Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Processamento e interpretação de dados 2D e 3D de GPR :aplicações no imageamento de feições kársticas e estruturas de dissolução no campo de petróleo de Fazenda Belém-CE

In Fazenda Belém oil field (Potiguar Basin, Ceará State, Brazil) occur frequently sinkholes and sudden terrain collapses associated to an unconsolidated sedimentary cap covering the Jandaíra karst. This research was carried out in order to understand the mechanisms of generation of these collapses. The main tool used was Ground Penetrating Radar (GPR). This work is developed twofold: one aspect concerns methodology improvements in GPR data processing whilst another aspect concerns the geological study of the Jandaíra karst. This second aspect was strongly supported both by the analysis of outcropping karst structures (in another regions of Potiguar Basin) and by the interpretation of radargrams from the subsurface karst in Fazenda Belém. It was designed and tested an adequate flux to process GPR data which was adapted from an usual flux to process seismic data. The changes were introduced to take into account important differences between GPR and Reflection Seismic methods, in particular: poor coupling between source and ground, mixed phase of the wavelet, low signal-to-noise ratio, monochannel acquisition, and high influence of wave propagation effects, notably dispersion. High frequency components of the GPR pulse suffer more pronounced effects of attenuation than low frequency components resulting in resolution losses in radargrams. In Fazenda Belém, there is a stronger need of an suitable flux to process GPR data because both the presence of a very high level of aerial events and the complexity of the imaged subsurface karst structures. The key point of the processing flux was an improvement in the correction of the attenuation effects on the GPR pulse based on their influence on the amplitude and phase spectra of GPR signals. In low and moderate losses dielectric media the propagated signal suffers significant changes only in its amplitude spectrum; that is, the phase spectrum of the propagated signal remains practically unaltered for the usual travel time ranges. Based on this fact, it is shown using real data that the judicious application of the well known tools of time gain and spectral balancing can efficiently correct the attenuation effects. The proposed approach can be applied in heterogeneous media and it does not require the precise knowledge of the attenuation parameters of the media. As an additional benefit, the judicious application of spectral balancing promotes a partial deconvolution of the data without changing its phase. In other words, the spectral balancing acts in a similar way to a zero phase deconvolution. In GPR data the resolution increase obtained with spectral balancing is greater than those obtained with spike and predictive deconvolutions. The evolution of the Jandaíra karst in Potiguar Basin is associated to at least three events of subaerial exposition of the carbonatic plataform during the Turonian, Santonian, and Campanian. In Fazenda Belém region, during the mid Miocene, the Jandaíra karst was covered by continental siliciclastic sediments. These sediments partially filled the void space associated to the dissolution structures and fractures. Therefore, the development of the karst in this region was attenuated in comparison to other places in Potiguar Basin where this karst is exposed. In Fazenda Belém, the generation of sinkholes and terrain collapses are controlled mainly by: (i) the presence of an unconsolidated sedimentary cap which is thick enough to cover completely the karst but with sediment volume lower than the available space associated to the dissolution structures in the karst; (ii) the existence of important structural of SW-NE and NW-SE alignments which promote a localized increase in the hydraulic connectivity allowing the channeling of underground water, thus facilitating the carbonatic dissolution; and (iii) the existence of a hydraulic barrier to the groundwater flow, associated to the Açu-4 Unity. The terrain collapse mechanisms in Fazenda Belém occur according to the following temporal evolution. The meteoric water infiltrates through the unconsolidated sedimentary cap and promotes its remobilization to the void space associated with the dissolution structures in Jandaíra Formation. This remobilization is initiated at the base of the sedimentary cap where the flow increases its abrasion due to a change from laminar to turbulent flow regime when the underground water flow reaches the open karst structures. The remobilized sediments progressively fill from bottom to top the void karst space. So, the void space is continuously migrated upwards ultimately reaching the surface and causing the sudden observed terrain collapses. This phenomenon is particularly active during the raining season, when the water table that normally is located in the karst may be temporarily located in the unconsolidated sedimentary cap

