Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Arquitetura residencial em João Pessoa-PB a experiência moderna nos anos 1970

In the mid-1980s, the magazine Projeto published the Actual Brazilian Architecture catalogue presenting texts by Hugo Segawa and Ruth Verde Zein with a corpus of works and engaged architects of the 1960s and 1970s. To comprehend the Brazilian architectural production post-1964, in those years of the 1980s, became a significant mission to reactivate the Brazilian architectural debate weakened by the military dictatorship. In his doctoral thesis Spadoni (2003) deals with the different ways which characterizes the Brazilian architectural production of the 1970s. Marked by inventiveness, this production was in tune with the modern thinking and in the transition period between the 1970s and the 1980s it synchronized with the international debate about post-modern architecture. Considering Spadoni s doctoral thesis, this work deals with the modern experience observed in the one-family-houses built in the seventies in João Pessoa. Some modern experiences were not clear outside, to observe it, it was necessary to search for the type of experience into the spatial disposition and of the know-how constructive, because into the appearance some houses not make explicit the use of the modern language. Other observed experiences allude to the repertoire of the Brazilian period in the years 1940s-1960s, to the experience of the modern architecture in São Paulo of the 1960s, to the experiences in which the climate of the Northeastern region strongly influenced the architectural conception. We can also find in a reduced number of houses a particular experience: it refers to experiences that expose the constructive doing, which leave the material apparent and apply to the residential type the experience of the industrial pre-fabricated buildings

Caminhos e descaminhos dos municípios produtores de petróleo: o papel dos royalties no desempenho das finanças públicas municipais no estado do Rio Grande do Norte

It analyzes the magnitude, the nature and the direction of public revenues and the public expenses in oil and natural gas producing municipalities in the state of Rio Grande do Norte in the post-constituent period, and, more precisely, from the approval of Law 9.478/97, called Oil Law . It argues the fiscal federalism normative theory, the typology and the role of the intergovernamental transferences in the performance of the public finances of the local governments. Shows that the economy of Rio Grande do Norte went through deep social-economic changes in the last few decades, among which includes the discovery of the oil and the natural gas and its importance for the growth of the industrial and services sectors. It points out that the increase of the production and the international price of the oil contributed for the growth in revenues of royalties and the special participation in the beneficiary cities, what did not mean an automatic increase in the resources destined to the investment and in the quality on the provision of the goods and services come back toward the local development. On the contrary, the main conclusion of the work is that the trajectory of the oil producing municipalities is marked by paths and embezzlements in the performance of the public finances and in the provision of public goods and services. Paths, that lead to the improvement of the performance of the public finances and the quality of the public goods and services. Embezzlements, that lead to the inefficiency in the provision of goods and services and the capture of the public resources. That is, the fiscal decentralization is a necessary condition, however not enough to improve the amount and the quality of the public goods and services given by these municipalities. For that it is necessary to advance in the fiscal federalism normative theories, in search of optimum model of federalism in local governments where still predominated by patrimonialism, clientelism, fiscal illusion and the capture of the public resources in benefit of the private interests

Retratos, imagens, letras e numeros colados nas paredes:representaçãoes sociais de escola para ribeirinhos dos rios Môa e Azul - Acre

Remote Communities. Absence of artifacts and minimization of the exacerbated consumption of modernity. The desire which spread beyond what reality can provide. Expressions like this are present in this paper which focus in the social representations of school built by residents who live at the riversides of Môa and Azul Rivers, in Mâncio Lima, Acre State. To do so, we used the methodological contribution of the semi-structured interview, observation of the place while a natural inhabitant of the region, and also photos analyses of local reality. A key feature of the riverside homes is the glued paper on the walls of houses forming a panel set of portraits, pictures, letters and numbers for all appreciated. Regardless of whether or not read, there is admiration for the color of the images, the layout of the letters, and the things of the city awakening the desire to obtain school knowledge. The resident of this Amazon region maintains a close relationship between thinking, acting and feeling living harmonically with nature that connects them to the ideal landscape which is revisited by the graphic material that attracts wondering what exists beyond the shores of the river, beyond the horizon of green forests. It is a life entirely accomplished by the imaginary where exist a framed landscape merged and confused by the real and the supernatural, in which men and gods walk together by the forest, sailing by the rivers and seek a possible aesthetic between the real and ideal. The Theory of Social Representations spread by Serge Moscovici (2005) and Jodelet (2001) guided our gaze on the understanding what the school is and its representation to the riversides, as well to reveal the relation they practice with the knowledge that is spread by the mystification and the knowledge that is practice daily. Based in Bardin s thematic analysis (2004) we tried to raise such contents combining them in five analysis categories

Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Competitividade da cadeia produtiva do coco: visão dos extensionistas da EMATER/RN na mesorregião leste Potiguar do Rio Grande do Norte

The present study presents an investigation concerning the factors that, in the perception of the extension of Emater/RN they affect the competitiveness of the productive chain of the coconut in Rio Grande do Norte. For so much it is used of a theory structured starting from the several aspects that delineate the competitiveness and your respective factors, besides the aspects that compose the productive chain of the coconut in Rio Grande do Norte. The research was accomplished at the mesorregião Leste Potiguar of Rio Grande do Norte, territory of larger index of coconut production in the state. The used methodological approach was the one of descriptive exploratory research together to the conduction of a rising type Survey. The field research obtained 35 valid questionnaires, whose interviewees were the extension of Emater/RN in performance in the municipal districts that compose the mesorregião Leste Potiguar of Rio Grande do Norte. The results allow to end that in the perception of the extension, the level of competitiveness of the productive chain of the coconut in Rio Grande do Norte is still low, presenting as larger fetter the low price of the coconut and the high costs of the productive process, being recommended a larger support to the producing of coconut in relation to technical attendance, incentive actions to the quality, understanding with relationship to the benefits of the creation of partnerships, associations and cooperatives, as well as the promotion of the knowledge of the productive chain of the coconut in Rio Grande do Norte for subsequent ends of all the agents' of that chain training with relationship to the importance of the development of competitive advantages

Estudo da Potencialidade da produção de tijolos de adobe misturado com outros materiais: uma alternativa de baixo custo para a construção civil

The production of the red pottery brick, made traditionally with clay, is a technique that is already stabled. However, in spite of the little complexity that involves the conventional process of these bricks production, it are exposed to many problems that begin in the fase of exploration of the mines, the problems get worse because of the lack of the clay's characterization, and they continue through the steps of the dough preparation, conformation of the products, the drying and the burning process. The wastefulness is shown and so is the low quality of the material produced. Among other factors, the high use of energy in the burning makes the cost of this material inaccessible to the low income consumer. Besides this, the destruction of the environment around the mines and the use of native vegetation to produce wood - the most used fuel in the pottery industry - make serious environmental damage. The production technique of a new type of simple brick (adobe), that has low cost and no environmental damage, can be the viable altemative to lower the cost of this part of the civil construction, and, consequently, in the building of cheaper houses. In this paper, the results of the mechanical resistance of the adobe brick are shown, using in its composition, clay, natural vegetable fibers, cement and plaster in a process that is completely handcrafted and manual. It is intented to make clear that are possible alternatives to be put in practice, with the simple process, using "raw earth" that has been used in the construction of houses in thousands of years, trying to solve these severe problems. Analysis and tests were performed to find results that could prove the possibility of the utilization of this kind of material. Other studies are in progress, and the new researches are necessary to enrich this work, but it stays the certainty that there is potential to produce bricks from adobe, as an alternative that has low cost to civil construction

Estudo térmico e de materiais de um compósito à base de gesso e EPS para construção de casas populares

A housing unit was built to study the thermal performance, and of material using a composite made of gypsum and EPS ground. We used two techniques of construction, using blocks, and filling on the spot. Two compositions of the composite were studied. The blocks were fixed using conventional mortar. In the technical of filling on the spot were used PET bottles up inside the walls to provide mechanical and thermal resistance. Compression tests were realized according to the ABNT standard of sealing bricks. It is going to be shown an analysis of the thermal comfort through the use of thermocouples placed on the walls of the building, internally and externally. The manufacturing viability of houses, using recyclable materials, through the use of composite materials proposed will be demonstrated. The constructive aspects showing the advantages and disadvantages of the technique used also will be broached. The block used presents structural functions and thermal insulating, is low cost and represents an alternative to the use of EPS and PET bottles which are materials that end up occupying much space in the landfills, giving than an ecologically correct use. The results of thermal analysis shows the thermal comfort provided by the composite by the obtainment of a difference between the internal and external surfaces of the walls more exposed to the sun around 7º C. The average temperature of the air inside the building, around 28.0 º C was below the zone of thermal comfort recommended for countries with hot weather

