5 resultados para Soja - Pesquisa
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop
Resumo:
Biodiesel is an alternative fuel, renewable, biodegradable and nontoxic. The transesterification of vegetable oils or animal fat with alcohol is most common form of production of this fuel. The procedure for production of biodiesel occurs most commonly through the transesterification reaction in which catalysts are used to accelerate and increase their income and may be basic, acid or enzyme. The use of homogeneous catalysis requires specific conditions and purification steps of the reaction products (alkyl ester and glycerol) and removal of the catalyst at the end of the reaction. As an alternative to improve the yield of the transesterification reaction, minimize the cost of production is that many studies are being conducted with the application of heterogeneous catalysis. The use of nano-structured materials as catalysts in the production of biodiesel is a biofuel alternative for a similar to mineral diesel. Although slower, can esterify transesterified triglycerides and free fatty acids and suffer little influence of water, which may be present in the raw material. This study aimed at the synthesis, characterization and application of nano-structured materials as catalysts in the transesterification reaction of soybean oil to produce biodiesel by ethylic route. The type material containing SBA-15 mesoporous lanthanum embedded within rightly Si / La = 50 was used catalyst. Solid samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, infrared spectroscopy, nitrogen adsorption and desorption. For the transesterification process, we used a molar ratio of 20:1 alcohol and oil with 0.250 g of catalyst at 60°C and times of 6 hours of reaction. It was determined the content of ethyl esters by H-NMR analysis and gas chromatography. It was found that the variable of conversion obtained was 80%, showing a good catalytic activity LaSBA-15 in the transesterification of vegetable oils via ethylic route
Resumo:
The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.
Resumo:
This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop
Resumo:
Biodiesel is an alternative fuel, renewable, biodegradable and nontoxic. The transesterification of vegetable oils or animal fat with alcohol is most common form of production of this fuel. The procedure for production of biodiesel occurs most commonly through the transesterification reaction in which catalysts are used to accelerate and increase their income and may be basic, acid or enzyme. The use of homogeneous catalysis requires specific conditions and purification steps of the reaction products (alkyl ester and glycerol) and removal of the catalyst at the end of the reaction. As an alternative to improve the yield of the transesterification reaction, minimize the cost of production is that many studies are being conducted with the application of heterogeneous catalysis. The use of nano-structured materials as catalysts in the production of biodiesel is a biofuel alternative for a similar to mineral diesel. Although slower, can esterify transesterified triglycerides and free fatty acids and suffer little influence of water, which may be present in the raw material. This study aimed at the synthesis, characterization and application of nano-structured materials as catalysts in the transesterification reaction of soybean oil to produce biodiesel by ethylic route. The type material containing SBA-15 mesoporous lanthanum embedded within rightly Si / La = 50 was used catalyst. Solid samples were characterized by X-ray diffraction, thermogravimetric analysis, infrared spectroscopy, nitrogen adsorption and desorption. For the transesterification process, we used a molar ratio of 20:1 alcohol and oil with 0.250 g of catalyst at 60°C and times of 6 hours of reaction. It was determined the content of ethyl esters by H-NMR analysis and gas chromatography. It was found that the variable of conversion obtained was 80%, showing a good catalytic activity LaSBA-15 in the transesterification of vegetable oils via ethylic route
