Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

A experiência de depressão na contemporaneidade: uma compreensão fenomenológico-existencial

The depression is one of the most common forms of getting ill nowaday. Due to the increase in incidence of depression cases registered worldwide, this theme has been the subject of important studies, especially regarding the symptomatological description and biological etiology of the disease. This research had the objective to understand the unique experience of depression experienced by people who recognize themselves in depression, under the focus of existential phenomenology of Martin Heidegger. To reach the proposed objective, individuals narratives interviews were conducted with four participants, starting from the triggering question, "from your experience, how is for you to being depressed?". The survey revealed that depression affects the whole person and is related to stressful life contexts. Depression was narrated as an experience of disempowerment and lack of self esteem and personal worth. The collaborators of the research referred to the depression from sad, angry, bored and pessimistic mood. The time is experienced as a restriction to the projective opening towards the possibilities of being in which the future is seen as catastrophic and the past lived as debt and guilt. The corporeality, in depression is experienced through the weight, fatigue and pains for no reason. The space is lived from the notion of fall and collapse. We also realized the desire for isolation and avoidance of social contact. Suicide is desired and represents the end of the suffering in life. The depression has proved, still, very stigmatized, because it is discredited and misunderstood. The stigma also addressed to the experience of hospitalization and the unsuitability to the socially imposed standards of beauty, which generates enough suffering to the depressed person. The medication was described based on its positive effects, as a balance and suffering reducer, but also as a producer of dependence. Were also identified according to the collaborators, traces of selfdemand, ordenality and being-for-others, characteristic of typus melancholicus. This study contributes to an understanding of the depression that goes beyond the merely biological perspective and symptomatology of the pathology. The investigation of the depressive experience, through the lens of Heidegger's phenomenology, showed us the phenomenon of the depression in their singularity, complexity and multiple meanings, showing the close relationship between the formation of the depression and the context of personal and social life of the participants

Detecção de metamidofós em solos por métodos ecotoxicológico e cromatografia líquida acoplada à espectrometria de massas sequencial (LC-MS/MS)

Soil contamination by pesticides is an environmental problem that needs to be monitored and avoided. However, the lack of fast, accurate and low cost analytical methods for discovering residual pesticide in complex matrices, such as soil, is a problem still unresolved. This problem needs to be solved before we are able to assess the quality of environmental samples. The intensive use of pesticides has increased since the 60s, because the dependence of their use, causing biological imbalances and promoting resistance and recurrence of high populations of pests and pathogens (upwelling). This has contributed to the appearance of new pests that were previously under natural control. To develop analytical methods that are able to quantify residues pesticide in complex environment. It is still a challenge for many laboratories. The integration of two analytical methods one ecotoxicological and another chemical demonstrates the potential for environmental analysis of methamidophos. The aim of this study was to evaluate an ecotoxicological method as "screening" analytical methamidophos in the soil and perform analytical confirmation in the samples of the concentration of the analyte by chemical method LC-MS/MS In this work we tested two soils: a clayey and sandy, both in contact with the kinetic methamidophos model followed pseudo-second order. The clay soil showed higher absorption of methamidophos and followed the Freundlich model, while the sandy, the Langmuir model. The chemical method was validated LC-MS/MS satisfactory, showing all parameters of linearity, range, precision, accuracy, and sensitivity adequate. In chronic ecotoxicological tests with C. dubia, the NOEC was 4.93 and 3.24 for ng L-1 of methamidophos to elutriate assays of sandy and clay soils, respectively. The method for ecotoxicological levels was more sensitive than LC-MS/MS detection of methamidophos, loamy and sandy soils. However, decreasing the concentration of the standard for analytical methamidophos and adjusting for the validation conditions chemical acquires a limit of quantification (LOQ) in ng L-1, consistent with the provisions of ecotoxicological test. The methods described should be used as an analytical tool for methamidophos in soil, and the ecotoxicological analysis can be used as a "screening" and LC-MS/MS as confirmatory analysis of the analyte molecule, confirming the objectives of this work

Universaidade em sistemas da mecâniaestatística de não equilíbrio com estados absorventes e percolação geográfica

Complex systems have stimulated much interest in the scientific community in the last twenty years. Examples this area are the Domany-Kinzel cellular automaton and Contact Process that are studied in the first chapter this tesis. We determine the critical behavior of these systems using the spontaneous-search method and short-time dynamics (STD). Ours results confirm that the DKCA e CP belong to universality class of Directed Percolation. In the second chapter, we study the particle difusion in two models of stochastic sandpiles. We characterize the difusion through diffusion constant D, definite through in the relation h(x)2i = 2Dt. The results of our simulations, using finite size scalling and STD, show that the diffusion constant can be used to study critical properties. Both models belong to universality class of Conserved Directed Percolation. We also study that the mean-square particle displacement in time, and characterize its dependence on the initial configuration and particle density. In the third chapter, we introduce a computacional model, called Geographic Percolation, to study watersheds, fractals with aplications in various areas of science. In this model, sites of a network are assigned values between 0 and 1 following a given probability distribution, we order this values, keeping always its localization, and search pk site that percolate network. Once we find this site, we remove it from the network, and search for the next that has the network to percole newly. We repeat these steps until the complete occupation of the network. We study the model in 2 and 3 dimension, and compare the bidimensional case with networks form at start real data (Alps e Himalayas)