análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Efetividade da doxiciclina na profilaxia contra letptospirose

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis of considerable medical and economical importance that affects humans in both urban and rural contexts, as well as domestic animals and wild fauna. Leptospira interrogans is the causative agent and is transmitted to humans by indirect contact with contaminated soil or water. The clinical syndromes include sub clinical infection, self-limited anicteric febrile illness, and severe and potentially fatal illness, known as Weil´s syndrome. In developed countries, leptospirosis is related to occupational or recreational activities while in developing countries, outbreaks occur during floods. In those regions, traditional strategies to prevent the transmission are difficulties to be implemented because of costs and lack of community acceptance. In addition, no efficient vaccine is available for human use. Several studies have suggested that chemoprophylaxis with doxycycline pre and post-exposure may be effective to prevent leptospirosis. Leptospirosis has been reported in rural areas of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil since 1985 in rice farmers who present the anicteric illness. The disease cause great social and economics impact. The study was conducted in São Miguel where an epidemic of leptospirosis in rice farmers was reported. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of doxycycline in preventing Leptospira exposure. A taxa de soroprevalência de leptospirose na população estudada antes e após a colheita foi de 14,2% (n=22) e de 16.6% (n=27) respectivamente. Anti-Leptospira serology was determined for 61 subjects in two instances, pre and post-exposure to potential contaminated water. There was an increased risk of 29.0 per cent in acquiring infection for individuals that did not use doxycycline. In addition, an increased risk of 30.0 % observed in farmers who did not use protection when exposed to Leptospira. The adhesion to preventive chemoprophylaxis was 55.7%. Therefore doxycycline, under specific circunstances appears to be an effective alternative to protect against leptosprirosis infection. A large sample composed of individuals to adhere to preventive therapy is needed to define time, dosage and length of use of doxycycline in this area

Lítio e parâmetros orbitais em sistemas binários com componentes evoluídas

One of the best established properties of the single late type evolved stars is that their rotational velocity and lithium content decrease with effective temperature and age. Nevertheless, the root cause of this property, as well as the link between rotation and lithium abundance and, in particular, the effects of binarity on rotation and lithium content in binary systems with evolved component, are not yet completely established. How does the gravitational tides, in binary systems, affects rotational evolution and lithium dilution? Trying to answer these questions, we have carried out an observational survey, in the lithium region centered at the lithium I line A6707.81A, for a large sample of about 100 binary systems with evolved component along the spectral range F, G and K, with the CES spectrometer mounted at the CAT 1.44 m Telescope of the ESO, La Silla, Chile. By combining the abundances of lithium issued from these observations with rotational velocity and orbital parameters, we have found a number of important results. First of all, we confirm that in this class of binary systems rotation is effectively affected by tidal effects. Binary systems with orbital period lower than about 100 days and circular or nearly circular orbits, present rotational velocity enhanced in relation to the single giant stars and to the binary systems with an orbital period larger than 100 days. This is clearly the result of the synchonization between the rotational and orbital motions due to tidal effects. In addition, we have found that lithium abundances in binary systems with giant components present the same gradual decreasing with effective temperature, observed in the single giants of same luminosity class and spectral types. We have found no lithium-rich binary systems, in contrast with single giants. A remarkable result from the present study is the one showing that synchronized binary systems with giant component retains more of their original lithium than the unsynchronized systems. In fact, we have found a possible "inhibited zone", in which synchronized binary systems with giant component having lithium abundance lower than a threshold level should be unusual. Finally, the present study also shows that the binary systems with giant component presenting the highest lithium contents are those with the highest rotation rates

Testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com Fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modeling of time to event data. However in some situations part of the population may be no longer subject to the event. Models that take this fact into account are called cure rate models. There are few studies about hypothesis tests in cure rate models. Recently a new test statistic, the gradient statistic, has been proposed. It shares the same asymptotic properties with the classic large sample tests, the likelihood ratio, score and Wald tests. Some simulation studies have been carried out to explore the behavior of the gradient statistic in fi nite samples and compare it with the classic statistics in diff erent models. The main objective of this work is to study and compare the performance of gradient test and likelihood ratio test in cure rate models. We first describe the models and present the main asymptotic properties of the tests. We perform a simulation study based on the promotion time model with Weibull distribution to assess the performance of the tests in finite samples. An application is presented to illustrate the studied concepts

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Efetividade da doxiciclina na profilaxia contra letptospirose

