Velocidade da marcha como preditor de fragilidade em uma amostra populacional de idosos brasileiros

Gait speed has been described as a predictive indicator of important adverse outcomes in older populations. Among the criteria to evaluate frailty, gait speed has been identified as the most reliable predictor of fragility, practical and low cost. Objective: This study assesses the discriminating capability of gait speed in determining the presence of fragility in the elderly community in northeast of Brazil. Method: We performed an observational analytic study with a transversal character with a sample of 391 community-living elders, aged 65 years or older, of both sexes, in the city of Santa Cruz-RN. Participants were interviewed using a multidimensional questionnaire to obtain sociodemographic information, physical-related and mental health-related information. The unintentional weight loss, muscle weakness, self-reported exhaustion, slow gait and low-physical activity were considered to evaluate the frailty syndrome. Gait velocity was measured as the time taken to walk the middle 4,6 meters of 8,6 meters (excluding 2 meters to warm-up phase and 2 meters to deceleration phase).We calculate the sensitivity and specificity of gait speed test in different cutoff points for the test run time, from which ROC curve was constructed as a measure of test predictive value to identify frail elders. The prevalence of frailty in Santa Cruz-RN was 17.1%. The gait speed test accuracy was 71%when speed is below 0,91m/s. Among women, the gait speed test accuracy was 80%(gait speed below 0.77m/s) and among men, the test accuracy was 86% (gait spend below 0,82%) (p<0,0001).Conclusion: our findings have clinical relevance when we consider that the detection of frailty presence by the gait speed test can be observed in elderly men and women by a simple, cheap and efficient exam

Modelo de tempo de falha acelerado com fração de cura : uma abordagem unificada

In this work we study the accelerated failure-time generalized Gamma regression models with a unified approach. The models attempt to estimate simultaneously the effects of covariates on the acceleration/deceleration of the timing of a given event and the surviving fraction. The method is implemented in the free statistical software R. Finally the model is applied to a real dataset referring to the time until the return of the disease in patients diagnosed with breast cancer

Desindustrialização no Brasil: teorias e evidências para o debate

This study aims to contribute with evidence to reinforce or not the thesis of a possible deindustrialization of the Brazilian economy, with emphasis on period after 1995. The debate began in the late 80s, however, recently the industry deceleration gained strength in discussions academic. Between the main theses in this debate is the new-development that believes in precocious deindustrialization caused primarily by overvaluation exchange rate. However, part of heterodoxy believes the industry downturn is more related to the rate of investment than the exchange rate. Nevertheless, according to the orthodox thesis the loss of competitiveness due to the high cost of production may have caused the de-industrialization in Brazil. On the other hand, part of Orthodoxy does not believe that the country is deindustrializing it, but is occurring convergence of Brazilian industry the world average. Thus, in an attempt to shed light on this debate, this study intends to identify the reasons for the deceleration of the Brazilian industry, emphasizing aspects underexplored in the literature and define whether or not the country suffers a process of deindustrialization. When analyzing various indicators, especially the quantum level we find strong indications that the deceleration of the Brazilian industry can be characterized as a deindustrialization, though still insufficient to qualify as precocious, given the loss of share in physical production in total output and the share of primary goods in the export basket