Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Predição de promotores de Bacillus subtilis usando técnicas de aprendizado de máquina

One of the most important goals of bioinformatics is the ability to identify genes in uncharacterized DNA sequences on world wide database. Gene expression on prokaryotes initiates when the RNA-polymerase enzyme interacts with DNA regions called promoters. In these regions are located the main regulatory elements of the transcription process. Despite the improvement of in vitro techniques for molecular biology analysis, characterizing and identifying a great number of promoters on a genome is a complex task. Nevertheless, the main drawback is the absence of a large set of promoters to identify conserved patterns among the species. Hence, a in silico method to predict them on any species is a challenge. Improved promoter prediction methods can be one step towards developing more reliable ab initio gene prediction methods. In this work, we present an empirical comparison of Machine Learning (ML) techniques such as Na¨ýve Bayes, Decision Trees, Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks, Voted Perceptron, PART, k-NN and and ensemble approaches (Bagging and Boosting) to the task of predicting Bacillus subtilis. In order to do so, we first built two data set of promoter and nonpromoter sequences for B. subtilis and a hybrid one. In order to evaluate of ML methods a cross-validation procedure is applied. Good results were obtained with methods of ML like SVM and Naïve Bayes using B. subtilis. However, we have not reached good results on hybrid database

Avaliação de desempenho da codificação wavelet em canais seletivos em frequência

Wavelet coding has emerged as an alternative coding technique to minimize the fading effects of wireless channels. This work evaluates the performance of wavelet coding, in terms of bit error probability, over time-varying, frequency-selective multipath Rayleigh fading channels. The adopted propagation model follows the COST207 norm, main international standards reference for GSM, UMTS, and EDGE applications. The results show the wavelet coding s efficiency against the inter symbolic interference which characterizes these communication scenarios. This robustness of the presented technique enables its usage in different environments, bringing it one step closer to be applied in practical wireless communication systems

Efeitos de acoplamentos biquadráticos e campos aleatórios em vidros de spins

In this work we have studied the effects of random biquadratic and random fields in spin-glass models using the replica method. The effect of a random biquadratic coupling was studied in two spin-1 spin-glass models: in one case the interactions occur between pairs of spins, whereas in the second one the interactions occur between p spins and the limit p > oo is considered. Both couplings (spin glass and biquadratic) have zero-mean Gaussian probability distributions. In the first model, the replica-symmetric assumption reveals that the system presents two pha¬ses, namely, paramagnetic and spin-glass, separated by a continuous transition line. The stability analysis of the replica-symmetric solution yields, besides the usual instability associated with the spin-glass ordering, a new phase due to the random biquadratic cou¬plings between the spins. For the case p oo, the replica-symmetric assumption yields again only two phases, namely, paramagnetic and quadrupolar. In both these phases the spin-glass parameter is zero. Besides, it is shown that they are stable under the Almeida-Thouless stability analysis. One of them presents negative entropy at low temperatures. We developed one step of replica simmetry breaking and noticed that a new phase, the biquadratic glass phase, emerge. In this way we have obtained the correct phase diagram, with.three first-order transition lines. These lines merges in a common triple point. The effects of random fields were studied in the Sherrington-Kirkpatrick model consi¬dered in the presence of an external random magnetic field following a trimodal distribu¬tion {P{hi) = p+S(hi - h0) +Po${hi) +pS(hi + h0))- It is shown that the border of the ferromagnetic phase may present, for conveniently chosen values of p0 and hQ, first-order phase transitions, as well as tricritical points at finite temperatures. It is verified that the first-order phase transitions are directly related to the dilution in the fields: the extensions of these transitions are reduced for increasing values of po- In fact, the threshold value pg, above which all phase transitions are continuous, is calculated analytically. The stability analysis of the replica-symmetric solution is performed and the regions of validity of such a solution are identified

Recuperação e purificação do antígeno 503 de Leishmania i. chagasi expresso em E. coli e remoção de endotoxina utilizando adsorção em leito expandido

