of campus wells and SIAGAS / CPRM system. The seven monitoring wells on campus were set up as observation points for calibration and checking of the simulation results. Sampling and characterization of Rio Claro sandstones shows up a high hydrological and lithological heterogeneity for the aquifer formation. The simulation results indicate values of hydraulic conductivity between 10-6 and 10-4 m / s, getting the Recharge/Rainfall simulation in transient ratio at 13%. Even with the simplifications imposed on the model, it was able to represent the fluctuations of local NA over a year of monitoring. The result was the exit of 3774770 m³ of water and the consequently NA fall. The model is considered representative for the...
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Pós-graduação em Física - IGCE
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Studies with organic systems have shown the feasibility and ecological and social sustainability of these agroecosystems, unlike the systems agrochemicals (conventional) production. Some studies have concluded that for the model agrochemical exists less interaction between the flow of internal energy, basically the crop receives all inputs to production with no increase in "energy quality" within the system, while in the organic model of production has increased interaction between different resources in the system. The current economic and ecological crisis, exposed no sustainability of the production pattern of industrialized agriculture developed in a way, showing the dependence of developed countries on imports of agricultural commodities produced in the third world, among there coffee. Given these facts, developed a survey to identify problems in the Alta Paulista region, west of São Paulo State, in relation to coffee production systems. Actually, the fundamental problem, according to the research, farmers in this region, is to choose a viable production system correctly (environmental, social and economic); agrochemical or organic. The objectives of this study were to analyze the yield of production systems and agro-chemical and organic coffee in the period from 2003 to 2007, in 30 producing properties, located in this region, in order to point the production system to produce the highest yield. According to the methodology of CONAB, data collected were recorded on spreadsheets to be used as variables in statistical analysis models and mathematics. We performed a descriptive analysis of productivity data and were used for statistical analysis tests for parametric and nonparametric analysis of variance. The mathematical analyses of the curves were prepared with Origin for Windows 6.0 software, which uses numerical methods to fit the data supplied to a function of variable parameters. Unlike conventional systems of production, the organic system showed greater viability of the production model. Furthermore, with the quantitative modeling proposal, it is possible to perform the evaluation of these types of investments, providing more security to the farmer at the time of decision.
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The industry of sugar cane has become an important contributor to the generation of electricity in Brazil. Currently there are 434 sugar and ethanol plants operating in the country, 23% of the total export electricity to the National Integrated System (SIN), the state of São Paulo has 182 plants and 30% of them export energy to the SIN. The objective of this study is to compare parameters of electrical efficiency in the sugar and alcohol industry. For the study, three plants localized in the midwest region of Sao Paulo state with great potential for production and exporting bioenergy were chosen. Five energy analyzers LANDYS + GYR SAGA were used for measure the electrical parameters. The variables studied were energy consumption (C) and power factor (PF). For the statistical analysis it was adopteda randomized block design in a factorial 3 5composed of three companies and five sectors of energy consumption,in which: reception(1), milling (2), boiler (3), supporting activities / juice treatment (4), and distillation (5), totaling 15 treatments. Each group comprised 192 repetitions (48 hours 4 measurements per hour). It was concluded that there is no interest for the plans to fix the FP and reach a value 0.92, which is considered the ideal power factor.This,because the plants generate their own energy and are not penalized. Regarding the energy consumed, all sectors had significant differences. When comparingsector to sector, the plant called USB showed no significant differences in sectors 1 and 3, and the plant USC, in sectors 1 and 4. Considering the production units of this sector and selling power this type of evaluation is essential to perform this analysis, since the analyzed sectors are most important in the production of sugar and ethanol, and analyze and monitor these parameters, use and consumption energy can provide a greater supply of energy to be commercialized.
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The morphometric characterization of watersheds is of great importance in assisting the planning of these areas to preserve the environment and maintain the quantity and quality of water production. The aim of this study was to characterize the morphology and simulate the areas of permanent preservation according to the Brazilian Forest Code of watershed of the Água-Fria stream. The studied area is located in the municipality of Bofete-SP, between the geographic coordinates: 48° 09' 30" to 48° 18' 30" longitude (WGr) and 22° 58' 30" to 23° 04' 30" latitude S. The results showed a 5th order micro watershed with an area of 152.43 km2 and low drainage density of 1.04 km/km2. Circularity was 0.51 and form factor was 0.41, which is considered low, and therefore with an oblong/oval shape. The sinuosity index of 1.29 revealed a tendency of rectilinear channels with compactness coefficient value of 1.38 and distance of runoff flow of 520m. Simulation of areas of permanent preservation shows an ideal model as the way springs and watercourses should be protected according to the Brazilian Forest Code, amounting to an area of 10.02 km2.
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The objective of this study was to simulate the potential stem and sugar yield of sugar cane (Saccharum officinarum L.) in the Northeastern Brazil (Petrolina-PE and Teresina-PI) and analyze 4 varieties in different planting seasons in two environments: irrigated and rainfed cultivars. The model of simulation was DSSAT/CANEGRO (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) and the four sugar cane varieties were as follows: RB86 7515, CTC 4, CTC 7 and CTC 20 (all in 1.5 year cycle). Analysis of variance was performed on the results and means were compared using the Tukey test with probability level at 5%. March is the recommended month for planting in Teresina, PI. In Petrolina, PE, rainfed planting is not advisable because of the extended water deficit all year long. In an irrigated environment, no difference was found concerning stem yield as a function of planting season, for all varieties in the study regions. The stem and sugar yields were always higher in irrigated environment as compared with those in rainfed environment in all municipalities and study varieties. The simulation model provided good estimate of stem and sugar yields as compared with experimental data in Teresina, PI.
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Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)