Estudo sísmico no açude Tucunduba, Senador Sá, CE

The Tucunduba Dam, is west of Fortaleza, Ceará State. The seismic monitoring of the area, with an analogical station and seven digital stations, had beginning on June 11, 1997. The digital stations, operated from June to November 1997. The data collected in the period of digital monitoring was analyzed for determination of hypocenters, focal mechanisms, and shear-wave anisotropy analysis. For determination of hypocenters, it was possible to find an active zone of nearly 1 km in length, with depth between 4.5 and 5.2 km. A 60AZ/88SE fault plane was determined using the least-squares method and hypocenters of a selected set of 16 earthquakes recorded. Focal mechanisms were determined, in the composite fault plane solution, a strike-slip fault, trending nearly E-W, was found. Single fault plane solutions were obteined to some earthquakes presented mean values of 65 (azimuth), and 80 (dip). Shear-wave anisotropy was found in the data. Polarization directions and travel time delays, between S spliting waves, were determined. It was not possible to obtain any conclusion on the cause of the observed anisotropy. It is not clear if there is correlation between seismicity and mapped faults in the area, although the directions obtained starting from the hipocentros and focal mechanism are they are consistent with directions, observed in the area, photo, topographic and fractures directions observed in the area

Utilização de sismos regionais para a determinação de um modelo 1D de velocidades da onda P na Província Borborema - NE do Brasil

In this work it was performed a study to obtain parameters for an 1D regional velocity model for the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. It was used earthquakes occurred between 2001 and 2013 with magnitude greater than 2.9 mb either from epicentres determined from local seismic networks or by back azimuth determination, when possible. We chose seven events which occurred in the main seismic areas in the Borborema Province. The selected events were recorded in up to 74 seismic stations from the following networks: RSISNE, INCT-ET, João Câmara – RN, São Rafael – RN, Caruaru - PE, São Caetano - PE, Castanhão - CE, Santana do Acarau - CE, Taipu – RN e Sobral – CE, and the RCBR (IRIS/USGS—GSN). For the determination of the model parameters were inverted via a travel-time table and its fit. These model parameters were compared with other known model (global and regional) and have improved the epicentral determination. This final set of parameters model, we called MBB is laterally homogeneous with an upper crust at 11,45 km depth and total crustal thickness of 33,9 km. The P-wave velocity in the upper crust was estimated at 6.0 km/s and 6.64 km/s for it lower part. The P-wave velocity in the upper mantle we estimated at 8.21 km/s with an VP/VS ratio of approximately 1.74.

Utilização de sismos regionais para a determinação de um modelo 1D de velocidades da onda P na Província Borborema - NE do Brasil

In this work it was performed a study to obtain parameters for an 1D regional velocity model for the Borborema Province, NE Brazil. It was used earthquakes occurred between 2001 and 2013 with magnitude greater than 2.9 mb either from epicentres determined from local seismic networks or by back azimuth determination, when possible. We chose seven events which occurred in the main seismic areas in the Borborema Province. The selected events were recorded in up to 74 seismic stations from the following networks: RSISNE, INCT-ET, João Câmara – RN, São Rafael – RN, Caruaru - PE, São Caetano - PE, Castanhão - CE, Santana do Acarau - CE, Taipu – RN e Sobral – CE, and the RCBR (IRIS/USGS—GSN). For the determination of the model parameters were inverted via a travel-time table and its fit. These model parameters were compared with other known model (global and regional) and have improved the epicentral determination. This final set of parameters model, we called MBB is laterally homogeneous with an upper crust at 11,45 km depth and total crustal thickness of 33,9 km. The P-wave velocity in the upper crust was estimated at 6.0 km/s and 6.64 km/s for it lower part. The P-wave velocity in the upper mantle we estimated at 8.21 km/s with an VP/VS ratio of approximately 1.74.