Modelagem de usinas eólicas através de um processo de Markov e técnicas de confiabilidade para a estimativa anual da energia produzida

This study aims to use a computational model that considers the statistical characteristics of the wind and the reliability characteristics of a wind turbine, such as failure rates and repair, representing the wind farm by a Markov process to determine the estimated annual energy generated, and compare it with a real case. This model can also be used in reliability studies, and provides some performance indicators that will help in analyzing the feasibility of setting up a wind farm, once the power curve is known and the availability of wind speed measurements. To validate this model, simulations were done using the database of the wind farm of Macau PETROBRAS. The results were very close to the real, thereby confirming that the model successfully reproduced the behavior of all components involved. Finally, a comparison was made of the results presented by this model, with the result of estimated annual energy considering the modeling of the distribution wind by a statistical distribution of Weibull

Analise das melhores práticas em business process management: estudo de casos em organizações hospitalares de Natal/RN

O gerenciamento dos processos organizacionais vem sendo estudado pela ciência administrativa como forma de romper com o paradigma da estrutura organizacional funcional através da Gestão por Processos. O Business Process Management ( BPM alinhado às estratégias organizacionais e suportado cada vez mais pela Tecnologia da Informação (TI), proporciona clareza nas diversas pontas do processo colaborando para sua melhoria contínua com o objetivo de gerar valor agregado ao cliente. As organizações de saúde estão entre as empresas prestadoras de serviço pouco estudadas em relação ao gerenciamento por processos. Assim, este estudo analisou por meio de um estudo empírico de natureza qualitativa, como estão sendo conduzidos os processos organizacionais hospitalares à luz das melhores práticas em BPM. A pesquisa foi realizada através do estudo de casos múltiplos realizados em duas organizações hospitalares na cidade de Natal/RN. A literatura de referência apresentou diversos fatores para um desempenho otimizado em BPM, tratados nesta pesquisa como as melhores práticas em BPM. A partir da revisão da literatura foi elaborada uma síntese das melhores práticas de BPM que serviu de base para elaboração do modelo da pesquisa utilizado para coleta e análise dos dados. Este modelo indicou onze categorias que foram utilizadas para elaboração do roteiro de estrevistas semi-estruturadas, através da técnica de análise de conteúdo, com categorização de grade fechada. As categorias foram agrupadas em duas dimensões: Elementos relacionados à gestão ( governança ; liderança , alinhamento estratégico , cultura e conhecimento ) e elementos relacionados aos processos ( desenho , responsável , executores , tecnologia da informação e indicadores ), e ainda foi identificada uma terceira categoria: escritório de processos . Para seleção dos sujeitos desta pesquisa foi adotada a estratégia em cadeia ou bola de neve . Foi possível identificar que todas as categorias apontadas no modelo de pesquisa emergem entre os fatores buscados pelas organizações hospitalares para o gerenciamento por processos com destaque para categorias: cultura ; conhecimento ; desenho ; tecnologia da informação e indicadores . Em complemento às categorias de análise, foram identificadas dificuldades relacionadas à comunicação e integração dos diversos elos do processo. Além disso, constatou-se que nos hospitais investigados há um desvio do conceito de BPM no que diz respeito a seu objetivo final: agregar valor ao cliente. A pesquisa concluiu que o gerenciamento por processos nas organizações hospitalares investigadas encontra-se em fase inicial ou em desenvolvimento, sendo necessário superar as barreiras da comunicação e edificar uma cultura organizacional orientada às necessidades dos clientes para aplicação das melhores práticas de BPM, desta forma pesquisas futuras sobre este tema em outras organizações hospitalares, podem facilitar um estudo comparativo e ampliar o conhecimento no assunto

Eutrofização e capacidade de carga de fósforo de seis reservatórios a bacia do Rio Seridó, região semi-árida do Estado do RN

