Influência de eventos hidrológicos extremos na qualidade da água de reservatórios na região tropical semiárida

Reservoirs are artificial ecosystems, intermediate between rivers and lakes, with diferent morphological and hydrological characteristics that can provide many important benefits to society. However, the use of this water for human consumption, watering livestock, leisure, irrigated agricultural production and pisciculture development, directly influence the increase loading of nutrients to aquatic environments and contribute to acceleration of eutrophication. Furthermore, global climate models are predicting a higher occurrence of extreme events such as floods and severe droughts, which will create hydrological stresses in lakes. In the semiarid northeast we can see the occurrence of these events, the drought of the years 2012, 2013 and 2014 was the worst drought in 60 years, according to the National Water Agency (ANA). Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the quality of the semiarid tropical water sources, identifying temporal patterns in periods with extreme hydrological events (floods and severe droughts). The study results showed that Gargalheiras and Cruzeta reservoirs presented significative changes in the limnological variables between rain and severe drought periods, with better appearance and in the most of the water quality variables in the rainy season and higher nutrientes concentrations and high electrical conductivity values in severe season, indicating decay of its quality. However, we found diferent behaviors between the reservoirs in severe drought. While Gargalheiras showed a typical behavior of the region, with high concentrations of algal biomass, indicating the worsening eutrophication, Cruzeta demonstrated a colapse in the total phytoplankton biomass, evidenced by the decrease in chla concentrations. This fact occurred because the low depth and proximity with the sediment facilited the inorganic solids resuspension and, consequently, resulted in turbid water column and light by limitation. In addition, the different behaviors between the reservoirs indicate that the responses of these environments problems such as extreme events must take into account factors such the region climate, size, depth of the reservoir and the basin characteristics.

Estudo do balanço de umidade por meio de modelos regionais para o clima do passado e do futuro sobre a América do Sul

In the context of climate change over South America (SA) has been observed that the combination of high temperatures and rain more temperatures less rainfall, cause different impacts such as extreme precipitation events, favorable conditions for fires and droughts. As a result, these regions face growing threat of water shortage, local or generalized. Thus, the water availability in Brazil depends largely on the weather and its variations in different time scales. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to study the moisture budget through regional climate models (RCM) from Project Regional Climate Change Assessments for La Plata Basin (CLARIS-LPB) and combine these RCM through two statistical techniques in an attempt to improve prediction on three areas of AS: Amazon (AMZ), Northeast Brazil (NEB) and the Plata Basin (LPB) in past climates (1961-1990) and future (2071-2100). The moisture transport on AS was investigated through the moisture fluxes vertically integrated. The main results showed that the average fluxes of water vapor in the tropics (AMZ and NEB) are higher across the eastern and northern edges, thus indicating that the contributions of the trade winds of the North Atlantic and South are equally important for the entry moisture during the months of JJA and DJF. This configuration was observed in all the models and climates. In comparison climates, it was found that the convergence of the flow of moisture in the past weather was smaller in the future in various regions and seasons. Similarly, the majority of the SPC simulates the future climate, reduced precipitation in tropical regions (AMZ and NEB), and an increase in the LPB region. The second phase of this research was to carry out combination of RCM in more accurately predict precipitation, through the multiple regression techniques for components Main (C.RPC) and convex combination (C.EQM), and then analyze and compare combinations of RCM (ensemble). The results indicated that the combination was better in RPC represent precipitation observed in both climates. Since, in addition to showing values be close to those observed, the technique obtained coefficient of correlation of moderate to strong magnitude in almost every month in different climates and regions, also lower dispersion of data (RMSE). A significant advantage of the combination of methods was the ability to capture extreme events (outliers) for the study regions. In general, it was observed that the wet C.EQM captures more extreme, while C.RPC can capture more extreme dry climates and in the three regions studied.