Análise da eficiência de contratos de serviços de elevada especificidade terceirizados pela petrobras

The definition of the boundaries of the firms is subject that has occupied the organizational theorists long ago, being the seminal work of Coase (1937) indicated as the trigger for one theoretical evolution, with emphasis on governance structures, which led to a modern theory of incomplete contracts. The Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Agency Theory arise within this evolution, being widely used in studies related to the theme. Empirically, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has established itself as a suitable tool for analysis of efficiency. Although TCE argues that specific assets must be internalized, recent studies outside the mainstream of theory show that, often, firms may decide, for various reasons, hire them on the market. Researches on transaction costs face with the unavailability of information and methodological difficulties in measuring their critical variables. There`s still the need for further methodological deepening. The theoretical framework includes classic works of TCE and Agency Theory, but also more recent works, outside the mainstream of TCE, which warn about the existence of strategies in use of specific assets that aren`t necessarily aligned with the classical ideas of TCE. The Brazilian oil industry is the focus of this thesis, that aimed to evaluate the efficiency of contracts involving high specificity service outsourced by Petrobras. In order to this, we made the categorization of outsourced services in terms of specificity, as well the description of services with higher specificity. Then, we verified the existence of relationship between the specificity of services and a number of variables, being found divergent results than those that are preached by the mainstream of TCE. Then, we designed a DEA model to analyze the efficiency in the use of onshore drilling rigs, identified among the services of highest specificity. The next step was the application of the model to evaluate the performance of drilling rigs contracts. Finally, we verified the existence of relationship between the efficiency of contracts and a number of variables, being found, again, results not consistent with the theory mainstream. Regarding to analyze of efficiency of drilling rigs contracts, the model developed is compatible with what is found in academic productions in efficiency of drilling rigs. The results on efficiency show a wide range of scores, with efficiencies ranging from 31.79% to 100%, being low the sample efficiency average. There is consonance between the model results and the practices adopted by Petrobras. The results strengthen the DEA as an important tool in studies of efficiency with possibility to use for analysis other types of contracts. In terms of theoretical findings, the results reinforce the arguments that there are situations in which the strategies of the organizations, in terms of use of assets and services of high specificity, do not necessarily follow what is recommended by the mainstream of TCE

Marketing de relacionamento em um provedor de internet: um estudo comparativo que considera a visão gerencial e a percepção dos clientes

The current paper aims at analyzing customer retention in Internet provider services. For this study, we sought to understand what are the client's expectations regarding the services available and compare them with management perception in relation to the use of those services. Identifying the coherence level between the two points of view, management and client, it is possible to pinpoint how service is assessed in real conditions. Then, from this point on, a new vision can be implemented on available services, and new customer service strategies aiming at best serving to their expectation and need, can be rethought. The exploratory research was utilized. It was based on case study, and quantitative and qualitative methods were used. The quantitative method was done by applying the cluster technique with six variables of control derived from the six main services, whose definition was done through qualitative survey of the internal management team. Then, an structured interview with 443 clients, from a probabilistic sample of 800 costumers. The total number of active clients of the internet provider is of 10.677. Client perception in relation to services varied, if compared with the four services that were under the managerial metric method, this comparison showed a more positive evaluation than the real use of the service. Thus, it was observed that the value of each service available for the client depends on his/her perception of it, regardless of using or not the offered service. As a result, it is possible to understand which services offered by the company under study effectively contribute to a good client-company relationship, and the upkeep of those clients

Determinantes da Estrutura de Capital de Companhias Abertas Brasileiras Não-Financeiras: Um Estudo Empírico com Dados em Painel

When a company desires to invest in a project, it must obtain resources needed to make the investment. The alternatives are using firm s internal resources or obtain external resources through contracts of debt and issuance of shares. Decisions involving the composition of internal resources, debt and shares in the total resources used to finance the activities of a company related to the choice of its capital structure. Although there are studies in the area of finance on the debt determinants of firms, the issue of capital structure is still controversial. This work sought to identify the predominant factors that determine the capital structure of Brazilian share capital, non-financial firms. This work was used a quantitative approach, with application of the statistical technique of multiple linear regression on data in panel. Estimates were made by the method of ordinary least squares with model of fixed effects. About 116 companies were selected to participate in this research. The period considered is from 2003 to 2007. The variables and hypotheses tested in this study were built based on theories of capital structure and in empirical researches. Results indicate that the variables, such as risk, size, and composition of assets and firms growth influence their indebtedness. The profitability variable was not relevant to the composition of indebtedness of the companies analyzed. However, analyzing only the long-term debt, comes to the conclusion that the relevant variables are the size of firms and, especially, the composition of its assets (tangibility).This sense, the smaller the size of the undertaking or the greater the representation of fixed assets in total assets, the greater its propensity to long-term debt. Furthermore, this research could not identify a predominant theory to explain the capital structure of Brazilian