The eutrofization is a natural process of accumulation of nutrients in aquatic´s body that it has been accelerated for the human´s actives, mainly the related with the activities of camp, industrial and the inadequate disposition of the domestic sewage. The enrichment of the aquatic´s body with nutrients, mainly the nitrogen and the phosphorus, and the consequent proliferation of algae and Cyanobacteria can commit the quality of the water for the public provisioning, for the fish farming and for other ends. The problem becomes more critical when there is a shortage of water naturally as in the semi-arid area of the Brazilian northeast. Before that problem this work had as objective evaluates the trophic state of six reservoirs of the basin of River Seridó of Rio Grande of Norte and also estimate the capacity of load of match of the reservoir and risk probabilities based on the established limits by the resolution Conama 357/05. The results demonstrate that the six reservoirs are eutrofization, with concentration of total phosphorus and cloro a in the water upster to 50 e 12 μg l-1. The results show that space homogeneity exists in the state trophic of the reservoirs, but a significant variation interanual in function of the increase of the concentrations of nutrients and decrease of the transparency of the water with the reduction of the body of water accumulated in the reservoirs.The results of the simulation risk estocastic show that the reservoirs could receive annually from 72 to 216 Kg of P, assuming a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 30 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total match in the water of these reservoirs. This load could be high in until 360 kg of P a year in case the managers assume a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 50 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total phosphorus in the waters of these reservoirs

Efeitos de manipulações ascendentes e descendentes sobre a comunidade fitoplanctônica em um reservatório eutrófico no semi-árido brasileiro

Top-down (grazing) and bottom-up (nutrient, light) controls are important in freshwater ecosystems regulation. Relative importance of these factors could change in space and time, but in tropical lakes bottom-up regulation has to been appointed as more influent. Present study aimed to test the hypothesis that phytoplankton growths rate in Armando Ribeiro reservoir, a huge eutrophic reservoir in semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte state, is more limited by nutrient available then zooplankton grazing pressure. Bioassay was conduced monthly from September (2008) to August (2009) manipulating two levels of nutrients (with/without addition) and two level of grazers (with/without removal). Experimental design was factorial 2X2 with four treatments (X5), (i) control with water and zooplankton from natural spot ( C ), (ii) with nutrient addition ( +NP ), (iii) with zooplankton remove ( -Z ) and (iv) with zooplankton remove and nutrient addition ( -Z+NP ). For bioassay confection transparent plastic bottles (500ml) was incubate for 4 or 5 days in two different depths, Secchi`s depth (high luminosity) and 3 times Secchi`s depth (low luminosity). Water samples were collected from each bottle in begins and after incubates period for chlorophyll a concentration analysis and zoopalnktonic organisms density. Phytoplankton growths rates were calculated. Bifactorial ANOVA was performance to test if had a significant effect (p<0,005) of nutrient addition and grazers remove as well a significant interaction between factors on phytoplankton growths rates. Effect magnitude was calculated the relative importance of each process. Results show that phytoplankton growth was in generally stimulated by nutrient addition, as while zooplankton remove rarely stimulated phytoplankton growth. Some significant interactions happening between nutrient additions and grazers remove on phytoplankton growth. In conclusion this study suggests that in studied reservoir phytoplankton growth is more controlled by ascendent factors than descendent

Relações de poder, fragmentação e gestão do território no semi-árido nordestinho: um outro olhar sobre o Cariri paraibano

This study aims to analize the Cariri Paraibano territory, as a product of relations of power that were being established along its historic process of territory formation. In this process, the fragmentation and the territory management are fundamental elements to socioterritorial reality comprehension. The theoretical-conceptual basis is based on notions of territory, region, power and territory management, which are articulated to the opinions and empiric confirmations origined from interviews made with several social actions. They also were made photographical records and researches on books, newspapers and magazines, as well on other information sources related to the object of studying. Obtained data confirm the pressuposement on which the relations of dominations and the used methods by the power s owners in the region created a little fruitful political practice and little adequate to the process of active participation of the local population on the territory management, even being on disagreement with the new political-institutional mechanisms, which take to political-administrative more democratic and participative in the country

Políticas públicas para o turismo e desenvolvimento local: reflexões a partir dos "caminhos de fé" no semi-árido potiguar

