180 resultados para Kernel estimator and ROC-GLM methodology
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In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan-Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program ('Nellore Brazil') were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan-Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan-Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings. Copyright © The Animal Consortium 2012.
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Objective: to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of cases of dengue fever occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, state of Sao Paulo (SP).Methods: an ecological and exploratory study was undertaken using spatial analysis tools and data from dengue cases obtained on the SinanNet. The analysis was carried out by area, using the IBGE census sector as a unit. The months of March to June 2006 and 2011 were assessed, revealing progress of the disease. TerraView 3.3.1 was used to calculate the Global Moran's I, month to month, and the Kernel estimator.Results: in the year 2006, 691 cases of dengue fever (rate of 864.2 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (TM = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.20; p = 0.01) with higher densities in the central, north, northeast and south regions. In the year 2011, 654 cases of dengue fever (rate of 886.8 cases/100,000 inhabitants) were georeferenced; and the Moran's I and p-values were significant in the months of April and May (I, = 0.28; p = 0.01; I-M = 0.16; p = 0.05) with densities in the same regions as 2006. The Global Moran's I is a global measure of spatial autocorrelation, which indicates the degree of spatial association in the set of information from the product in relation to the average. The I varies between -1 and +1 and can be attributed to a level of significance (p-value). The positive value points to a positive or direct spatial autocorrelation.Conclusion: we were able to identify patterns in the spatial and temporal distribution of dengue cases occurring in the city of Cruzeiro, SP, and locate the census sectors where the outbreak began and how it evolved.
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INTRODUÇÃO: O vírus da dengue é transmitido pela picada do mosquito Aedes aegypti e, o atual programa de controle não atinge o objetivo de impedir sua transmissão. Este trabalho objetivou analisar a relação entre a distribuição espaço-temporal de casos de dengue e os indicadores larvários no município de Tupã, de janeiro de 2004 a dezembro de 2007. MÉTODOS: Foram construídos indicadores larvários por quarteirão e totalidade do município. Utilizou-se o método cross-lagged correlation para avaliar a correlação entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários. Foi utilizado estimador kernel para análise espacial. RESULTADOS: A correlação cruzada defasada entre casos de dengue e indicadores larvários foi significativa. Os mapas do estimador Kernel da positividade de recipientes indicam uma distribuição heterogênea, ao longo do período estudado. Nos dois anos de transmissão, a epidemia ocorreu em diferentes regiões. CONCLUSÕES: Não ficou evidenciada relação espacial entre infestação larvária e ocorrência de dengue. A incorporação de técnicas de geoprocessamento e análise espacial no programa, desde que utilizados imediatamente após a realização das atividades, podem contribuir com as ações de controle, indicando os aglomerados espaciais de maior incidência.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Inadequate dialysis causes accumulation of toxic residues that may lead to the development of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion, but several other factors could be associated with this abnormality. The purpose of this study was to evaluate clinical risk factors to asymptomatic pericardial effusion in peritoneal dialysis.This cross-sectional study included 34 patients aged a parts per thousand yen18 years on peritoneal dialysis for at least 3 months, who showed no symptomatic pericardial effusion, hepatic cirrhosis, neoplasias, lupus or amputations, none in minoxidil use. Asymptomatic pericardial effusion was diagnosed by echocardiography. Risk factors were evaluated by logistic regression and Roc curve. Significance level was set at P < 0.05.Patient age was 51 +/- A 15.9 years. of the 34 patients enrolled, 16 were men and 11 diabetic. Five of them presented pericardial effusion. Logistic regression identifies low hemoglobin level (RR 0.454 CI 95%: 0.225-0.913; P = 0.027), low phase angle (RR 0.236 CI 95%: 0.057-0.984; P = 0.048) and low Kt/V (RR 0.001 CI 95%: 0.0-0.492; P = 0.03) as risk factors to pericardial effusion. Roc curve showed that hemoglobin levels below 12.2 g/dL, Kt/V lower than 1.9 and phase angle lower than 4.5A degrees were the best cutoffs to predict pericardial effusion. Four patients showed these three parameters in the unfavorable range, and all these four patients presented pericardial effusion. The other patient with pericardial effusion had two of these parameters reduced.These findings corroborate the hypothesis that uremia plays a significant role in the pathogenesis of dialysis-associated pericardial effusion.
