7 resultados para VaR (Valor-em-Risco) paramétrico

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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This research aimed to analyse the effect of different territorial divisions in the random fluctuation of socio-economic indicators related to social determinants of health. This is an ecological study resulting from a combination of statistical methods including individuated and aggregate data analysis, using five databases derived from the database of the Brazilian demographic census 2010: overall results of the sample by weighting area. These data were grouped into the following levels: households; weighting areas; cities; Immediate Urban Associated Regions and Intermediate Urban Associated Regions. A theoretical model related to social determinants of health was used, with the dependent variable Household with death and as independent variables: Black race; Income; Childcare and school no attendance; Illiteracy; and Low schooling. The data was analysed in a model related to social determinants of health, using Poisson regression in individual basis, multilevel Poisson regression and multiple linear regression in light of the theoretical framework of the area. It was identified a greater proportion of households with deaths among those with at least one black resident, lower-income, illiterate, who do not attend or attended school or day-care and less educated. The analysis of the adjusted model showed that most adjusted prevalence ratio was related to Income, where there is a risk value of 1.33 for households with at least one resident with lower average personal income to R$ 655,00 (Brazilian current). The multilevel analysis demonstrated that there was a context effect when the variables were subjected to the effects of areas, insofar as the random effects were significant for all models and with different prevalence rates being higher in the areas with smaller dimensions - Weighting areas with coefficient of 0.035 and Cities with coefficient of 0.024. The ecological analyses have shown that the variable Income and Low schooling presented explanatory potential for the outcome on all models, having income greater power to determine the household deaths, especially in models related to Immediate Urban Associated Regions with a standardized coefficient of -0.616 and regions intermediate urban associated regions with a standardized coefficient of -0.618. It was concluded that there was a context effect on the random fluctuation of the socioeconomic indicators related to social determinants of health. This effect was explained by the characteristics of territorial divisions and individuals who live or work there. Context effects were better identified in the areas with smaller dimensions, which are more favourable to explain phenomena related to social determinants of health, especially in studies of societies marked by social inequalities. The composition effects were better identified in the Regions of Urban Articulation, shaped through mechanisms similar to the phenomenon under study.

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The metabolic syndrome (MetS) involves a group of risk factors and is associated with a significantly higher risk of developing cardiovascular diseases (CVD) and type 2 diabetes. Recent studies have shown the importance of preventing CVD through early diagnosis and treatment of patients with MetS. The objective of our study was to determine the prevalence of MetS by different diagnostic criteria in postmenopausal women and analyze the influence of socioeconomic factors on cardiovascular risk in this sample of the population. A cross-sectional study involving 127 postmenopausal women (45 to 64 years) from Natal and Mossoró, Brazil. The study was approved by the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte. The experimental protocol consisted of applying structured interview, clinical examination and implementation of dosages blood. The diagnosis of MetS was based on NCEP-ATP III (National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III) and IDF (International Diabetes Federation) criteria. The research was accomplished with the participation of an interdisciplinary team in their several phases. The result of the sample studied had mean age of 53.9 ± 4.6 years and per capita income of 54.5 dollars. The prevalence of MetS, according to NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria, was 52.8% and 61.4$, respectively. The agreement rate between NCEP-ATP III and IDF criteria was 81.9%, with a kappa value of 0.63 (CI 95%, 0.49-0.76), indicating good agreement between the two definitions. The most prevalent cardiovascular risk factor was HDL < 50 mg/dl, observed in 96.1% of the women analyzed, followed by increased waist circumference (≥ 80 cm) in 78.0%, elevated blood pressure in 51.2%, triglycerides ≥ 150 mg/dl in 40.9% and glycemia ≥ 100 mg/dl in 37.0% of the women. The occurrence of MetS was significantly associated with schooling and body mass index (BMI). High blood pressure was significantly associated with low family income, low schooling and weight gain. There was no significant association between the intensity of climacteric symptomatology and the occurrence of MetS. The conclusions of the research were that MetS and its individual components show a high prevalence in postmenopausal Brazilian women, and significant associations with weight gain and low socioeconomic indicators. The data point to the need for an interdisciplinary approach at the basic health care level, directed toward the early identification of risk factors and the promotion of cardiovascular health of climacteric women.