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts

Juventude e vulnerabilidade social :no contexto intra-urbano de Natal, RN

The use of the term social vulnerability in the study of the reproduction of the social inequalities in Brazil, still, is recent. The social vulnerability is linked to the indicators of social risk. The work approaches the youth's social vulnerability and your relationship with the education, considering the youth a, among other groups socially excluded, vulnerable, in the Brazilian metropolises. It is guided by the methodological theoretical formulations on this thematic one developed by the Rede Metrópoles in the ambit of the project, " Observatory of the Metropolises: territory, social cohesion and democratic governability ( Project Millennium CNPq) and your unfoldings in the Natal group. Empirically, forehead a methodological proposal - still in construction - and it accomplishes a " pilot " study for the city of Natal with base in the data of the Census of IBGE 2000, that proposes mensurar the importance of the social characteristics of the neighborhood on the considered youths' educational acting those that are in the strip from 15 to 24 years. It considers that the youths' educational " earnings as being influenced not only for the social context of the family, also, for your space location in the city - social context of the neighborhood. With base in the results can verify that the youths of the city of Natal present situations of social vulnerability so much in the ambit of the family as expresses in the social space of the neighborhood. Such vulnerability are verified in the low educational indexes, in the high unemployment rates and in the presented social conditions of the researched areas. The youths, residents of those neighborhoods, they are considered vulnerable socially because original of a precarious source of " assets " and opportunities. There is in Natal a low " structure of assets and opportunities " - accessible to the youth

PUPSI :uma proposta de processo unificado para políticas de segurança da informação

The way to deal with information assets means nowadays the main factor not only for the success but also for keeping the companies in the global world. The number of information security incidents has grown for the last years. The establishment of information security policies that search to keep the security requirements of assets in the desired degrees is the major priority for the companies. This dissertation suggests a unified process for elaboration, maintenance and development of information security policies, the Processo Unificado para Políticas de Segurança da Informação - PUPSI. The elaboration of this proposal started with the construction of a structure of knowledge based on documents and official rules, published in the last two decades, about security policies and information security. It's a model based on the examined documents which defines the needed security policies to be established in the organization, its work flow and identifies the sequence of hierarchy among them. It's also made a model of the entities participating in the process. Being the problem treated by the model so complex, which involves all security policies that the company must have. PUPSI has an interative and developing approach. This approach was obtained from the instantiation of the RUP - Rational Unified Process model. RUP is a platform for software development object oriented, of Rational Software (IBM group). Which uses the best practice known by the market. PUPSI got from RUP a structure of process that offers functionality, diffusion capacity and comprehension, performance and agility for the process adjustment, offering yet capacity of adjustment to technological and structural charges of the market and the company

Turismo e patrimônio cultural: processo de tombamento e estratégias de utilização turística do Centro Histórico de Natal/RN

In a globalized society, the relations between heritage and tourism are reflected in an ambiguous reality, shaped between the interests of preservation and the aspirations for economic benefits. On the one hand, the cities as a main generating cultural offerings needs to contemplate its heritage as a development axis, finding in the cultural tourism promotion a strategy to support the high cost of recovery and maintenance of its historical center and its expressions cultural. On the other, adds to the new requirements of demand, causing the tourism projects to turn to the cultural factor in the formation of their products, which allows municipalities to attract the growing cultural tourism segment. In this perspective, this study develops into a focused cross-cut in the analysis of Natal’s Historical City Center, in order to understand how this cultural heritage fallen has been used by the municipal administration for tourism. By understanding the heritage as a reference to identity and memory, as well as a cultural symbol of Natal society, characterized as an element surrounded by complex and strictly private situations, it identified the need for a qualitative approach to his deep understanding. The in-depth case study developed in two stages, first the realization of bibliographical and documentary research; and thereafter the interpretation of data collected through semi-structured interviews with municipal administrators and local residents. The survey results show that the official representatives of heritage are concerned about the preservation of the material dimension of the architectural heritage of the city, however, still can not reach and sensitize the local population, which seems to be part of a process that should be democratic and strengthening the sense of belonging of these people. Finally, it indicates an absence of revitalization strategies by the current municipal public administration for Natal’s Historical City Center, revealing a speech covered by a positivist interpretation of tourism, which deals with the use of assets by the scope of the marketing empiricism.