The growing interest and applications of biotechnology products have increased the development of new processes for recovery and purification of proteins. The expanded bed adsorption (EBA) has emerged as a promising technique for this purpose. It combines into one operation the steps of clarification, concentration and purification of the target molecule. Hence, the method reduces the time and the cost of operation. In this context, this thesis aim was to evaluate the recovery and purification of 503 antigen of Leishmania i. chagasi expressed in E. coli M15 and endotoxin removal by EBA. In the first step of this study, batch experiments were carried out using two experimental designs to define the optimal adsorption and elution conditions of 503 antigen onto Streamline chelating resin. For adsorption assays, using expanded bed, it was used a column of 2.6 cm in diameter by 30.0 cm in height coupled to a peristaltic pump. In the second step of study, the removal of endotoxin during antigen recovery process was evaluated employing the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-114 in the washing step ALE. In the third step, we sought developing a mathematical model able to predict the 503 antigen breakthrough curves in expanded mode. The experimental design results to adsorption showed the pH 8.0 and the NaCl concentration of 2.4 M as the optimum adsorption condition. In the second design, the only significant factor for elution was the concentration of imidazole, which was taken at 600 mM. The adsorption isotherm of the 503 antigen showed a good fit to the Langmuir model (R = 0.98) and values for qmax (maximum adsorption capacity) and Kd (equilibrium constant) estimated were 1.95 mg/g and 0.34 mg/mL, respectively. Purification tests directly from unclarified feedstock showed a recovery of 59.2% of the target protein and a purification factor of 6.0. The addition of the non-ionic surfactant Triton X-114 to the washing step of EBA led to high levels (> 99%) of LPS removal initially present in the samples for all conditions tested. The mathematical model obtained to describe the 503 antigen breakthrough curves in Streamline Chelanting resin in expanded mode showed a good fit for both parameter estimation and validation steps. The validated model was used to optimize the efficiencies, achieving maximum values of the process and of the column efficiencies of 89.2% and 75.9%, respectively. Therefore, EBA is an efficient alternative for the recovery of the target protein and removal of endotoxin from an E. coli unclarified feedstock in just one step.

Um controlador dual subótimo com fator de peso variável no tempo

This work concerns a refinement of a suboptimal dual controller for discrete time systems with stochastic parameters. The dual property means that the control signal is chosen so that estimation of the model parameters and regulation of the output signals are optimally balanced. The control signal is computed in such a way so as to minimize the variance of output around a reference value one step further, with the addition of terms in the loss function. The idea is add simple terms depending on the covariance matrix of the parameter estimates two steps ahead. An algorithm is used for the adaptive adjustment of the adjustable parameter lambda, for each step of the way. The actual performance of the proposed controller is evaluated through a Monte Carlo simulations method.

Obtenção e caracterização de sistemas particulados de quitosana para liberação gástrica de amoxicilina

The infection caused by Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) is associated with gastroduodenal inflammation can lead to the development of gastritis, gastric or duodenal ulcer and gastric cancer (type 1 carcinogen for stomach cancer). Amoxicillin is used as first-line therapy in the treatment of H. pylori associated to metronidazole or clarithromycin, and a proton pump inhibitor. However, the scheme is not fully effective due to inadequate accumulation of antibiotics in gastric tissue, inadequate efficacy of ecological niche of H. pylori, and other factors. In this context, this study aimed to obtaining and characterization of particulate systems gastrorretentivos chitosan - amoxicillin aiming its use for treatment of H. pylori infections. The particles were obtained by the coacervation method / precipitation using sodium sulfate as precipitating agent and crosslinking and two techniques: addition of amoxicillin during preparation in a single step and the sorption particles prior to amoxycillin prepared by coacervation / precipitation and spray drying. The physicochemical characterization of the particles was performed by SEM, FTIR, DSC, TG and XRD. The in vitro release profile of amoxycillin free and incorporated in the particles was obtained in 0.1 N HCl (pH = 1.2). The particles have higher encapsulation efficiency to 80% spherical shape with interconnected particles or adhered to each other, the nanometric diameter to the systems obtained by coacervation / precipitation and fine for the particles obtained by spray drying. The characterization by FTIR, DSC and XRD showed that the drug was incorporated into the nanoparticles dispersed in the polymeric matrix. Thermal analysis (TG and DSC) indicated that encapsulation provides greater heat stability to the drug. Amoxicillin encapsulated in nanoparticles had slower release compared to free drug. The particles showed release profile with a faster initial stage (burst effect) reaching a maximum at 30 minutes 35% of amoxicillin for the system in 1: 1 ratio relative to the polymer and 80% for the system in the ratio 2: 1. Although simple and provide high encapsulation efficiency of amoxicillin, the process of coacervation, precipitation in one step using sodium sulfate as precipitant / cross-linker must be optimized in order to adjust the release kinetics according to the intended application.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread