Transição demográfica e a questão educacional: uma abordagem para o ensino médio do Rio Grande do Norte

Due to demographic transition process, the educational public sector politics formers encounter a highly specific demographic situation because, nowadays, despite the demographic transition, population is still growing because of the demographic inertia; however, due to steady decline in fertility, young population tends to decrease in next years. In this way, aiming to make high school widely accessible in the country, the issue of education quality is highlighted as well the importance of the physical structure of schools and their teaching equipments to confirm a favorable or not environment for developing educational processes. In this way, this work aims to relate the enrollment of students as school types with the demand of young people who will be able to attend high school on the Rio Grande do Norte state by the year of 2020, emphasizing teaching unities structural aspects, from a school profiling to the design of three prospective alternatives. So, from INEP's Scholar Census data and IBGE population's projections, this work is composed by four stages: i) literature review about research related subjects; ii) database design and build; iii) school profiling; and, iv) prospective alternatives creation. As results, three alternatives relate potential demand and enrollment using the built profiles and they are: i) “Alternative A” attends PEE's requirements related to demands but do not provide improvements in the school structural aspects; ii) “Alternative B” points into an increase of enrollment offering to the detriment of school's structural conditions which are offered to these students; iii) “Alternative C” propitiates a quantitative enrollment increasing combined with improvements on school's physical structure. These alternatives help to support decision making related to goals and realization of universal access with physical conditions which are necessary to a favorable environment to educational activity development.