4 resultados para Stochastic SIS logistic model

em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)


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The aim of the present study was to analyze cardiovascular risk of women with a history of preeclampsia, as well as its follow-upin the National Health System.This is a cross-sectional quantitative research conducted at the Januário Cicco Maternity School. The study population was composed of 573 women selected from a databank belonging to the Women s Health Research Group of the Gynecology Department at Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, with a history of preeclampsia, and normotensives who gave birth at this institution five years before. The final sample consisted of 147 women, 64 in the group with a history of PE and 83 normotensives. Data were collected on a questionnaire containing the following: sociodemographic aspects, anthropometric measures, life habits, personal and family history of pregnancy-induced hypertension, family history of cardiovascular diseases and frequency of measuring current blood pressure levels. In relation to the association between cardiovascular risk and altered blood pressure (≥130x85 mmHg), the likelihood of exhibiting the latter condition was significantly higher in women with a history of preeclampsia (CI 95% 4.12-38.92), the overweight and obese (CI 95% 1.70-20.75), and in those with a family historyof CVD and personal history of PIH (CI 95% 0.78-47.07 and CI 95% 3.20-25.39) respectively. Likewise, the probability of having altered blood pressure was higher in women with fasting glycemia ≥100mg/dL (CI 95% 2.09-24.73), as well as in those with triglycerides ≥150mg/dl (CI 95% 1.72-9.66). After fitting the logistic model, diagnosis previous preeclampsia and altered triglycerides remained as explanatory variables.The women with a history of preeclampsia five years before exhibited altered blood pressure levels, clinical and laboratory manifestations suggestive of elevated risk for cardiovascular disease, as well as family and personal history of hypertension. There is no differential treatment or adequate outpatient follow-up for this population in basic health care units

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The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of Ocular Toxocariasis, Diffuse Unilateral Subacute Neuroretinitis (DUSN), Toxoplasma gondii infection and Ocular Toxoplasmosis in a student population in Natal-RN/Brazil and relate it to demographic, epidemiologic and socio-economic risk factors. The incidence of DUSN was observed in patients at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte Ophthalmology Service and the Prontoclinica de Olhos Ophthalmology clinic in Natal. In cases where a worm was found in the subretinal space, the result of treatment with photocoagulation using Green Laser (Eye Light ALCON) was evaluated in relation to final visual result. The sample was randomly selected among the schools of the four districts of Natal, according to the type of institution (public or private), its level (elementary or secondary), and study period (morning, afternoon or evening). The school population was studied from March to May, 2001. Initially, the students answered a questionnaire to evaluate demographic, epidemiologic and socio-economic risk factors. Afterwards, the following procedures were carried out: blood samples were taken for Toxoplasmosis (IgG, IgM) serology, hemogram, ophthalmological examination, consisting of clinical history, measurement of visual acuity, refraction under cycloplegia, biomicroscopy of the anterior segment and annexa, funduscopy and examination of extrinsic motility. The prevalence of Toxocariasis was 0.2% or 2 per one thousand students. The sample was insufficient to estimate the prevalence of DUSN. Seventy patients with DUSN diagnosis were examined from January, 2001 to January, 2003. A live worm was found in the subretinal space of all four patients in the acute phase, and these were treated with laser photocoagulation. After follow-up (average = 11.5 months), visual acuity improved in three eyes and remained unaltered in one eye. Worms were found in 22 of the 66 patients in the chronic phase, and these also were treated with laser photocoagulation. After a follow-up period of 13.1 months, on average, visual acuity improved in two of the patients, remained unchanged in 19 and worsened in one. The comparison of visual result before and after treatment was not statistically significant (p = 0.302). The diagnosis of DUSN in the acute phase, followed by prompt localization and destruction of the worm by photocoagulation, can improve the patient s vision. However, destruction of the worm by laser photocoagulation in eyes with DUSN in the chronic phase does not improve visual acuity. Seroprevalence for IgG was 46% (Confidence Interval CI 95%-42.9-49.2%) and for IgM it was 1.4% (CI 95% = 0.8-2.4%). The prevalence of ocular lesion was 1.15% (CI 95% = 0.6 - 2.0%). Socio-economic conditions were determinants in the prevalence of Systemic and Ocular Toxoplasmosis in the bivaried analysis and confirmed in the multivaried analysis (mother s scholarity illiterate/ OR = 2.9 and p < 0.001). The T. gondii infection prevalence, although high, was less than that found in studies performed in the South and Southeast of Brazil and that of Ocular Toxoplasmosis was completely discrepant, varying from 5 to 17 times less. Although important epidemiological variables such as owning a cat, drinking unfiltered water, and coming into contact with rivers or lakes showed an association in the preliminary analysis, they lost their influence when included in the logistic model. Future studies are scheduled to begin in March, 2004, in collaboration with other Brazilian and American universities in an attempt to discover the reason for these findings, as well as identifying the different strains of Toxoplasma gondii, and studying the sources of water utilized by the population of Natal Brazil

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Foundations support constitute one of the types of legal entities of private law forged with the purpose of supporting research projects, education and extension and institutional, scientific and technological development of Brazil. Observed as links of the relationship between company, university, and government, foundations supporting emerge in the Brazilian scene from the principle to establish an economic platform of development based on three pillars: science, technology and innovation – ST&I. In applied terms, these ones operate as tools of debureaucratisation making the management between public entities more agile, especially in the academic management in accordance with the approach of Triple Helix. From the exposed, the present study has as purpose understanding how the relation of Triple Helix intervenes in the fund-raising process of Brazilian foundations support. To understand the relations submitted, it was used the interaction models University-Company-Government recommended by Sábato and Botana (1968), the approach of the Triple Helix proposed by Etzkowitz and Leydesdorff (2000), as well as the perspective of the national innovation systems discussed by Freeman (1987, 1995), Nelson (1990, 1993) and Lundvall (1992). The research object of this study consists of 26 state foundations that support research associated with the National Council of the State Foundations of Supporting Research - CONFAP, as well as the 102 foundations in support of IES associated with the National Council of Foundations of Support for Institutions of Higher Education and Scientific and Technological Research – CONFIES, totaling 128 entities. As a research strategy, this study is considered as an applied research with a quantitative approach. Primary research data were collected using the e-mail Survey procedure. Seventy-five observations were collected, which corresponds to 58.59% of the research universe. It is considering the use of the bootstrap method in order to validate the use of the sample in the analysis of results. For data analysis, it was used descriptive statistics and multivariate data analysis techniques: the cluster analysis; the canonical correlation and the binary logistic regression. From the obtained canonical roots, the results indicated that the dependency relationship between the variables of relations (with the actors of the Triple Helix) and the financial resources invested in innovation projects is low, assuming the null hypothesis of this study, that the relations of the Triple Helix do not have interfered positively or negatively in raising funds for investments in innovation projects. On the other hand, the results obtained with the cluster analysis indicate that entities which have greater quantitative and financial amounts of projects are mostly large foundations (over 100 employees), which support up to five IES, publish management reports and use in their capital structure, greater financing of the public department. Finally, it is pertinent to note that the power of the classification of the logistic model obtained in this study showed high predictive capacity (80.0%) providing to the academic community replication in environments of similar analysis.

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The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period