Análise da eficiência de contratos de serviços de elevada especificidade terceirizados pela petrobras

The definition of the boundaries of the firms is subject that has occupied the organizational theorists long ago, being the seminal work of Coase (1937) indicated as the trigger for one theoretical evolution, with emphasis on governance structures, which led to a modern theory of incomplete contracts. The Transaction Cost Economics (TCE) and Agency Theory arise within this evolution, being widely used in studies related to the theme. Empirically, data envelopment analysis (DEA) has established itself as a suitable tool for analysis of efficiency. Although TCE argues that specific assets must be internalized, recent studies outside the mainstream of theory show that, often, firms may decide, for various reasons, hire them on the market. Researches on transaction costs face with the unavailability of information and methodological difficulties in measuring their critical variables. There`s still the need for further methodological deepening. The theoretical framework includes classic works of TCE and Agency Theory, but also more recent works, outside the mainstream of TCE, which warn about the existence of strategies in use of specific assets that aren`t necessarily aligned with the classical ideas of TCE. The Brazilian oil industry is the focus of this thesis, that aimed to evaluate the efficiency of contracts involving high specificity service outsourced by Petrobras. In order to this, we made the categorization of outsourced services in terms of specificity, as well the description of services with higher specificity. Then, we verified the existence of relationship between the specificity of services and a number of variables, being found divergent results than those that are preached by the mainstream of TCE. Then, we designed a DEA model to analyze the efficiency in the use of onshore drilling rigs, identified among the services of highest specificity. The next step was the application of the model to evaluate the performance of drilling rigs contracts. Finally, we verified the existence of relationship between the efficiency of contracts and a number of variables, being found, again, results not consistent with the theory mainstream. Regarding to analyze of efficiency of drilling rigs contracts, the model developed is compatible with what is found in academic productions in efficiency of drilling rigs. The results on efficiency show a wide range of scores, with efficiencies ranging from 31.79% to 100%, being low the sample efficiency average. There is consonance between the model results and the practices adopted by Petrobras. The results strengthen the DEA as an important tool in studies of efficiency with possibility to use for analysis other types of contracts. In terms of theoretical findings, the results reinforce the arguments that there are situations in which the strategies of the organizations, in terms of use of assets and services of high specificity, do not necessarily follow what is recommended by the mainstream of TCE

Marketing de relacionamento em um provedor de internet: um estudo comparativo que considera a visão gerencial e a percepção dos clientes

The current paper aims at analyzing customer retention in Internet provider services. For this study, we sought to understand what are the client's expectations regarding the services available and compare them with management perception in relation to the use of those services. Identifying the coherence level between the two points of view, management and client, it is possible to pinpoint how service is assessed in real conditions. Then, from this point on, a new vision can be implemented on available services, and new customer service strategies aiming at best serving to their expectation and need, can be rethought. The exploratory research was utilized. It was based on case study, and quantitative and qualitative methods were used. The quantitative method was done by applying the cluster technique with six variables of control derived from the six main services, whose definition was done through qualitative survey of the internal management team. Then, an structured interview with 443 clients, from a probabilistic sample of 800 costumers. The total number of active clients of the internet provider is of 10.677. Client perception in relation to services varied, if compared with the four services that were under the managerial metric method, this comparison showed a more positive evaluation than the real use of the service. Thus, it was observed that the value of each service available for the client depends on his/her perception of it, regardless of using or not the offered service. As a result, it is possible to understand which services offered by the company under study effectively contribute to a good client-company relationship, and the upkeep of those clients

Determinantes da Estrutura de Capital de Companhias Abertas Brasileiras Não-Financeiras: Um Estudo Empírico com Dados em Painel

