O uso de modelos ocultos de Markov no estudo do fluxo de rios intermitentes

In this work, we present our understanding about the article of Aksoy [1], which uses Markov chains to model the flow of intermittent rivers. Then, we executed an application of his model in order to generate data for intermittent streamflows, based on a data set of Brazilian streams. After that, we build a hidden Markov model as a proposed new approach to the problem of simulation of such flows. We used the Gamma distribution to simulate the increases and decreases in river flows, along with a two-state Markov chain. The motivation for us to use a hidden Markov model comes from the possibility of obtaining the same information that the Aksoy’s model provides, but using a single tool capable of treating the problem as a whole, and not through multiple independent processes

Análise das propriedades termofísicas, mecânicas e geométricas de telhas cerâmicas queimadas em forno caieira e forno abóbada

In the industry of ceramic in Rio G. do Norte, tile stands out as the most manufactured product by this industry, being the intermittent kiln abóbada and caieira the principal type of kiln used in burning. There was a need to make a study of the influence exerted by the type of kiln in which tiles are burnt in their thermo physical properties. The analysis started with 24 raw samples of tile, which was split in two groups of 12 samples and burnt in Abóbada and Caieira kiln. Besides that, it was made study of the tax of heat transfer to the environment (for each kiln). After having been burnt the samples were taken for laboratory analysis. The properties verified were impermeability, determination of dry mass, absorption of water, the load of bending rupture and its geometric characteristics, the tests were conducted following the currents standards. The tests were carried out according to the ABNT - NBR 15310. The calculation of the rate of heat transfer showed that the abóbada kiln is more efficient than the Caieira, however the results of tests on the samples revealed no superiority of one over another sample. So the furnace had no influence on the performance of the ceramic tiles

Sistemática integrativa de Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 e Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991 (Teleostei: Cichlidae) das bacias hidrográficas do Nordeste do Brasil

Understanding the historical and ecological relationships which are influent in current biological diversity is one of the most challenging tasks of evolutionary biology. Recent systematics emphasizes the need of integrative approaches to delimit different lineages and species. The northeastern Brazil, mostly placed in Caatinga biome, is characterized by a semi-arid weather, low precipitation and seasonal behavior of rivers. This region is regarded lacking as ichthyological knowledge and one of the most threatened by anthropic activities. Further, will be affected by a massive water diverpsion work that will transfer waters from São Francisco basin, to other major four basins: Jaguaribe, Apodi-Mossoró, Piranhas-Açu and Paraiba do Norte. Loss of diversity and richness, hibridizitation, community interactions changes, population homogenization, changes in water quality and flow regime, are examples of environmental impacts already related with similar works. The present study aims to investigate morphological and molecular variation of Cichlasoma orientale Kullander 1983 and Crenicichla menezesi Ploeg 1991, two cichlid species present in northeastern Brazil basins. Further, the study aims to evaluate the influence of geomorphological and climatic processes in this variation, and point some possible impacts of the artificial connectivity which can be brought by São Francisco interbasin water transfer to their population dynamics. Geometric morphometrics and phylogeographical analysis were used to investigate the populations from three different hydrological regions. Our results showed a significant morphological variation of populations from basins that are involved in the São Franscisco s diversion project, not related to an ancient separation between populations, emphasizing morphological variation which could represent a set of plastic responses to the variable hydrological regime in Northeastern Brazil. The role of plastical responses in naturally variable habitats as well as the potential disturbs that could be brought by the interbasin water transfer works are discussed here. Further, our molecular data allowed us to make inferences about species distribution and their taxonomy, and identification of a potential new species of Crenicichla for São Francisco river basin. Our data also allowed to identify some shared haplotypes for both species, which could be related to lineage sorting scenarios or recent gene flow between populations. However a strong structure in most of the pairwise comparisons between populations for both species was revealed. Climatic events such as Atlantic forest regression during the Pleistocene, sea level fluctuations and dispersion by paleorivers in the mouth of Apodi-Mossoró river, and neotectonic events regulating the connection between drainages are likely to have had a contribution for the actual lineages distribution in northeastern Brazil. Further, analysis of molecular variation (AMOVA and SAMOVA) showed that the actual basin s isolation is an important factor to molecular variation, in spite of the signal of recent contact between some basins. Different genetic diversity patterns between species could be related to multiple historic events of colonization, basins landscapes or biological differences. The present study represents the first effort of integrative systematics involving fish species of northeastern Brazil, and showed important morphological and molecular patterns which could be irrecoverably affected by the artificial connection that might be caused by the São Francisco interbasin water transfer

Efeito da seca na dinâmica dos grupos funcionais fitoplanctônicos em reservatórios eutróficos do semiárido

Reservoirs are the main sources of surface water in Brazil´s semiarid region. The majority of these water supplies, however, are compromised by eutrophication. A severe drought in 2012 contributed to significant losses in water volume, influencing the availability of resources (nutrients and light) for phytoplankton. The aim of this study is to understand the dynamics of the functional groups of phytoplankton and the factors that affect them during a severe drought in the semiarid reservoirs of the northeast. We therefore studied the Dourado, Gargalheiras and Passagem das Traíras reservoirs in Rio Grande do Norte from January 2012 to January 2013. The effect of drought favoured homogeneity within the reservoir, in relation to biotic and abiotic variables, notably the absence of water supply given the lack of flow from its tributaries (intermittent river). The phytoplankton functional groups of bloomforming cyanobacteria (SN, S1 and M) dominated throughout the year 2012, in both the shallow and deep areas of the three reservoirs studied. The groups were related to high concentrations of volatile solids, total phosphorus and ammonia, and high turbidity. Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (SN group) was the species with the greatest biomass in the three reservoirs. M group (Sphaerocavum brasiliense) performed better in shallow waters with more available phosphorus. Our data showed that high concentrations of nutrients and low availability of light, besides the stability of the water column due to lack of flow and the system´s high residence time, favoured the dominance of bloom-forming cyanobacteria groups, especially those tolerant to shadow