7 resultados para Susceptible infected susceptible epidemilogical model
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
For a long time, we believed in the pattern that tropical and south hemisphere species have high survival. Nowadays results began to contradict this pattern, indicating the need for further studies. Despite the advanced state of the study of bird population parameters, little is known about their variation throughout the year and the factors affecting them. Reproduction, for example, is one factor that may alter adult survival rates, because during this process the breeding pair allocates resources to maintain itself to maintain offspring, making itself more susceptible to diseases and predation. The aim of this study was to estimate survival and population size of a Central and South America passerine, Tachyphonus rufus (Boddaert, 1783), testing hypotheses about the factors that define these parameters. We performed data collection between Nov/2010 and ago/2012 in 12 ha plot, in a fragment of Atlantic Forest in northeastern Brazil. We used capture-mark-recapture methods to generate estimates using Closed Design Robust model in the program MARK. We generated Multi-state models to test some assumptions inherent to Closed Robust Design. The influence of co-variables (time, rain and reproductive cycle) and the effect of transient individuals were measured. Capture, recapture and apparent survival parameters were defined by reproductive cycle, while temporary dispersal was influence by rain. The estimates showed a higher apparent survival during the non-breeding period (92% ± 1%) than during breeding (40% ± 9%), revealing a cost of reproduction and suggesting a trade-off between surviving and reproducing. The low annual survival observed (34%) did not corroborate the pattern of high rates expected for a tropical bird. The largest population size was estimated to be 56 individuals in Nov/11, explained by high recruitment of juveniles, while the lowest observed in May/12: 10 individuals, probably as a result of massive influx of competitor species. Results from this study add to the growing literature on life history of Neotropical species. We encourage studies like this especially in Brazil, where there are few information, and suggest that covariates related to habitat quality and environmental changes should be tested, so that we can generate increasingly reliable models
Resumo:
The pressure for a new pattern of sustainable development began to require of modern organizations the conciliation between competitiveness and a environmental protection. In this sense, a tool that acts in the implementation of structured strategies is the Environmental Management System (EMS), which focuses on improving environmental performance. This improvement, in turn, can generate to the organizations many benefits , among which, obtaining competitive advantages, susceptible of measurement from different perspectives. One of these is the application of VRIO model, reasoned by the Resource-Based View (RBV), which considers that differences between companies occurs due to differences between its internal resources and capabilities. However, although was been found some studies in the literature that evaluate the competitive potential of certain organizations , such assessments are not performed on specific objects, like the SEM s. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the resources and capabilities (environmental strategies) adopted by the SGA of the Verdegreen Hotel, identifying which of these have the potential to generate competitive advantage. For this, this exploratory-descriptive character study and delineated as field research and case study was used as data collection tools: a literature survey, semi-structured interviews, document research and participant observation. The interpretation of results and consolidation of information were conducted from a qualitative approach, using two techniques of data analysis, namely: content analysis and analysis through VRIO model. The results show that the hotel is quite structured in relation to their EMS, as well as reaching related to improving the management of environmental factors, strengthening the image and gains in competitiveness benefits. On the other hand, the main difficulties for the implementation of the system are related to employees and suppliers. With regard to environmental strategies adopted, of the 25 strategies identified, 10 showed the potential to generate competitive advantage
Resumo:
The growing demand in the use of composite materials necessitates a better understanding of its behavior related to many conditions of loading and service, as well as under several ways of connections involved in mechanisms of structural projects. Within these project conditions are highlighted the presence of geometrical discontinuities in the area of cross and longitudinal sections of structural elements and environmental conditions of work like UV radiation, moisture, heat, leading to a decrease in final mechanical response of the material. In this sense, this thesis aims to develop studies detailed (experimental and semi-empirical models) the effects caused by the presence of geometric discontinuity, more specifically, a central hole in the longitudinal section (with reduced cross section) and the influence of accelerated environmental aging on the mechanical properties and fracture mechanism of FGRP composite laminates under the action of uniaxial tensile loads. Studies on morphological behavior and structural degradation of composite laminates are performed by macroscopic and microscopic analysis of affected surfaces, in addition to evaluation by the Measurement technique for mass variation (TMVM). The accelerated environmental aging conditions are simulated by aging chamber. To study the simultaneous influence of aging/geometric discontinuity in the mechanical properties of composite laminates, a semiempirical model is proposed and called IE/FCPM Model. For the stress concentration due to the central hole, an analisys by failures criteria were performed by Average-Stress Criterion (ASC) and Point-Stress Criterion (PSC). Two polymeric composite laminates, manufactured industrially were studied: the first is only reinforced by short mats of fiberglass-E (LM) and the second where the reinforced by glass fiber/E comes in the form of bidirectional fabric (LT). In the conception configurations of laminates the anisotropy is crucial to the final mechanical response of the same. Finally, a comparative study of all parameters was performed for a better understanding of the results. How conclusive study, the characteristics of the final fracture of the laminate under all conditions that they were subjected, were analyzed. These analyzes were made at the macroscopic level (scanner) microscope (optical and scanning electron). At the end of the analyzes, it was observed that the degradation process occurs similarly for each composite researched, however, the LM composite compared to composite LT (configurations LT 0/90º and LT ±45º) proved to be more susceptible to loss of mechanical properties in both regarding with the central hole as well to accelerated environmental aging
Resumo:
Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River
Resumo:
The Apodi river basin, particularly within the snippet that crosses Pau dos Ferros - RN city, place anthropogenic actions that interfere in the dynamic environment by modifying the local landscape. The reflection of these actions can be seen in the floods that occur in rainy periods (February to may) virtually every year in the city. It is important to stress that the project of integration of the waters of the San Francisco basin with the northern basin of Northeastern will perennial the main channel of the river basin, and generate greater impacts in the region. This work sought to define a methodology able to delimit areas susceptible to flooding in cities of semiarid Northeast based on the Pau dos Ferros RN city. The dissertation is divided into two chapters and introduction. The introduction presents a theoretical frame based on discussion of the concept of risk, their main characteristics and subdivisions; floods; geotecnologies; Apodi River basin; municipal data Pau dos Ferros RN and design integration of Francisco basin with the northern basins Northeast. The first chapter evaluates the urban expansion process between 1987 and 2008, delimiting the flood areas and analyzes the relationship between urban growth and retention areas. The second chapter identifies the flood risk areas in the Pau dos Ferros city. The methodology used was based on tools of geographic information system GIS from software SPRING/INPE 5.1, as well as bibliographical, satellite images, aerial photographs and field activities. The results obtained enabled view the rapid expansion of the urban area of Pau dos Ferros, which has doubled in a period of 22 years. The population density checks with greater intensity in South-central portion of the city, in flood areas and not flood (Cap. 01). It was noted also that some neighborhoods along the River Apodi are susceptible to more instances of flooding ranging from minimum to maximum, while in neighborhoods near the Riacho Cajazeiras floods occur to a lesser extent because of altimetry higher and lower water volume. (Cap. 02). It is expected that this work will help in the preparation of flood risk municipal map subsidising managers in implementing public policies targeted to the softening of urban flood-related issues in Pau dos Ferros RN and serve as a model for mapping of other cities with similar characteristics analyzed in this work
Resumo:
This thesis describes the general behavior of the northern shore of the State of Rio Grande do Norte relating beach profile morphology with hydrodynamic and sedimentological parameters. The Macau and Serra Oil Field are inserted on this area and are under accelerated coastal erosion. At these oil fields are installed oil wells from PETROBRAS, nowadays located directly in the shoreline, under constant attacks of coastal processes (e.g. waves, tides and currents), which promote an intense morphodynamic variability of this sandy coast. The area was monitored for 24 months in three different stations (P01, P02 and P03). The methodology applied involved current techniques of beach profiles, hydrodynamical processes, remote sensing and geophysics. A synthesis of results obtained through the use of different time scales (monthly, lunar cycle, seasonal, annual) from a coastal dynamics study is presented. The average wind direction corresponded to 77ºAz (NE). The steepness of the berm and of the shoreface, as well as coastal current direction, do not present major changes, with an average of 36º for the steepness of the berm, 15º for the shoreface and 15º for the coastal current direction. This data set allows us to infer that the months of larger coastal erosion were November/2000 and April/2001, because of the largest wave parameter during this time. The months of worse coastal erosion in this area are related with the increasing wavy energy. This in turn, seems to be related to seasonal climatic variations, with the wave energy and tide currents speed increasing during months of minor precipitations (June to January). The months of worse coastal erosion were September and November, when the largest wave parameters and speed currents are measured in the area. Since these months are included on the period of minor precipitations, we related the coastal erosion to seasonal climatic variations. The results obtained during these 24 months of monitoring confirms a situation of accentuated erosion, mainly in Profile 03 (Barra do Corta-Cachorro), where the wave height, period, and coastal current speed are always larger than the values found in Profile 02 (Macau5). Probably these values are more expressive in Profile 03, because it does not present any natural structure of protection against the wave impacts, as the barrier island located at Ponta do Tubarão, or the sand banks in front of Macau5. The transport of the sediments occurs from East to West, and the sand accumulation is more pronounced on Profile 03 intertidal zone, where there are embrionary dunes in dryer months. The tidal currents speed, on the other hand, is more accentuated in the Macau5 area (Profile 02). At Ponta do Tubarão, the tidal currents presented a preferential direction for NE, at times of flood, currents and for NW, at times of ebb current; at Barra do Corta-Cachorro the direction of the currents were predominantly for NW, independent of the tide phase, coinciding with the preferential direction of the longshore current. This currents inversion at Ponta do Tubarão is attributed to the presence of the Ponta do Tubarão island barrier and by the communication channel of the lagoon with the sea. The tide currents are better observed in protected areas, as in the Ponta do Tubarão, when they present inversion in their direction accordingly to the flood and ebb tide. In open areas, as in Barra do Corta-Cachorro, the tide currents are overprinted by the longshore currents. Sediment analysis does not show important modifications in grain size related to seasonality (dry- and rainy seasons). On the foreshore and backshore zones, the sediments vary from fine to medium sand, while in the shoreface they very from fine to very sands. The grains are mostly spheres, varying from sub rounded to sub angled. Quartz is the main component alongside Feldspat and heavy minerals as accessory components. Biogenic content is also present and mainly represented by mollusks fragments. The calculated sediment transport show values around 100 m3/day. The morphodynamic studies indicated that this is a reflexive area from October to April, and intermediate from May to September. The Relative Tide Range-RTR for this area is 4 < RTR < 15, and so classified in the mixed wave-tide group. Having this exposed we can affirm that the more active natural factors in this area are the currents, followed by the tides and the winds. The anthropic factors are exclusively local and punctual (Macau and Serra Oil Field). Taking in account the economic importance of the area, as well as the intensity of coastal processes acting on this shore, it is important a continuity of the monthly environmental monitoring looking for variations on longer-period cycles. These data have been stored on the geo-referenced database of the projects MARPETRO and PETRORISCO (REDE 05), aiming to model the coastal and sea environment, susceptible to oil spills and their derivatives
Resumo:
This thesis presents the results of application of SWAN Simulating WAves Nearshore numerical model, OF third generation, which simulates the propagation and dissipation of energy from sea waves, on the north continental shelf at Rio Grande do Norte, to determine the wave climate, calibrate and validate the model, and assess their potential and limitations for the region of interest. After validation of the wave climate, the results were integrated with information from the submarine relief, and plant morphology of beaches and barrier islands systems. On the second phase, the objective was to analyze the evolution of the wave and its interaction with the shallow seabed, from three transverse profiles orientation from N to S, distributed according to the parallel longitudinal, X = 774000-W, 783000-W e 800000-W. Subsequently, it was were extracted the values of directional waves and winds through all the months between november 2010 to november 2012, to analyze the impact of these forces on the movement area, and then understand the behavior of the morphological variations according to temporal year variability. Based on the results of modeling and its integration with correlated data, and planimetric variations of Soledade and Minhoto beach systems and Ponta do Tubarão and Barra do Fernandes barrier islands systems, it was obtained the following conclusions: SWAN could reproduce and determine the wave climate on the north continental shelf at RN, the results show a similar trend for the measurements of temporal variations of significant height (HS, m) and the mean wave period (Tmed, s); however, the results of parametric statistics were low for the estimates of the maximum values in most of the analyzed periods compared data of PT 1 and PT 2 (measurement points), with alternation of significant wave heights, at times overrated with occasional overlap of swell episodes. By analyzing the spatial distribution of the wave climate and its interaction with the underwater compartmentalization, it was concluded that there is interaction of wave propagation with the seafloor, showing change in significant heights whenever it interacts with the seafloor features (beachrocks, symmetric and asymmetric longitudinal dunes, paleochannel, among others) in the regions of outer, middle and inner shelf. And finally, it is concluded that the study of the stability areas allows identifications of the most unstable regions, confirming that the greatest range of variation indicates greater instability and consequent sensitivity to hydrodynamic processes operating in the coastal region, with positive or negative variation, especially at Ponta do Tubarão and Barra do Fernandes barrier islands systems, where they are more susceptible to waves impacts, as evidenced in retreat of the shoreline