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Tanomaru-Filho M, Silveira GF, Reis JMSN, Bonetti-Filho I, Guerreiro-Tanomaru JM. Effect of compression load and temperature on thermomechanical tests for gutta-percha and Resilon (R). International Endodontic Journal, 44, 1019-1023, 2011.Aim To analyse a method used to evaluate the thermomechanical properties of gutta-percha and Resilon at different temperatures and compression loads.Methodology Two hundred and seventy specimens measuring 10 mm in diameter and 1.5 mm in height were made from the following materials: conventional gutta-percha (GCO). thermoplastic gutta-percha (GTP) and Resilon (R) cones (RE). After 24 h, the specimens were placed in water at 50 degrees C. 60 degrees C or 70 degrees C for 60 s. After that, specimens were placed between two glass slabs, and loads weighing 1.0, 3.0 or 5.0 kg were applied. Images of the specimens were digitized before and after the test and analysed using imaging software to determine their initial and final areas. The thermomechanical property of each material was determined by the difference between the initial and final areas of the specimens. Data were subjected to ANOVA and SNK tests at 5% significance. To verify a possible correlation between the results of the materials, linear regression coefficients (r) were calculated.Results Data showed higher flow area values for RE under all compression loads at 70 degrees C and under the 5.0 kg load at 60 degrees C (P < 0.05). Regarding gutta-percha, GTP showed higher flow under loads weighing 3.0 and 5.0 kg. at 60 and 70 degrees C (P < 0.05). GCO presented higher flow at 70 degrees C with a load of 5.0 kg. Regression analyses showed a poor linear correlation amongst the results of the materials under the different experimental conditions.Conclusion Gutta-percha and Resilon (R) cones require different compression loads and temperatures for evaluation of their thermomechanical properties. For all materials, the greatest flow occurred at 70 degrees C under a load of 5.0 kg: therefore. these parameters may be adopted when evaluating endodontic tilling materials.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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objective: To analyze bioelectrical impedance performance in detecting the presence of excess visceral fat and overweight/obesity in young Brazilians and how its values are related with them.Methods: Study sample consisted of 811 adolescents of both genders (11 to 17 years of age). Nutritional status was determined based on triceps skinfold thickness (TSF), relative body fat (bioelectrical impedance), and excess visceral fat as determined by waist circumference. Statistical analysis was performed using means, standard deviations, linear correlation, Student's t test, and ROC curve.Results: Bioelectrical impedance achieved good performance in identifying excess visceral fat associated with overweight/obesity in both genders, and was found to be more specific (male 92.4% and female 93.8%) than sensitive (male 86.1% and female 71.8%).Conclusion: Our findings support the use of bioelectrical impedance to identify the presence of excess visceral and subcutaneous fat in adolescents.
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The aim of this study was to analyze the weight at birth (BW) and adjusted at 205 (W205), 365 (W365) and 550 (W55O) days in beef buffaloes from Brazil, using two approaches: parametric, by normal distribution, and non-parametric, by kernel function, and thus estimating the genetic, environmental and phenotypic correlation among traits. Information of 5,169 animals at birth (BW), 3,792 at 205 days (W205), 3.883 at 365 days (W365) and 1,524 at 550 days of age (W550) were used. The birth weight distribution presented an evident discrepancy in relation to the normal distribution. However, W205, W365 and W550 presented normal distributions. The birth weight presented weak genetic, environmental, and phenotypic associations with the other weight measurements. on the other hand, the weight traits at 205, 365, 550 days of age showed a high genetic correlation.