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Many prey organisms change their phenotype to reduce the predation risk. However, such changes are associated with trade-offs, and can have negative effects on prey growth or reproduction. Understand how preys assess the predation risk is essential to evaluate the adaptive value of predator-induced phenotypic and its ecological consequences. In this study, we performed a mesocosm experiment to test: i) if growth and stoichiometry of Lithobates catesbeianus tadpoles is altered in response to giant water bug presence (Belostoma spp.); ii) if these responses depend on tadpoles density in environment. Here, we show that tadpoles growth and stoichiometry are not changed by predator presence, neither in low nor in high densities. Our results suggest that tadpoles exposed to predation risk regulate their physiology to preserve the elemental stoichiometric homeostase of their body and excretion. Further, point out to need for future studies that elucidate under what conditions growth and stoichiometry are changed in response to predation risk

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The pressure ulcers (PU), also known as decubitus ulcers, are defined as injuries caused by the constant pressure exerted on a particular point of the body, causing impairment of blood supply with a decrease or interruption of tissue irrigation, causing occlusion of blood vessels and capillaries, ischemia and cell death. This is a descriptive study with longitudinal design, and panel type, with quantitative approach that aimed to examine the association between predisposing conditions (PC), intrinsic factors (IF) and extrinsic factors (EF) with the occurrence of PU, in hospitalized patients in the Intensive Care Unit (ICU), pain clinical, surgical clinical and neurology wards of a university hospital. The study population was composed of all patients who were restricted to bed during the period from December 2007 to February 2008. The study was approved by the Ethics Committee of HUOL / UFRN (No 135/07). The data-collection took place through a structured formulary of observation, data from medical records and physical examination of patients skins. The results were organized in SPSS 15.0 software, tabulated, categorized and analyzed by descriptive and inferential statistics. Of the 30 patients studied, 43.3% had been hospitalized in the pain clinical and surgical clinic wards, 20.0% in the ICU, 20.0% in the ICU / ward and 16.7% in neurology, being the length of hospitalization in those units of 7 to 18 days (63.3%) and from 19 to 30 days (36.7%), predominantly female and aged ≥ 60 years (60.0%). 19 PU were diagnosed in 43.3% of patients monitored, being 38.5% with one PU between 7 to 18 days and 46.2% with two or more between 19 to 30 days of hospitalization, showing significant relationship (ρ-value = 0029) between length of hospital stay and the number of PU. Was found an association of 35.7% of the PC (cardio-respiratory, hematological, metabolic and psychogenic), IF (age group, oedema, skin changes in humidity and change of body temperature) and EF (type of mattress and strength of body pressure) for all patients studied, statistically significant (ρ-value = 0001), between the average scores in patients with and without PU, with reason chance to 12.0 for the development of PU and there was moderate correlation ( r = 0618) in the presence of this association. Results show the influence of the multiplicity of factors and conditions on the occurrence of PU, which brings us to reflect on the assistance focused on prevention and reduction of these injuries which will encourage the reduction of hospitalization length, physical and psychological suffering, and the possibility of improving the clinical condition of the patient.

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The main specie of marine shrimp raised at Brazil and in the world is Litopenaeus vannamei, which had arrived in Brazil in the `80s. However, the entry of infectious myonecrosis virus (IMNV), causing the infectious myonecrosis disease in marine shrimps, brought economic losses to the national shrimp farming, with up to 70% of mortality in the shrimp production. In this way, the objective was to evaluate the survival of shrimps Litopenaeus vannamei infected with IMNV using the non parametric estimator of Kaplan-Meier and a model of frailty for grouped data. It were conducted three tests of viral challenges lasting 20 days each, at different periods of the year, keeping the parameters of pH, temperature, oxygen and ammonia monitored daily. It was evaluated 60 full-sib families of L. vannamei infected by IMNV in each viral challenge. The confirmation of the infection by IMNV was performed using the technique of PCR in real time through Sybr Green dye. Using the Kaplan-Meier estimator it was possible to detect significant differences (p <0.0001) between the survival curves of families and tanks and also in the joint analysis between viral challenges. It were estimated in each challenge, genetic parameters such as genetic value of family, it`s respective rate risk (frailty), and heritability in the logarithmic scale through the frailty model for grouped data. The heritability estimates were respectively 0.59; 0.36; and 0.59 in the viral challenges 1; 2; and 3, and it was also possible to identify families that have lower and higher rates of risk for the disease. These results can be used for selecting families more resistant to the IMNV infection and to include characteristic of disease resistance in L. vannamei into the genetic improvement programs