This study analyzes the event of the Feast of Our Lady of Grace, located in the municipality of Florania / RN as a tourism product, inserted in a process of transformation of a sacred place, in principle determined by religious motives, in a destination "tourist-religious". We seek to understand to what extent state intervention, with policies aimed at boosting the tourism sector as well as the interactions among key actors in the space, are able to modify and streamline the city of Florania, particularly Feast of Our Lady of Grace. The methodology also includes the review of the literature using the deductive method the application of questionnaires to the pilgrims, tourists and pilgrims totaling 150 questionnaires. Along with the economic agents of the municipality, 36 questionnaires were administered according to the model adopted by REDESIST. Complement this research interviews with key Officials of the Municipal Government and the Church. Despite the recognition by the actors of the importance of tourism to the economy of the city of Florania, encouraging the development of the sector is still lagging, some worked and policies / programs listed actually pass by the "Paths of Faith" of Florania. Concerning the Feast of Our Lady of Grace, the bottlenecks reported by researchers and economic agents are very partially affected by the policies / programs and when this occurs, the effort seems to be only reactive, resulting from the pressures experienced by the municipal government (mayor)

Projeto e Operação em Escala Semi-Industrial de um Equipamento para Tratamento de Águas Produzidas na Indústria do Petróleo Utilizando Nova Tecnologia: misturador-decantador à inversão de fases - MDIF

The aim of this work is to use a new technology in the treatment of produced wastewaters from oil industry. An unit for treat produced waters called UTMDIF, was designed, installed and operated in an industrial plant for treatment of effluents from oil industry. This unit operates by means of the method of separation of phase inversion and can become a promising alternative to solve the problem of oil/water separation. This method constitutes the basis of the working of a new design of mixersettler of vertical configuration which occupies small surface area. The last characteristic becomes specially important when there is limitation on the lay-out of the plant, for example, over maritime platforms to explore oil. This equipment in a semi-industrial scale treats produced wastewaters contaminated with oil at low concentrations (ranging from 30 to 150 mg/L) and throughputs of 320 m3/d (47,4 m3 m-2 h-1). Good results were obtained in oil/water separation which leads to the necessary specification to discharge those wastewaters. Besides, the non dependence of the efficiency of separation in spite of the salinity of the medium becomes the equipment an attractive new technology to treat wastewaters containing oil at low concentrations

Um método semi-automatizado para elicitação de requisitos de acessibilidade Web

In the context of Software Engineering, web accessibility is gaining more room, establishing itself as an important quality attribute. This fact is due to initiatives of institutions such as the W3C (World Wide Web Consortium) and the introduction of norms and laws such as Section 508 that underlie the importance of developing accessible Web sites and applications. Despite these improvements, the lack of web accessibility is still a persistent problem, and could be related to the moment or phase in which this requirement is solved within the development process. From the moment when Web accessibility is generally regarded as a programming problem or treated when the application is already developed entirely. Thus, consider accessibility already during activities of analysis and requirements specification shows itself a strategy to facilitate project progress, avoiding rework in advanced phases of software development because of possible errors, or omissions in the elicitation. The objective of this research is to develop a method and a tool to support requirements elicitation of web accessibility. The strategy for the requirements elicitation of this method is grounded by the Goal-Oriented approach NFR Framework and the use of catalogs NFRs, created based on the guidelines contained in WCAG 2.0 (Web Content Accessibility Guideline) proposed by W3C

Sustentabilidade ambiental do cultivo intensivo de Tilápias (Oreochromis niloticus) em tanques-rede e a capacidade de suporte de quatro reservatórios em uma região semi-árida tropical

Intensive production of tilápias, in cages or net tanks, has been proposed as an alternative to increase fish production, that would generate income and offer animal protein in different tropical and subtropical countries. However, this system of production enriches the aquatic environment with nutrients, principally nitrogen and phosphor derived from the dejections of the metabolism of food and eventual food surpluses consumed by the fishes; the alimentation of the fishes in this production modality is dependent on fish food. The emission of these nutritions in levels above the limit that the system is capable metabolize can provoke a phenomenon called eutrofization, putting in risk the quality of water for public and for fish production activities. In this context the work had as a goal to evaluate the trófico state of the four reservoirs for intensive production of tilapias in net-tanks, in other words, he maximum fish production that the reservoirs are able to hold, keeping the desired quantity of nutrient concentrations in water for public use. The results of the four ecosystems in the Boqueirão de Parelhas reservoir showed that it s possible to have an intensive production of tilapias in net tanks, in this environment the annual average concentration of phosphor, was below the considered critical limits to deflagrate the process of eutrofization in semi-arid regions. The carrying capacity of the Boqueirão de Parelhas reservoir depends on the conversion of the feeding facts and phosphor content in the food but it should vary between 100 and 300 tons per year over a variation in the conversion feeding factor of 1,7 to 2,0:1 and a variation in the P in the food of 0,7 to 0,9%