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Farmers are interested in producing popcorn under organic production systems and propane flaming could be a significant component of an integrated weed management program. The objective of this study was to collect baseline information on popcorn tolerance to broadcast flaming as influenced by propane dose and crop growth stage at the time of flaming. Field experiments were conducted at the Haskell Agricultural Laboratory of the University of Nebraska, Concord, NE in 2008 and 2009 using five propane doses (0, 13, 24, 44 and 85 kg ha(-1)) applied at the 2-leaf, 5-leaf and 7-leaf growth stages. Propane was applied using a custom-built research flamer driven at a constant speed of 6.4 km h(-1). Crop response to propane dose was described by log-logistic models on the basis of visual estimates of crop injury, yield components (plants m(-2), ears plant(-1), kernels cob(-1) and 100-kernel weight) and grain yield. Popcorn response to flaming was influenced by the crop growth stage and propane dose. Based on various parameters evaluated, popcorn flamed at the 5-leaf showed the highest tolerance while the 2-leaf was the most susceptible stage. The maximum yield reductions were 45%, 9% and 16% for the 2-leaf, 5-leaf and 7-leaf stages, respectively. In addition, propane doses that resulted in a 5% yield loss were 23 kg ha(-1) for the 2-leaf and 7-leaf and 30 kg ha(-1) for the 5-leaf stage. Flaming has a potential to be used effectively in organic popcorn production if properly used. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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Indirect ELISA and IFAT have been reported to be more sensitive and specific than agglutination tests. However, MAT is cheaper, easier than the others and does not need special equipment. The purpose of this study was to compare an enzyme linked immunosorbent assay using crude rhoptries of Toxoplasma gondii as coating wells (r-ELISA) with indirect fluorescence antibody test (IFAT) and modified agglutination test (MAT) to detect anti-T. gondii antibodies in sera of experimentally infected pigs. Ten mixed breed pigs between 6.5 and 7.5 weeks old were used. All pigs were negative for the presence of T. gondii antibodies by IFAT (titre < 16), r-ELISA (OD < 0.295) and MAT (titre < 16). Animals received 7 × 107 viable tachyzoites of the RH strain by intramuscular (IM) route at day 0. Serum samples were collected at days -6, 0, 7, 14, 21, 28, 35, 42, 50, and 57. IFAT detected anti-T. gondii antibodies earlier than r-ELISA and MAT. The average of antibody levels was higher at day 35 in IFAT (Log10 = 2.9) and in MAT (Log10 = 3.5), and at day 42 in r-ELISA (OD = 0.797). The antibody levels remained high through the 57th day after inoculation in MAT, and there was a decrease tendency in r-ELISA and IFAT. IFAT was used as gold standard and r-ELISA demonstrated a higher prevalence (73.3%), sensitivity (94.3%), negative predictive value (83.3%), and accuracy (95.6%) than MAT. Kappa agreements among tests were calculated, and the best results were shown by r-ELISA × IFAT (κ = 0.88, p < 0.001). Cross-reaction with Sarcocystis miescheriana was investigated in r-ELISA and OD mean was 0.163 ± 0.035 (n = 65). Additionally, none of the animals inoculated with Sarcocystis reacted positively in r-ELISA. Our results indicate that r-ELISA could be a good method for serological detection of T. gondii infection in pigs. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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This paper presents a mathematical model and a methodology to solve a transmission network expansion planning problem considering uncertainty in demand and generation. The methodology used to solve the problem, finds the optimal transmission network expansion plan that allows the power system to operate adequately in an environment with uncertainty. The model presented results in an optimization problem that is solved using a specialized genetic algorithm. The results obtained for known systems from the literature show that cheaper plans can be found satisfying the uncertainty in demand and generation. ©2008 IEEE.
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The post-processing of association rules is a difficult task, since a large number of patterns can be obtained. Many approaches have been developed to overcome this problem, as objective measures and clustering, which are respectively used to: (i) highlight the potentially interesting knowledge in domain; (ii) structure the domain, organizing the rules in groups that contain, somehow, similar knowledge. However, objective measures don't reduce nor organize the collection of rules, making the understanding of the domain difficult. On the other hand, clustering doesn't reduce the exploration space nor direct the user to find interesting knowledge, making the search for relevant knowledge not so easy. This work proposes the PAR-COM (Post-processing Association Rules with Clustering and Objective Measures) methodology that, combining clustering and objective measures, reduces the association rule exploration space directing the user to what is potentially interesting. Thereby, PAR-COM minimizes the user's effort during the post-processing process.
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It was verified that the asteroid Magnya has some physical and chemical characteristics similar to the bodies from Vesta family. However, astronomical observations revealed that Magnya is distant from these bodies. In the present work, we assumed that Magnya originated from Vesta and we try to justify its current distant orbital location taking into account the effects of close encounters between Magnya and Vesta. The methodology adopted involved an analytical approach considering the technique of the gravity assisted maneuver, also known as swing-by. We found that the energy variation achieved through a single swing-by between Vesta and Magnya are very small when compared to the variation that would be required to change the orbit of Magnya. The effects of multiple close encounters were also considered and discussed. We concluded that the possibility of multiple encounters is limited, and therefore, that Magnya should suffer other perturbations (such as resonances, collisions or close encounters with other bodies, for instance) that would provide the supposed change in its orbit.