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Among the traits of economic importance to dairy cattle livestock those related to sexual precocity and longevity of the herd are essential to the success of the activity, because the stayability time of a cow in a herd is determined by their productive and reproductive lives. In Brazil, there are few studies about the reproductive efficiency of Swiss-Brown cows and no study was found using the methodology of survival analysis applied to this breed. Thus, in the first chapter of this study, the age at first calving from Swiss-Brown heifers was analyzed as the time until the event by the nonparametric method of Kaplan-Meier and the gamma shared frailty model, under the survival analysis methodology. Survival and hazard rate curves associated with this event were estimated and identified the influence of covariates on such time. The mean and median times at the first calving were 987.77 and 1,003 days, respectively, and significant covariates by the Log-Rank test, through Kaplan-Meier analysis, were birth season, calving year, sire (cow s father) and calving season. In the analysis by frailty model, the breeding values and the frailties of the sires (fathers) for the calving were predicted modeling the risk function of each cow as a function of the birth season as fixed covariate and sire as random covariate. The frailty followed the gamma distribution. Sires with high and positive breeding values possess high frailties, what means shorter survival time of their daughters to the event, i.e., reduction in the age at first calving of them. The second chapter aimed to evaluate the longevity of dairy cows using the nonparametric Kaplan-Meier and the Cox and Weibull proportional hazards models. It were simulated 10,000 records of the longevity trait from Brown-Swiss cows involving their respective times until the occurrence of five consecutive calvings (event), considered here as typical of a long-lived cow. The covariates considered in the database were age at first calving, herd and sire (cow s father). All covariates had influence on the longevity of cows by Log-Rank and Wilcoxon tests. The mean and median times to the occurrence of the event were 2,436.285 and 2,437 days, respectively. Sires that have higher breeding values also have a greater risk of that their daughters reach the five consecutive calvings until 84 months

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Faults in the genes responsible for repairs to the DNA can influence the onset of cancer or affect the response to treatment. This research evaluated the frequency of three single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in two repair genes DNA RAD51 172g> T (rs1801321), RAD51 135G> C (rs1801320) and XRCC3 T241M (rs861539) in individuals without cancer (n = 130) and patients with oral squamous cell carcinoma (OSC) and carcinoma oropharyngeal squamous (ORSC) (n = 126) and investigated possible relationships of these findings with clinical and pathological data and clinical outcomes: tumor response to radiotherapy and chemotherapy, disease-free survival, and overall survival. It was found that the allele and genotype frequencies were in equilibrium Hard-Weinberg equilibrium. The presence of at least one polymorphic allele in XRCC3 (rs861539) gene is associated with histological grade (WHO) higher (p = 0.007). We observed a higher recurrence rate trend (p = 0.08) and more advanced stage (p = 0.08) in the group that had at least one polymorphic allele of RAD51 gene (rs1801321). The presence of the analyzed SNPs not proved to be a risk factor for the development of CEO or CEOR; however, when combined with smoking or drinking, increased the risk of developing cancer from three to one hundred and fifty times. The tumor response to radiotherapy and chemotherapy was similar in patients with and without SNPs. No polymorphism showed statistical significance in relation to recurrence-free survival or overall survival. We conclude that the presence of at least one polymorphic allele of the SNPs rs861539 in XRCC3 gene, rs1801320 and rs1801321 in the RAD51 gene increase the risk of development of OSC and ORSC, when associated with the habit of drinking or smoking. Polymorphisms studied in XRCC3 and RAD51 genes are not associated with response to radiation therapy, relapse-free survival or overall survival.