When a company desires to invest in a project, it must obtain resources needed to make the investment. The alternatives are using firm s internal resources or obtain external resources through contracts of debt and issuance of shares. Decisions involving the composition of internal resources, debt and shares in the total resources used to finance the activities of a company related to the choice of its capital structure. Although there are studies in the area of finance on the debt determinants of firms, the issue of capital structure is still controversial. This work sought to identify the predominant factors that determine the capital structure of Brazilian share capital, non-financial firms. This work was used a quantitative approach, with application of the statistical technique of multiple linear regression on data in panel. Estimates were made by the method of ordinary least squares with model of fixed effects. About 116 companies were selected to participate in this research. The period considered is from 2003 to 2007. The variables and hypotheses tested in this study were built based on theories of capital structure and in empirical researches. Results indicate that the variables, such as risk, size, and composition of assets and firms growth influence their indebtedness. The profitability variable was not relevant to the composition of indebtedness of the companies analyzed. However, analyzing only the long-term debt, comes to the conclusion that the relevant variables are the size of firms and, especially, the composition of its assets (tangibility).This sense, the smaller the size of the undertaking or the greater the representation of fixed assets in total assets, the greater its propensity to long-term debt. Furthermore, this research could not identify a predominant theory to explain the capital structure of Brazilian

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Análise experimental do efeito da diversificação em carteiras de ações: a relação entre risco e quantidade de ativos sob a ótica da estratégia ingênua

The objective is to analyze the relationship between risk and number of stocks of a portfolio for an individual investor when stocks are chosen by "naive strategy". For this, we carried out an experiment in which individuals select actions to reproduce this relationship. 126 participants were informed that the risk of first choice would be an asset average of all standard deviations of the portfolios consist of a single asset, and the same procedure should be used for portfolios composed of two, three and so on, up to 30 actions . They selected the assets they want in their portfolios without the support of a financial analysis. For comparison we also tested a hypothetical simulation of 126 investors who selected shares the same universe, through a random number generator. Thus, each real participant is compensated for random hypothetical investor facing the same opportunity. Patterns were observed in the portfolios of individual participants, characterizing the curves for the components of the samples. Because these groupings are somewhat arbitrary, it was used a more objective measure of behavior: a simple linear regression for each participant, in order to predict the variance of the portfolio depending on the number of assets. In addition, we conducted a pooled regression on all observations by analyzing cross-section. The result of pattern occurs on average but not for most individuals, many of which effectively "de-diversify" when adding seemingly random bonds. Furthermore, the results are slightly worse using a random number generator. This finding challenges the belief that only a small number of titles is necessary for diversification and shows that there is only applicable to a large sample. The implications are important since many individual investors holding few stocks in their portfolios

Tangibilidade, classe de ativos e estrutura de capital das empresas listadas na BM&FBOVESPA

This study aims to investigate the influence of the asset class and the breakdown of tangibility as determinant factors of the capital structure of companies listed on the BM & FBOVESPA in the period of 2008-2012. Two current assets classes were composed and once they were grouped by liquidity, they were also analyzed by the financial institutions for credit granting: current resources (Cash, Bank and Financial Applications) and operations with duplicates (Stocks and Receivables). The breakdown of the tangible assets was made based on its main components provided as warrantees for loans like Machinery & Equipment and Land & Buildings. For an analysis extension, three metrics for leverage (accounting, financial and market) were applied and the sample was divided into economic sectors, adopted by BM&FBOVESPA. The data model in dynamic panel estimated by a systemic GMM of two levels was used in this study due its strength to problems of endogenous relationship as well as the omitted variables bias. The found results suggest that current resources are determinants of the capital structure possibly because they re characterized as proxies for financial solvency, being its relationship with debt positive. The sectorial analysis confirmed the results for current resources. The tangibility of assets has inverse proportional relationship with the leverage. As it is disintegrated in its main components, the significant and negative influence of machinery & equipment was more marked in the Industrial Goods sector. This result shows that, on average, the most specific assets from operating activities of a company compete for a less use of third party resources. As complementary results, it was observed that the leverage has persistence, which is linked with the static trade-off theory. Specifically for financial leverage, it was observed that the persistence is relevant when it is controlled for the lagged current assets classes variables. The proxy variable for growth opportunities, measured by the Market -to -Book, has the sign of its contradictory coefficient. The company size has a positive relationship with debt, in favor of static trade-off theory. Profitability is the most consistent variable in all the performed estimations, showing strong negative and significant relationship with leverage, as the pecking order theory predicts