Probability distribution models for daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil

Two stochastic models have been fitted to daily rainfall data for an interior station of Brazil. Of these two models, the results show a better fit to describe the data, by truncated negative probability model in comparison with Markov chain probability model. Kolmogorov-Smirnov test is applied for significance for these models. © 1983 Springer-Verlag.

Modeling a spatially restricted distribution in the Neotropics: How the size of calibration area affects the performance of five presence-only methods

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Recent and future environmental suitability to dengue fever in Brazil using species distribution model

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Implementing new northernmost records to modelling the distribution of Hypsiboas caingua (Anura: Hylidae) in South America

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Phylogeography of endemic toads and post-Pliocene persistence of the Brazilian Atlantic Forest

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A compound model for the origin of Earth's water

One of the most important subjects of debate in the formation of the solar system is the origin of Earth's water. Comets have long been considered as the most likely source of the delivery of water to Earth. However, elemental and isotopic arguments suggest a very small contribution from these objects. Other sources have also been proposed, among which local adsorption of water vapor onto dust grains in the primordial nebula and delivery through planetesimals and planetary embryos have become more prominent. However, no sole source of water provides a satisfactory explanation for Earth's water as a whole. In view of that, using numerical simulations, we have developed a compound model incorporating both the principal endogenous and exogenous theories, and investigating their implications for terrestrial planet formation and water delivery. Comets are also considered in the final analysis, as it is likely that at least some of Earth's water has cometary origin. We analyze our results comparing two different water distribution models, and complement our study using the D/H ratio, finding possible relative contributions from each source and focusing on planets formed in the habitable zone. We find that the compound model plays an important role by showing greater advantage in the amount and time of water delivery in Earth-like planets. © 2013. The American Astronomical Society. All rights reserved.

Estudos da formação de planetas terrestres

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Diversificação das espécies de Rhinella do grupo crucifer (Anura, Bufonidae) na Mata Atlântica

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evidence for dark matter in the inner Milky Way

The ubiquitous presence of dark matter in the Universe is today a central tenet in modern cosmology and astrophysics(1). Throughout the Universe, the evidence for dark matter is compelling in dwarfs, spiral galaxies, galaxy clusters as well as at cosmological scales. However, it has been historically difficult to pin down the dark matter contribution to the total mass density in the Milky Way, particularly in the innermost regions of the Galaxy and in the solar neighbourhood(2). Here we present an up-to-date compilation of Milky Way rotation curve measurements(3-13), and compare it with state-of-the-art baryonic mass distribution models(14-26). We show that current data strongly disfavour baryons as the sole contribution to the Galactic mass budget, even inside the solar circle. Our findings demonstrate the existence of dark matter in the inner Galaxy without making any assumptions about its distribution. We anticipate that this result will compel new model-independent constraints on the dark matter local density and profile, thus reducing uncertainties on direct and indirect dark matter searches, and will help reveal the structure and evolution of the Galaxy.

Dinâmica populacional, distribuição espacial e plano de amostragem sequencial de Euschistus heros (Fabricius, 1794) (Heteroptera: Pentatomidae) em cultivares de soja

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Allocation of protective devices in distribution circuits using nonlinear programming models and genetic algorithms

The optimized allocation of protective devices in strategic points of the circuit improves the quality of the energy supply and the system reliability index. This paper presents a nonlinear integer programming (NLIP) model with binary variables, to deal with the problem of protective device allocation in the main feeder and all branches of an overhead distribution circuit, to improve the reliability index and to provide customers with service of high quality and reliability. The constraints considered in the problem take into account technical and economical limitations, such as coordination problems of serial protective devices, available equipment, the importance of the feeder and the circuit topology. The use of genetic algorithms (GAs) is proposed to solve this problem, using a binary representation that does (1) or does not (0) show allocation of protective devices (reclosers, sectionalizers and fuses) in predefined points of the circuit. Results are presented for a real circuit (134 busses), with the possibility of protective device allocation in 29 points. Also the ability of the algorithm in finding good solutions while improving significantly the indicators of reliability is shown. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Distribution line models analysis for loss calculation within three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms

Three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms, as any tool for power systems analysis, require reliable impedances and models in order to obtain accurate results. Kron's reduction procedure, which embeds neutral wire influence into phase wires, has shown good results when three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on current summation method were used. However, Kron's reduction can harm reliabilities of some algorithms whose iterative processes need loss calculation (power summation method). In this work, three three-phase three-wire power flow algorithms based on power summation method, will be compared with a three-phase four-wire approach based on backward-forward technique and current summation. Two four-wire unbalanced medium-voltage distribution networks will be analyzed and results will be presented and discussed. © 2004 IEEE.

A proposal for reliability evaluation of components on electric power distribution system integrating probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems

The system reliability depends on the reliability of its components itself. Therefore, it is necessary a methodology capable of inferring the state of functionality of these components to establish reliable indices of quality. Allocation models for maintenance and protective devices, among others, have been used in order to improve the quality and availability of services on electric power distribution systems. This paper proposes a methodology for assessing the reliability of distribution system components in an integrated way, using probabilistic models and fuzzy inference systems to infer about the operation probability of each component. © 2012 IEEE.

A Time-domain Harmonic Power-Flow Analysis in Electrical Energy Distribution Networks, Using Norton Models for Non-linear Loading

The purpose of this paper is to present the application of a three-phase harmonic propagation analysis time-domain tool, using the Norton model to approach the modeling of non-linear loads, making the harmonics currents flow more appropriate to the operation analysis and to the influence of mitigation elements analysis. This software makes it possible to obtain results closer to the real distribution network, considering voltages unbalances, currents imbalances and the application of mitigation elements for harmonic distortions. In this scenario, a real case study with network data and equipments connected to the network will be presented, as well as the modeling of non-linear loads based on real data obtained from some PCCs (Points of Common Coupling) of interests for a distribution company.

Semiparametric modeling of the spatial distribution of occupational accident risk in the casual labor market, Piracicaba, southeast Brazil

The objective of this study was to estimate the spatial distribution of work accident risk in the informal work market in the urban zone of an industrialized city in southeast Brazil and to examine concomitant effects of age, gender, and type of occupation after controlling for spatial risk variation. The basic methodology adopted was that of a population-based case-control study with particular interest focused on the spatial location of work. Cases were all casual workers in the city suffering work accidents during a one-year period; controls were selected from the source population of casual laborers by systematic random sampling of urban homes. The spatial distribution of work accidents was estimated via a semiparametric generalized additive model with a nonparametric bidimensional spline of the geographical coordinates of cases and controls as the nonlinear spatial component, and including age, gender, and occupation as linear predictive variables in the parametric component. We analyzed 1,918 cases and 2,245 controls between 1/11/2003 and 31/10/2004 in Piracicaba, Brazil. Areas of significantly high and low accident risk were identified in relation to mean risk in the study region (p < 0.01). Work accident risk for informal workers varied significantly in the study area. Significant age, gender, and occupational group effects on accident risk were identified after correcting for this spatial variation. A good understanding of high-risk groups and high-risk regions underpins the formulation of hypotheses concerning accident causality and the development of effective public accident prevention policies.