24 resultados para Multi-scheme ensemble prediction system
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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The medium term hydropower scheduling (MTHS) problem involves an attempt to determine, for each time stage of the planning period, the amount of generation at each hydro plant which will maximize the expected future benefits throughout the planning period, while respecting plant operational constraints. Besides, it is important to emphasize that this decision-making has been done based mainly on inflow earliness knowledge. To perform the forecast of a determinate basin, it is possible to use some intelligent computational approaches. In this paper one considers the Dynamic Programming (DP) with the inflows given by their average values, thus turning the problem into a deterministic one which the solution can be obtained by deterministic DP (DDP). The performance of the DDP technique in the MTHS problem was assessed by simulation using the ensemble prediction models. Features and sensitivities of these models are discussed. © 2012 IEEE.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Pós-graduação em Geociências e Meio Ambiente - IGCE
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Torsional vibration predictions and measurements of a marine propulsion system, which has both damping and a highly flexible coupling, are presented in this paper. Using the conventional approach to stress prediction in the shafting system, the numerical predictions and the experimental torsional vibration stress curves in some parts of the shafting system are found to be quite different. The free torsional vibration characteristics and forced torsional vibration response of the system are analyzed in detail to investigate this phenomenon. It is found that the second to fourth natural modes of the shafting system have significant local deformation. This results in large torsional resonant responses in different sections of the system corresponding to different engine speeds. The results show that when there is significant local deformation in the shafting system for different modes, then multi-point measurements should be made, rather than the conventional method of using a single measurement at the free end of the shaft, to obtain the full torsional vibration characteristics of the shafting system.
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The accurate identification of the nitrogen content in plants is extremely important since it involves economic aspects and environmental impacts, Several experimental tests have been carried out to obtain characteristics and parameters associated with the health of plants and its growing. The nitrogen content identification in plants involves a lot of non-linear parameters and complexes mathematical models. This paper describes a novel approach for identification of nitrogen content thought SPAD index using artificial neural networks (ANN). The network acts as identifier of relationships among, crop varieties, fertilizer treatments, type of leaf and nitrogen content in the plants (target). So, nitrogen content can be generalized and estimated and from an input parameter set. This approach can form the basis for development of an accurate real time system to predict nitrogen content in plants.
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Fiber reinforced polymer composites have been widely applied in the aeronautical field. However, composite processing, which uses unlocked molds, should be avoided in view of the tight requirements and also due to possible environmental contamination. To produce high performance structural frames meeting aeronautical reproducibility and low cost criteria, the Brazilian industry has shown interest to investigate the resin transfer molding process (RTM) considering being a closed-mold pressure injection system which allows faster gel and cure times. Due to the fibrous composite anisotropic and non homogeneity characteristics, the fatigue behavior is a complex phenomenon quite different from to metals materials crucial to be investigated considering the aeronautical application. Fatigue sub-scale specimens of intermediate modulus carbon fiber non-crimp multi-axial reinforcement and epoxy mono-component system composite were produced according to the ASTM 3039 D. Axial fatigue tests were carried out according to ASTM D 3479. A sinusoidal load of 10 Hz frequency and load ratio R = 0.1. It was observed a high fatigue interval obtained for NCF/RTM6 composites. Weibull statistical analysis was applied to describe the failure probability of materials under cyclic loads and fractures pattern was observed by scanning electron microscopy. (C) 2010 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The training and the application of a neural network system for the prediction of occurrences of secondary metabolites belonging to diverse chemical classes in the Asteraceae is described. From a database containing about 604 genera and 28,000 occurrences of secondary metabolites in the plant family, information was collected encompassing nine chemical classes and their respective occurrences for training of a multi-layer net using the back-propagation algorithm. The net supplied as output the presence or absence of the chemical classes as well as the number of compounds isolated from each taxon. The results provided by the net from the presence or absence of a chemical class showed a 89% hit rate; by excluding triterpenes from the analysis, only 5% of the genera studied exhibited errors greater than 10%. Copyright (C) 2004 John Wiley Sons, Ltd.
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This work presents a new approach for rainfall measurements making use of weather radar data for real time application to the radar systems operated by institute of Meteorological Research (IPMET) - UNESP - Bauru - SP-Brazil. Several real time adjustment techniques has been presented being most of them based on surface rain-gauge network. However, some of these methods do not regard the effect of the integration area, time integration and distance rainfall-radar. In this paper, artificial neural networks have been applied for generate a radar reflectivity-rain relationships which regard all effects described above. To evaluate prediction procedure, cross validation was performed using data from IPMET weather Doppler radar and rain-gauge network under the radar umbrella. The preliminary results were acceptable for rainfalls prediction. The small errors observed result from the spatial density and the time resolution of the rain-gauges networks used to calibrate the radar.
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A new strategy for minimization of Cu2+ and Pb2+ interferences on the spectrophotometric determination of Cd2+ by the Malachite green (MG)-iodide reaction using electrolytic deposition of interfering species and solid phase extraction of Cd2+ in flow system is proposed. The electrolytic cell comprises two coiled Pt electrodes concentrically assembled. When the sample solution is electrolyzed in a mixed solution containing 5% (v/v) HNO3, 0.1% (v/v) H2SO4 and 0.5 M NaCl, Cu2+ is deposited as Cu on the cathode, Pb2+ is deposited as PbO2 on the anode while Cd2+ is kept in solution. After electrolysis, the remaining solution passes through an AG1-X8 resin (chloride form) packed minicolumn in which Cd2+ is extracted as CdCl4/2-. Electrolyte compositions, flow rates, timing, applied current, and electrolysis time was investigated. With 60 s electrolysis time, 0.25 A applied current, Pb2+ and Cu2+ levels up to 50 and 250 mg 1-1, respectively, can be tolerated without interference. For 90 s resin loading time, a linear relationship between absorbance and analyte concentration in the 5.00-50.0 μg Cd 1-1 range (r2 = 0.9996) is obtained. A throughput of 20 samples per h is achieved, corresponding to about 0.7 mg MG and 500 mg KI and 5 ml sample consumed per determination. The detection limit is 0.23 μg Cd 1-1. The accuracy was checked for cadmium determination in standard reference materials, vegetables and tap water. Results were in agreement with certified values of standard reference materials and with those obtained by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry at 95% confidence level. The R.S.D. for plant digests and water containing 13.0 μg Cd 1-1 was 3.85% (n = 12). The recoveries of analyte spikes added to the water and vegetable samples ranged from 94 to 104%. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V.
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This paper describes a method for the decentralized solution of the optimal reactive power flow (ORPF) problem in interconnected power systems. The ORPF model is solved in a decentralized framework, consisting of regions, where the transmission system operator in each area operates its system independently of the other areas, obtaining an optimal coordinated but decentralized solution. The proposed scheme is based on an augmented Lagrangian approach using the auxiliary problem principle (APP). An implementation of an interior point method is described to solve the decoupled problem in each area. The described method is successfully implemented and tested using the IEEE two area RTS 96 test system. Numerical results comparing the solutions obtained by the traditional and the proposed decentralized methods are presented for validation. ©2008 IEEE.