Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Simulação de reservatórios de petróleo em ambiente MPSoC

The constant increase of complexity in computer applications demands the development of more powerful hardware support for them. With processor's operational frequency reaching its limit, the most viable solution is the use of parallelism. Based on parallelism techniques and the progressive growth in the capacity of transistors integration in a single chip is the concept of MPSoCs (Multi-Processor System-on-Chip). MPSoCs will eventually become a cheaper and faster alternative to supercomputers and clusters, and applications developed for these high performance systems will migrate to computers equipped with MP-SoCs containing dozens to hundreds of computation cores. In particular, applications in the area of oil and natural gas exploration are also characterized by the high processing capacity required and would benefit greatly from these high performance systems. This work intends to evaluate a traditional and complex application of the oil and gas industry known as reservoir simulation, developing a solution with integrated computational systems in a single chip, with hundreds of functional unities. For this, as the STORM (MPSoC Directory-Based Platform) platform already has a shared memory model, a new distributed memory model were developed. Also a message passing library has been developed folowing MPI standard

Cloud query manager: uso de web semântica para evitar o problema de aprisionamento em IaaS

Cloud computing can be defined as a distributed computational model by through resources (hardware, storage, development platforms and communication) are shared, as paid services accessible with minimal management effort and interaction. A great benefit of this model is to enable the use of various providers (e.g a multi-cloud architecture) to compose a set of services in order to obtain an optimal configuration for performance and cost. However, the multi-cloud use is precluded by the problem of cloud lock-in. The cloud lock-in is the dependency between an application and a cloud platform. It is commonly addressed by three strategies: (i) use of intermediate layer that stands to consumers of cloud services and the provider, (ii) use of standardized interfaces to access the cloud, or (iii) use of models with open specifications. This paper outlines an approach to evaluate these strategies. This approach was performed and it was found that despite the advances made by these strategies, none of them actually solves the problem of lock-in cloud. In this sense, this work proposes the use of Semantic Web to avoid cloud lock-in, where RDF models are used to specify the features of a cloud, which are managed by SPARQL queries. In this direction, this work: (i) presents an evaluation model that quantifies the problem of cloud lock-in, (ii) evaluates the cloud lock-in from three multi-cloud solutions and three cloud platforms, (iii) proposes using RDF and SPARQL on management of cloud resources, (iv) presents the cloud Query Manager (CQM), an SPARQL server that implements the proposal, and (v) comparing three multi-cloud solutions in relation to CQM on the response time and the effectiveness in the resolution of cloud lock-in.