Leptospirosis is a worldwide zoonosis of considerable medical and economical importance that affects humans in both urban and rural contexts, as well as domestic animals and wild fauna. Leptospira interrogans is the causative agent and is transmitted to humans by indirect contact with contaminated soil or water. The clinical syndromes include sub clinical infection, self-limited anicteric febrile illness, and severe and potentially fatal illness, known as Weil´s syndrome. In developed countries, leptospirosis is related to occupational or recreational activities while in developing countries, outbreaks occur during floods. In those regions, traditional strategies to prevent the transmission are difficulties to be implemented because of costs and lack of community acceptance. In addition, no efficient vaccine is available for human use. Several studies have suggested that chemoprophylaxis with doxycycline pre and post-exposure may be effective to prevent leptospirosis. Leptospirosis has been reported in rural areas of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil since 1985 in rice farmers who present the anicteric illness. The disease cause great social and economics impact. The study was conducted in São Miguel where an epidemic of leptospirosis in rice farmers was reported. The main objective was to determine the efficacy of doxycycline in preventing Leptospira exposure. A taxa de soroprevalência de leptospirose na população estudada antes e após a colheita foi de 14,2% (n=22) e de 16.6% (n=27) respectivamente. Anti-Leptospira serology was determined for 61 subjects in two instances, pre and post-exposure to potential contaminated water. There was an increased risk of 29.0 per cent in acquiring infection for individuals that did not use doxycycline. In addition, an increased risk of 30.0 % observed in farmers who did not use protection when exposed to Leptospira. The adhesion to preventive chemoprophylaxis was 55.7%. Therefore doxycycline, under specific circunstances appears to be an effective alternative to protect against leptosprirosis infection. A large sample composed of individuals to adhere to preventive therapy is needed to define time, dosage and length of use of doxycycline in this area

Rotação e processos de acreção e coalescência em sistemas planetários e sistemas binários

The discovery of giant stars in the spectral regions G and K, showing moderate to rapid rotation and single behavior, namely with constant radial velocity, represents one important topic of study in Stellar Astrophysics. Indeed, such anomalous rotation clearly violates the theoretical predictions on the evolution of stellar rotation, since in evolved evolutionary stages is expected that the single stars essentially have low rotation due to the evolutionary expansion. This property is well-established from the observational point of view, with different studies showing that for single giant stars of spectral types G and K values of the rotation are typically smaller than 5kms−1 . This Thesis seeks an effective contribution to solving the paradigm described above, aiming to search for single stars of spectral types G and K with anomalous rotation, tipically rotation of moderate to rapid, in other luminosity classes. In this context, we analyzed a large stellar sample consisting of 2010 apparently single stars of luminosity classes IV, III, II and Ib with spectral types G and K, with rotational velocity v sin i and radial velocity measurements obtained from observations made by CORAVEL spectrometers. As a first result of impact we discovered the presence of anomalous rotators also among subgiants, bright giants and supergiants stars, namelly stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib, in contrast to previous studies, that reported anomalous rotators only in the luminosity class III classic giants. Such a finding of great significance because it allows us to analyze the presence of anomalous rotation at different intervals of mass, since the luminosity classes considered here cover a mass range between 0.80 and 20MJ, approximately. In the present survey we discovered 1 subgiant, 9 giants, 2 bright giants and 5 Ib supergiants, in spectral regions G and K, with values of v sin i ≥ 10kms−1 and single behavior. This amount of 17 stars corresponds to a frequency of 0.8% of G and K single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in the mentioned classes of luminosities, listed at the Bright Star Catalog, which is complete to visual magnitude 6.3. Given these new findings, based on a stellar sample complete in visual magnitude, as that of the Bright Star Catalog, we conducted a comparative statistical analysis using the Kolmogorov- Smirnov test, from where we conclude that the distributions of rotational velocity, v sin i, for single evolved stars with anomalous rotation in luminosity classes III and II, are similar to the distributions of v sin i for spectroscopic binary systems with evolved components with the same spectral type and luminosity class. This vii result indicates that the process of coalescence between stars of a binary system might be a possible mechanism to explain the observed abnormal rotation in the referred abnormal rotators, at least among the giants and bright giants, where the rotation in excess would be associated with the transfer of angular momentum for the star resulting from the merger. Another important result of this Thesis concerns the behavior of the infrared emission in most of the stars with anomalous rotation here studied, where 14 stars of the sample tend to have an excess in IR compared with single stars with low rotation, within of their luminosity class. This property represents an additional link in the search for the physical mechanisms responsible for the abnormal observed rotation, since recent theoretical studies show that the accretion of objects of sub-stellar mass, such as brown dwarfs and giant planets, by the hosting star, can significantly raise its rotation, producing also a circumstellar dust disk. This last result seems to point in that direction, since it is not expected that dust disks occurring during the stage of star formation can survive until the stages of subgiants, giants and supergiants Ib. In summary, in this Thesis, besides the discovery of single G and K evolved stars of luminosity classes IV, II and Ib with anomalously high rotation compared to what is predicted by stellar evolution theory, we also present the frequency of these abnormal rotators in a stellar sample complete to visual magnitude 6.3. We also present solid evidence that coalescence processes in stellar binary systems and processes of accretion of brown dwarfs star or giant planets, by the hosting stars, can act as mechanisms responsible for the puzzling phenomenon of anomalous rotation in single evolved stars.