Levantamento exploratório da composição e frações proteicas do leite bovino em propriedades leiteras

The direct relationship with the processing, industrial yield and price of milk, the importance of the centesimal composition of milk and their protein fractions has increased for both the dairy industry and for the producers, so it is important to identify the possible causes on variation of these components. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effect of the seasons, order of calving and lactation phase on milk composition and protein fractions in dairy farms in the Agreste and Leste meso-regions, of Rio Grande do Norte State (RN). Milk samples were taken in seven milk farms directly from the bulk tanks except for one farm where samples were taken from higher milking cows producers and heifers. The experiment was done in seven properties with milk samples taken directly from the bulk tanks and in one property were collected from higher production cows and heifers. Composition analyses were carried out for both experiments and sensorial trial was performed for the second experiment only. The data results were submitted to analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Tukey test performed for 5% significance level. In the first experiment was observed response of the seasons, dry and rainy season; while in the second, the effect of the order of calving and lactation phase had influence on milk composition and protein fractions. There was significant response (p < 0.05) for season effects but due to farms. The rainy season had higher averages in the protein, lactose, total solids and nonfat dry extract. Multiparous cows had higher CCS, NUL and PCAS milk contents; while, first calving heifers showed higher average for the sensory attribute, color of milk. The final third of lactation was responsible for the elevation of the levels of almost all milk components and their protein fractions

Alterações ambientais em Parelhas, Rio Grande do Norte: metais pesados em sedimentos de drenagens e percepção de comunidades rurais em relação a mudanças na paisagem

The conservation of natural resources is essential and constitutes the main subject of many researches, which characterize important aspects concerning the environmental alterations in the ground, water, landscape and socioeconomic information. This study aimed to investigate the anthropogenic input of heavy metals in the environment, in the area of the Parelhas dump site and in part of the Seridó River and to determine the concentration of heavy metals in the sediments. This can result in risk to the environment and human health. In addition, we sought to establish the socioeconomic profile of rural communities adjacent to Seridó River and to comprehend the perception of these dwellers about the changes in the places they live. The area of this study is located in the city of Parelhas/RN, in the centralsouthern part of the State, in the micro-region of the Oriental Seridó. This area comprehends the place where the dump site is located, next to RN 086, the Caldeirão dam, the Quintos river called by local citizens Caldeirão creek and part of Seridó river, perpetuated by the Boqueirão dam, which crosses the city and it includes the rural communities of Almas, Domingas, Sussuarana II and Colonos. Regarding the study with bottom sediments, the samples were collected and taken to the laboratory of geochemistry, where they were dried, sieved, weighted and submitted to weak acid attack. The analysis of heavy metals was held by Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer - Flame AAS. We applied 23 closed questionnaires constituted by 38 questions to collect informations in the rural communities, oriented to establish the socioeconomic profile and the environmental perception of the participants. The participants were distributed in the communities of Almas (1), Domingas (2), Sussuarana II (10) and Colonos (10). Most of them presented similar socioeconomic profiles. They are from 45 to 60 years old and live in these localities for 20 to 30 years or more. The families are composed by 3 or 4 people; the agriculture is the main activity, livestock is the secondary and 48% of them earn the minimal wage. Regarding the environmental perception, the participants can realize some changes in vegetation, soil, water and landscape. People living longer in the community, and with more years of experience on the local reality can perceive the depletion of the soil, pastures and changes in the landscape. These changes portray how the place was previously and what it represents today. The perception of these changes, besides the environmental ones, includes others concerning the increasing number of dwellers in the last years, as well as the number of houses. The changes happened through activities developed by the dwellers over the years, including agricultural practices, livestock, grass planting and even the cultivation of cotton. The study provided the acquisition of new data about the environmental reality of this region. It can subsidize the definition of public policies that can be implemented from the perspective of conservation of water resources and of the coexistence and survival of man in the semi-arid

