Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Gestão de organizações sem fins lucrativos: uma avaliação de desempenho através do balanced scorecard

The methodology Balanced Scorecard (BSC) focuses on the major critical issues of modern organizations, whether with or without profit. The measurement of the effective performance of the latter is by evaluating the successful implementation of organizational strategy. The aim of this paper is to present the development of a system of performance measurement strategy for a nonprofit organization, whose object of study is the Associação de Apoio as Comunidades do Campo - AACC, in the context of the BSC methodology of Kaplan and Norton. The methodology of this case study is an exploratory, descriptive and qualitative, and diagnose the coherence of the Strategy Map in an organization, based strategic planning from 2010 to 2012. Initially conducted a literature review covering the main aspects of strategy maps and performance evaluation involving the translation of the BSC and strategy evaluation. The main results of the proposed approach refers to evaluation of overall scores for each dimension of the BSC methodology, financial, customer, internal processes, learning and growth. These results are able to help the organization evaluate and revise their strategy and, in general, to adopt management methods more accurately. Data collection is centered on interviews with semi-structured questionnaire. The findings highlight on balancing and alignment of strategic objectives, low causality map, strategic communication insufficient and fragmented. For interviewees organizational culture is the biggest impediment to structuring a management model based on indicators and strategic process should be initiated by non-financial indicators gradually. The performance indicators of the AACC/RN portray more meritocracy operational procedures of social projects in the context of the Strategic Map determined in a shortterm over the long term. However, there is evidence of improved performance management and strategic taken as a basis of planning as both the strategic map structured. Therefore, the nonprofits need to adopt a form of management that enables planning, setting objectives and targets that provide the continuity of its activities, and generating instruments that can measure the financial performance and non-financial, in order to develop strategic actions for growth and sustainability

Visual IMML: um perfil UML para a modelagem de interfaces de usuário

The software development processes proposed by the most recent approaches in Software Engineering make use old models. UML was proposed as the standard language for modeling. The user interface is an important part of the software and has a fundamental importance to improve its usability. Unfortunately the standard UML does not offer appropriate resources to model user interfaces. Some proposals have already been proposed to solve this problem: some authors have been using models in the development of interfaces (Model Based Development) and some proposals to extend UML have been elaborated. But none of them considers the theoretical perspective presented by the semiotic engineering, that considers that, through the system, the designer should be able to communicate to the user what he can do, and how to use the system itself. This work presents Visual IMML, an UML Profile that emphasizes the aspects of the semiotic engineering. This Profile is based on IMML, that is a declarative textual language. The Visual IMML is a proposal that aims to improve the specification process by using a visual modeling (using diagrams) language. It proposes a new set of modeling elements (stereotypes) specifically designed to the specification and documentation of user interfaces, considering the aspects of communication, interaction and functionality in an integrated manner

Criação de empresas à luz do modelo de decisão effectuation: um estudo com mulheres empreendedoras no município de Currais Novos/RN

This study analysed the creation of businesses by entrepreneur women in the Currais Novos city, looking for verifying if they used making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies. To this, was accomplished a multiple cases and exploratory study, whit a qualitative approach of analyse, using the thematic life history technique that match accounts and semi-structured interview route, being accomplished like a long interview, where the researcher interact with the informer continuously. The semi-structured interview route was created by the adaptation of the interview route used by Tasic (2007). The present study appealed to a intentional selection of individuals in function of their importance in relation to the boarded theme. This means that the individuals were chosen in function of their social and theoretical representatively inside the considered situation. The participant individuals of this research were five entrepreneur women that act in the Currais Novos city, owners of five different companies. To the data treatment and analyse, was chosen the content analyse technique. This study worked with a priori theoretical categories. The categories of analyse in this study was obtained with base in the Effectuation approach (SARASVATHY, 2001a, 2001b, 2008), that is an alternative model of making decision to the classic model based in the causality principle. These categories are Clarity of Initial Aims , Tolerance to the Lost and Initials Investments , Control of Resources ( who I am , what I know and who I know ) and Promoting Over Contingencies . As result, the entrepreneur women researched, in a general way, hadn t clear initial aims at the companies creation moment, hadn t aversion to the risk to lose the time and the money that they were investing in the company in formation, they highlighted the products and services identity that offered with a strong link with Seridó region, they had experience in the field of activity in which they decided to open their companies, had the commitment of partners in the beginning of the business and they knew to transform the initial difficulties in opportunities. By the end, this study conclude that the entrepreneur women studied used, in a big part, making decision processes aligned to the Effectuation logic throughout the creation of their companies

Promoção da alimentação saudável na atenção primária à saúde: contribuição para construção coletiva do saber-fazer

The recognition of the food as determinant and health-disease process etching requires new explanations and interventions of the food and nutrition policy action and demand health care model based on the completeness of the actions and focused on health promotion. This study, characterized as research-action of interventionist character, sought to develop strategies to support the transverse insertion of healthy eating promotion in professionals practices a core of support for the health of the family and a family health strategy Unit in the city of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, from the analysis of perceptions and work processes of these teams. Several methodological strategies were adopted: Dialectical Hermeneutical Circle, direct observation, reflective and Thematic Meetings Workshop "Rethinking the educational practices for promoting healthy eating". For data logging, search diaries - SD were used and moments. The analysis of procedural form occurred in conjunction with research participants, in constant movement of reflection-action-reflection, based on hermeneutics-dialectic. About the results, in relation to the promotion of health, showed the following insights: health promotion and disease prevention-related harms; health promotion related to quality of life and well-being, in its various dimensions; health promotion as a responsibility of the State; health promotion related to the actions of health education; health promotion as an expression of efficaciousness and accessibility to health services. Regarding healthy nutrition, predominated the perceptions relating to nutritional aspects. With regard to food and nutritional education - FNE, it was observed a predominance of perception of FNE as information, guidance and knowledge transfer for changes of dietary practices. As regards the working process, it was observed that among the actions for health promotion, educational activities predominate, such as lectures, conversations, groups that mostly occur in fragmentary form, without joint planning teams, varying according to the professionals and the moment of work in which they are carried out. The results pointed to the need for reorganization of the work processes, in the context of intra-and intersectoral coordination and the construction of new technologies, such as: Health project of the territory – HPT, Unique Therapeutic Project- UPT, Expanded Clinic and educational practices, Shared with active teaching and learning methodologies. From the results we believe that it is necessary to "thought reform", from changes in vocational training and strengthening of the permanent education spaces, whereas the complexity that involves feeding, food and nutrition education and health promotion. The reformation of thought must be articulate and closely tied to the production of knowledge and practices that encourage intersectoral approach, the transversality, dialogue and democratic and supportive attitude, based on the collective construction of know-how. We hope that this study can contribute with reflections and initiatives that encourage building practices that promote healthy eating in primary health care, in terms of completeness of the care and the attainment of food security and nutrition.