Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Estudo da radiação ultravioleta na Cidade de Natal-RN

There were studied the variation of the solar ultraviolet radiation (UVR) in four wavelengths (305 nm, 320 nm, 340 nm e 380 nm) and erythemic dose, measured in Natal RN Brazil, from January 2001 until December 2007, using the ground ultraviolet radiometer of the Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais / Centro Regional do Nordeste INPE-CRN, fixed on the roof of the Laboratório de Variáveis Ambientais Tropiciais LAVAT-INPE-CRN. It was verified that the mean value of the UVR in the city reachs the HIGH index before 09h00 a.m. and VERY HIGH before 09h40 a.m.; it was also verified that, except in the months of June and July, in the other months of the year the UVR reachs the HIGH index before 10h00 a.m., despite of the recommendations broadcasting in the media about the safe time to people stay ashore on the beaches of the city. After 14h30 p.m., the UVR reachs the MODERATE index in any month of the year. These evidence are valid to all years of the period studied, i.e., 2001 to 2007. The year of 2004 presented the lower mean values of UVR indices, and the year of 2007 presented the higher mean values of UVR index. It was prove, by means of the analysis of variance (ANOVA), the variation in the four wavelengths and in the erythemic dose. Considering that the city has high indices of skin cancer and cataract, the results of the research may be use as a data source to studies that intend to support programs of public health. At the same time, the results of the research may be applied to material science and agriculture studies