Análise da evolução costeira do litoral setentrional do estado do rio grande do norte, região sob influência da indústria petrolífera

The northern coast of Rio Grande do Norte State is characterized by strong changes in coastal morphology, caused by various geological and climatic factors. In this region are installed the main socio-economic activities of the State, highlighting the oil industry, which exerts much of its activities in the coastal area studied. Erosion is a constant problem in this region because it affects the entire local populace to the destruction of houses and trade, rendering tourism, affecting the livelihood activities and industrial activities. The greatest risk is related to environmental damage that can be caused by the oil spill in this region. To understand what determines the changes in coastal morphology this Doctoral Thesis is proposed to identify the factors at local, regional and even global corroborate coastal dynamics to this coast in question. For this study, used several different products and tools for interpreting the conditions of the erosive effect that dominates the whole northern coast of the State, in an attempt to quantify and describe the causes and effects that affect the entire coastal zone monitored. The development of activities is built into the projects Rede 05 PETROMAR (CTPETRO-FINEP/PETROBRAS/CNPq), PETRORISCO, HIDROSEMA, PETROMAR e Rede 05/04 POTMAR (FNDCT/CTPETROFINEP/ CNPq), in the activities of multidisciplinary and inter-features in issues involving environmental monitoring and oil activity

Vende-se uma vila: análise intra-urbana das vilas na Vila de Ponta Negra e no bairro de Nova Descoberta - Zona Sul de Natal

This dissertation is about low-income rental housing vilas in the South Zone in the city of Natal. Vilas are a string of houses, built privately in an urban plot of land, usually a backyard, facing a narrow street beco. This type of housing is originated in the 19th century in the Brazilian scenario. In Natal, this has become more popular since the late 1960s. This study is aimed at analyzing the urban integration of the vilas, considering that these house a low income population, vis à vis the speedy development of Natal s most economically dynamic area. The study starts with a discussion of the production of space, taking into consideration categories such as use value, exchange value, commodity and land rent. Field work was undertaken through structured interviews with dwellers of vilas in Nova Descoberta and Ponta Negra neighbourhoods. Owners of vilas were also interviewed. Data collected indicated worrisome housing conditions. Vilas, in the areas researched, are increasingly becoming unwelcome, constituting guetos in a place where landscape is changing rapidly. Gentrification is fast under way, first because of rise in rent and taxes; second because of general rise in living costs

Recanto do vale do pium: condomínio de habitações com ênfase no baixo impacto ambiental e no desempenho térmico do ambiente construído

This work describes the design process of a small recreational gated community in Pium, Nísia Floresta/RN, from concept to final design stages, with emphasis on low environmental impact, thermal comfort and the spatial quality of housing. The process consisted in a review of the literature and relevant standards, studies of design references and architectural programming. The project development was initially focused on the project’s feasibility, with the definition of the number of units, implantation, size and location of the dwellings and the common areas of the development. Two types of houses (four low rise and five duplex units) have been proposed in order to attend the premises of architectural programming. The conception of the architectural design began with the rooms’ zoning according to the lots. This resulted in the pre-selection of three alternatives that were evaluated in terms of spatial quality and environmental performance. The development of sketches focused on the envelope consistent with the bioclimatic guidelines and on the language of the compatible proposal with the lowest possible environmental impact of the building system, which resulted in the selection of the eucalyptus wood type. During the working drawings, the Quality Technical Regulation for the Level of Energy Efficiency Residential Buildings (RTQ -R) was adopted for the evaluation of the envelope, which resulted in "B" level of efficiency for the first case. After minor adjustments, mainly in frames, the efficiency level rose to "A", demonstrating that early project decisions contributed to the envelope energy performance. Besides the design of the two types of units, the final proposal of the gated community includes the design of the equipment for the common areas (entrance, multipurpose room and support and service sector), and the descriptive texts explaining the project and construction’s details.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread