Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Modelagem de dados de falhas de equipamentos de sub-superfície em poços de petróleo da Bacia Potiguar

This master´s thesis presents a reliability study conducted among onshore oil fields in the Potiguar Basin (RN/CE) of Petrobras company, Brazil. The main study objective was to build a regression model to predict the risk of failures that impede production wells to function properly using the information of explanatory variables related to wells such as the elevation method, the amount of water produced in the well (BSW), the ratio gas-oil (RGO), the depth of the production bomb, the operational unit of the oil field, among others. The study was based on a retrospective sample of 603 oil columns from all that were functioning between 2000 and 2006. Statistical hypothesis tests under a Weibull regression model fitted to the failure data allowed the selection of some significant predictors in the set considered to explain the first failure time in the wells

SurRFE -Sub-rede de filtragens específicas

The increasing of the number of attacks in the computer networks has been treated with the increment of the resources that are applied directly in the active routers equip-ments of these networks. In this context, the firewalls had been consolidated as essential elements in the input and output control process of packets in a network. With the advent of intrusion detectors systems (IDS), efforts have been done in the direction to incorporate packets filtering based in standards of traditional firewalls. This integration incorporates the IDS functions (as filtering based on signatures, until then a passive element) with the already existing functions in firewall. In opposite of the efficiency due this incorporation in the blockage of signature known attacks, the filtering in the application level provokes a natural retard in the analyzed packets, and it can reduce the machine performance to filter the others packets because of machine resources demand by this level of filtering. This work presents models of treatment for this problem based in the packets re-routing for analysis by a sub-network with specific filterings. The suggestion of implementa- tion of this model aims reducing the performance problem and opening a space for the consolidation of scenes where others not conventional filtering solutions (spam blockage, P2P traffic control/blockage, etc.) can be inserted in the filtering sub-network, without inplying in overload of the main firewall in a corporative network

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

Avaliação da disponibilidade hídrica e da demanda hídrica no trecho do Rio Piranhas-Açu entre os açudes Coremas-mãe D´água e Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves

Piranhas-Açu basin is a Federal watershed with a drainage area of 43.681,5 km2, sited at Brazilian northeast semi arid, with 60% of your area in Paraiba State and 40% in Rio Grande do Norte State. The main river, Piranhas-Açu, has strategic importance for development of these states, because it s an essential source for many socio-economics activities developed along watercourse. The river s reach between Coremas-Mãe D`água Dam and Armando Ribeiro Gonçalves Dam has many irrigation projects, and supply many riverside cities. All this activities practiced in this river s reach consumes high water volumes. Due the importance of this stream and the necessity of an adequate management, this work aims for an impartial and detailed evaluation of real water supply conditions in this river s reach, by the application of hydrological modeling, including the arrangement of main dams in tributaries, and storage reservoir water balance. The rainfall-discharge model s applied in each sub-basins it was selected the model MODHISA- Hydrological Model of Semi Arid, that is a concentrated model with easy application. The simulation produced 50 years of inflows into the reservoirs, for which, were constructed the guaranties curves; and produced 50 years of synthetic discharge data in relevant points on the river and on its affluents; so it was constructed the permanence curves. Confronting the available discharge with the current and futures volumes of raw water captured in this river s reach, it was verified that de demands have high guaranties. This work concluded that the MODHISA Model is suitable to reproduce the hydrologic characteristics of Piranhas-Açu sub-basins, and showing good results

Caracterização tectono-estratigráfica da sequência transicional na sub-bacia de Sergipe

This thesis deals with the tectonic-stratigraphic evolution of the Transitional Sequence in the Sergipe Sub-basin (the southern segment of the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin, Northeast Brazil), deposited in the time interval of the upper Alagoas/Aptian stage. Sequence boundaries and higher order internal sequences were identified, as well as the structures that affect or control its deposition. This integrated approach aimed to characterize the geodynamic setting and processes active during deposition of the Transitional Sequence, and its relations with the evolutionary tectonic stages recognized in the East Brazilian Margin basins. This subject addresses more general questions discussed in the literature, regarding the evolution from the Rift to the Drift stages, the expression and significance of the breakup unconformity, the relationships between sedimentation and tectonics at extensional settings, as well as the control on subsidence processes during this time interval. The tectonic-stratigraphic analysis of the Transitional Sequence was based on seismic sections and well logs, distributed along the Sergipe Sub-basin (SBSE). Geoseismic sections and seismic facies analysis, stratigraphic profiles and sections, were compiled through the main structural blocks of this sub-basin. These products support the depositional and tectonic-stratigraphic evolutionary models built for this sequence. The structural analysis highlighted similarities in deformation styles and kinematics during deposition of the Rift and Transitional sequences, pointing to continuing lithospheric extensional processes along a NW trend (X strain axis) until the end of deposition of the latter sequence was finished by the end of late Aptian. The late stage of extension/rifting was marked by (i) continuous (or as pulses) fault activity along the basin, controling subsidence and creation of depositional space, thereby characterizing upper crustal thinning and (ii) sagstyle deposition of the Transitional Sequence at a larger scale, reflecting the ductile stretching and thinnning of lower and sub crustal layers combined with an increasing importance of the thermal subsidence regime. Besides the late increments of rift tectonics, the Transitional Sequence is also affected by reactivation of the border faults of SBSE, during and after deposition of the Riachuelo Formation (lower section of the Transgressive Marine Sequence, of Albian age). It is possible that this reactivation reflects (through stress propagation along the newlycreated continental margin) the rifting processes still active further north, between the Alagoas Sub-basin and the Pernambuco-Paraíba Basin. The evaporitic beds of the Transitional Sequence contributed to the development of post-rift structures related to halokinesis and the continental margin collapse, affecting strata of the overlying marine sequences during the Middle Albian to the Maastrichtian, or even the Paleogene time interval. The stratigraphic analysis evidenced 5 depositional sequences of higher order, whose vertical succession indicates an upward increase of the base level, marked by deposition of continental siliciclastic systems overlain by lagunar-evaporitic and restricted marine systems, indicating that the Transitional Sequence was deposited during relative increase of the eustatic sea level. At a 2nd order cycle, the Transitional Sequence may represent the initial deposition of a Transgressive Systems Tract, whose passage to a Marine Transgressive Sequence would also be marked by the drowning of the depositional systems. At a 3rd order cycle, the sequence boundary corresponds to a local unconformity that laterally grades to a widespread correlative conformity. This boundary surface corresponds to a breakup unconformity , being equivalent to the Pre-Albian Unconformity at the SBSE and contrasting with the outstanding Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity at the base of the Transitional Sequence; the latter is alternatively referred, in the literature, as the breakup unconformity. This Thesis supports the Pre-Albian Unconformity as marker of a major change in the (Rift-Drift) depositional and tectonic setting at SBSE, with equivalent but also diachronous boundary surfaces in other basins of the Atlantic margin. The Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity developed due to astenosphere uplift (heating under high lithospheric extension rates) and post-dates the last major fault pulse and subsequent extensive block erosion. Later on, the number and net slip of active faults significantly decrease. At deep to ultra deep water basin segments, seaward-dipping reflectors (SDRs) are unconformably overlain by the seismic horizons correlated to the Transitional Sequence. The SDRs volcanic rocks overly (at least in part) continental crust and are tentatively ascribed to melting by adiabatic decompression of the rising astenospheric mantle. Even though being a major feature of SBSE (and possibly of other basins), the Pre-upper Alagoas Unconformity do not correspond to the end of lithospheric extension processes and beginning of seafloor spreading, as shown by the crustal-scale extensional structures that post-date the Transitional Sequence. Based on this whole context, deposition of the Transitional Sequence is better placed at a late interval of the Rift Stage, with the advance of an epicontinental sea over a crustal segment still undergoing extension. Along this segment, sedimentation was controled by a combination of thermal and mechanical subsidence. In continuation, the creation of oceanic lithosphere led to a decline in the mechanical subsidence component, extension was transferred to the mesoceanic ridge and the newly-formed continental margin (and the corresponding Marine Sequence) began to be controlled exclusively by the thermal subsidence component. Classical concepts, multidisciplinary data and new architectural and evolutionary crustal models can be reconciled and better understood under these lines

Evolução tectono-estrutural do Campo de Xaréu (Sub-bacia de Mundaú, Bacia do Ceará - NE do Brasil: abordagem multiescala e pluriferramental

The Xaréu Oil Field, located in the center-southern portion of the Mundaú Sub-Basin (eastern portion of the Ceará Basin), is characterized by a main Iramework of NW-trending and NE-dipping faults. The faults in the Xaréu Oil Field, among which the Xaréu Fautt stands out, are arranged according to an extensional-listriclan, rooted on a detachment surface corresponding to the Mundaú Fault, the border fautt of Mundaú Sub-Basin. During the tectonic-structural evolution of the Xaréu Oil Field and the Mundaú Sub-Basin, the Mundaú Fault played a crucial role on the control of the geometry of both compartments. The main carbonatic unit in the Xaréu Oil Field, named the Trairí Member(Paracuru Formation of Late Aptian to Early Albian age), contains the largest oil volume in the field, concentrated in structurally-controlled accumulations. The Trairí Member is composed by a variety of carbonatic rocks (massive, bedded or laminated calcilutites, ostracodites, calcarenites and carbonatic rudites, all of them presenting variable degrees of dolomitization). The carbonatic rocks are interbedded into thick packages of black shales and marls, besides local beds of siliciclastic conglomerates, sandstones, siltnes and argillites. From the spatial association and the genetic relationships between the carbonatic and siliciclastic units, it is possible to group them in three lithofacies associations (Marginal Plain, Ramp and Lacustrine Interior) that, together, were developed in a lacustrine system associated to a marginal sabkha. Structural studies based on drill coresthat sample the Trairí Member in the Xaréu Oil Field allowed to characterize two generations of meso- to microscale structures: the D1 group presents a typical hydroplastic character, being characterized by intra/interstratal to oblique-bedding shear zones. The hydroplastic character related to these structures allowed to infer their development at an early-lithilication stage of the Trairí Member, leading to infer an Early Cretaceous age to them. The second group of structures identified in the drill cores, nominated D2 and ascribed to a Neogene age, presents a strictly brttle character, being typilied by normal faults and slickenfibers of re-crystallized clayminerals, ali olthem displaying variable orientations. Although the present faults in the Xaréu Oil Field (and, consequently, in the Mundaú Sub-Basin) were classically relerred as struetures of essentially normal displacement, the kinematics analysis of the meso-to microscaie D1 struetures in the drill cores led to deline oblique displacements (normal with a clockwise strike-slip component) to these faults, indicating a main tectonic transport to ENE. These oblique movements would be responsible for the installation of a transtensive context in the Mundaú Sub-Basin, as part of the transcurrent to translormant opening of the Atlantic Equatorial Margin. The balancing of four struetural cross-sections ofthe Xaréu Oil Field indicates that the Mundaú Fault was responsible for more than 50% of the total stretching (ß factor) registered during the Early Aptian. At the initial stages of the "rifting", during Early Aptianuntil the Holocene, the Mundaú Sub-Basin (and consequently the Xaréu Oil Fleld) accumulated a total stretching between 1.21 and 1.23; in other words, the crust in this segment of the Atlantic Equatorial Margin was subjeeted to an elongation of about 20%. From estimates of oblique displacements related to the faults, it ws possible to construct diagrams that allow the determination of stretching factors related to these displacements. Using these diagrams and assuming the sense 01 dominant teetonictransport towards ENE, it was possible to calculate the real stretching lactors related to the oblique movement 0 of the faults in the Mundaú Sub-Basin. which reached actual values between 1.28 and 1.42. ln addnion to the tectonic-structural studies in the Xaréu Oil Field, the interpretation of remote sensing products, coupled wnh characterization of terrain analogues in seleeted areas along the northern Ceará State (continental margins of the Ceará and Potiguar basins), provided addnional data and constraints about the teetonic-structural evolution of the oil lield. The work at the analogue sites was particularly effective in the recognition and mapping, in semidetail scale, several generations of struetures originated under a brittle regime. Ali the obtained information (from the Xaréu Oil Field, the remote sensor data and the terrain analogues) were jointly interpreted, culminating with the proposnion of an evolutionary model lor this segment of the Atlantic Equatorial Margin; this model that can be applied to the whole Margin, as well. This segmentof the Atlantic Equatorial Margin was delormedin an early E-W (when considered lhe present-day position of the South American Plate) transcurrent to transform regime with dextral kinematics, started Irom, at least, the Early Aptian, which left its record in several outcrops along the continental margin of the Ceará State and specilically in the Xaréu off Field. The continuous operation of the regime, through the Albian and later periods, led to the definitive separation between the South American and African plates, with the formation of oceanic lithosphere between the two continental blocks, due to the emplacement off spreading centers. This process involved the subsequent transition of the transcurrent to a translorm dextral regime, creating lhe Equatorial Atlantic Oceano With the separation between the South American and African plates already completed and the increasing separation between lhe continental masses, other tecton ic mechanisms began to act during the Cenozoic (even though the Cretaceous tectonic regime lasted until the Neogene), like an E-W compressive stress líeld (related to the spreading olthe oceanic floor along lhe M id-Atlantic Ridge and to the compression of the Andean Chain) effective Irom the Late Cretaceous, and a state of general extension olthe horizontal surface (due to the thermal uplift ofthe central portion of Borborema Province), effective during the Neogene. The overlap of these mechanisms during the Cenozoic led to the imprint of a complex tectonic framework, which apparently influenced the migration and entrapment 01 hydrocarbon in the Ceará Basin

Caracterização de reservatórios siliciclásticos neoaptianos: um estudo do membro carmópolis no campo de Camorim, sub-bacia de Sergipe, Brasil

The Camorim Oilfield, discovered in 1970 in the shallow water domain of the Sergipe Sub-basin, produces hydrocarbons from the Carmópolis Member of the Muribeca Formation, the main reservoir interval, interpreted as siliciclastics deposited in an alluvial-fluvial-deltaic context during a late rifting phase of Neoaptian age, in the Sergipe-Alagoas Basin. The structural setting of the field defines different production blocks, being associated to the evolution of the Atalaia High during the rift stage and subsequent reactivations, encompassing NE-SW trending major normal faults and NWEW trending secondary faults. The complexity of this field is related to the strong facies variation due to the interaction between continental and coastal depositional environments, coupled with strata juxtaposition along fault blocks. This study aims to geologically characterize its reservoirs, to provide new insights to well drilling locations in order to increase the recovery factor of the field. Facies analysis based on drill cores and geophysical logs and the 3D interpretation of a seismic volume, provide a high resolution stratigraphic analysis approach to be applied in this geodynamic transitional context between the rift and drift evolutionary stages of the basin. The objective was to define spatial and time relations between production zones and the preferential directions of fluid flow, using isochore maps that represent the external geometry of the deposits and facies distribution maps to characterize the internal heterogeneities of these intervals, identified in a 4th order stratigraphic zoning. This work methodology, integrated in a 3D geological modelling process, will help to optimize well drilling and hydrocarbons production. This methodology may be applied in other reservoirs in tectonic and depositional contexts similar to the one observed at Camorim, for example, the oil fields in the Aracaju High, Sergipe Sub-basin, which together represent the largest volume of oil in place in onshore Brazilian basins

Detecção de áreas degradadas na sub-bacia hidrográfica do rio taperoá/pb, utilizando parâmetros físicos dos sensores modis/terra e tm/landsat

This study includes the results of the analysis of areas susceptible to degradation by remote sensing in semi-arid region, which is a matter of concern and affects the whole population and the catalyst of this process occurs by the deforestation of the savanna and improper practices by the use of soil. The objective of this research is to use biophysical parameters of the MODIS / Terra and images TM/Landsat-5 to determine areas susceptible to degradation in semi-arid Paraiba. The study area is located in the central interior of Paraíba, in the sub-basin of the River Taperoá, with average annual rainfall below 400 mm and average annual temperature of 28 ° C. To draw up the map of vegetation were used TM/Landsat-5 images, specifically, the composition 5R4G3B colored, commonly used for mapping land use. This map was produced by unsupervised classification by maximum likelihood. The legend corresponds to the following targets: savanna vegetation sparse and dense, riparian vegetation and exposed soil. The biophysical parameters used in the MODIS were emissivity, albedo and vegetation index for NDVI (NDVI). The GIS computer programs used were Modis Reprojections Tools and System Information Processing Georeferenced (SPRING), which was set up and worked the bank of information from sensors MODIS and TM and ArcGIS software for making maps more customizable. Initially, we evaluated the behavior of the vegetation emissivity by adapting equation Bastiaanssen on NDVI for spatialize emissivity and observe changes during the year 2006. The albedo was used to view your percentage of increase in the periods December 2003 and 2004. The image sensor of Landsat TM were used for the month of December 2005, according to the availability of images and in periods of low emissivity. For these applications were made in language programs for GIS Algebraic Space (LEGAL), which is a routine programming SPRING, which allows you to perform various types of algebras of spatial data and maps. For the detection of areas susceptible to environmental degradation took into account the behavior of the emissivity of the savanna that showed seasonal coinciding with the rainy season, reaching a maximum emissivity in the months April to July and in the remaining months of a low emissivity . With the images of the albedo of December 2003 and 2004, it was verified the percentage increase, which allowed the generation of two distinct classes: areas with increased variation percentage of 1 to 11.6% and the percentage change in areas with less than 1 % albedo. It was then possible to generate the map of susceptibility to environmental degradation, with the intersection of the class of exposed soil with varying percentage of the albedo, resulting in classes susceptibility to environmental degradation