Estimação paramétrica e não-paramétrica em modelos de markov ocultos

In this work we study the Hidden Markov Models with finite as well as general state space. In the finite case, the forward and backward algorithms are considered and the probability of a given observed sequence is computed. Next, we use the EM algorithm to estimate the model parameters. In the general case, the kernel estimators are used and to built a sequence of estimators that converge in L1-norm to the density function of the observable process

Analise das melhores práticas em business process management: estudo de casos em organizações hospitalares de Natal/RN

O gerenciamento dos processos organizacionais vem sendo estudado pela ciência administrativa como forma de romper com o paradigma da estrutura organizacional funcional através da Gestão por Processos. O Business Process Management ( BPM alinhado às estratégias organizacionais e suportado cada vez mais pela Tecnologia da Informação (TI), proporciona clareza nas diversas pontas do processo colaborando para sua melhoria contínua com o objetivo de gerar valor agregado ao cliente. As organizações de saúde estão entre as empresas prestadoras de serviço pouco estudadas em relação ao gerenciamento por processos. Assim, este estudo analisou por meio de um estudo empírico de natureza qualitativa, como estão sendo conduzidos os processos organizacionais hospitalares à luz das melhores práticas em BPM. A pesquisa foi realizada através do estudo de casos múltiplos realizados em duas organizações hospitalares na cidade de Natal/RN. A literatura de referência apresentou diversos fatores para um desempenho otimizado em BPM, tratados nesta pesquisa como as melhores práticas em BPM. A partir da revisão da literatura foi elaborada uma síntese das melhores práticas de BPM que serviu de base para elaboração do modelo da pesquisa utilizado para coleta e análise dos dados. Este modelo indicou onze categorias que foram utilizadas para elaboração do roteiro de estrevistas semi-estruturadas, através da técnica de análise de conteúdo, com categorização de grade fechada. As categorias foram agrupadas em duas dimensões: Elementos relacionados à gestão ( governança ; liderança , alinhamento estratégico , cultura e conhecimento ) e elementos relacionados aos processos ( desenho , responsável , executores , tecnologia da informação e indicadores ), e ainda foi identificada uma terceira categoria: escritório de processos . Para seleção dos sujeitos desta pesquisa foi adotada a estratégia em cadeia ou bola de neve . Foi possível identificar que todas as categorias apontadas no modelo de pesquisa emergem entre os fatores buscados pelas organizações hospitalares para o gerenciamento por processos com destaque para categorias: cultura ; conhecimento ; desenho ; tecnologia da informação e indicadores . Em complemento às categorias de análise, foram identificadas dificuldades relacionadas à comunicação e integração dos diversos elos do processo. Além disso, constatou-se que nos hospitais investigados há um desvio do conceito de BPM no que diz respeito a seu objetivo final: agregar valor ao cliente. A pesquisa concluiu que o gerenciamento por processos nas organizações hospitalares investigadas encontra-se em fase inicial ou em desenvolvimento, sendo necessário superar as barreiras da comunicação e edificar uma cultura organizacional orientada às necessidades dos clientes para aplicação das melhores práticas de BPM, desta forma pesquisas futuras sobre este tema em outras organizações hospitalares, podem facilitar um estudo comparativo e ampliar o conhecimento no assunto

Eutrofização e capacidade de carga de fósforo de seis reservatórios a bacia do Rio Seridó, região semi-árida do Estado do RN

The eutrofization is a natural process of accumulation of nutrients in aquatic´s body that it has been accelerated for the human´s actives, mainly the related with the activities of camp, industrial and the inadequate disposition of the domestic sewage. The enrichment of the aquatic´s body with nutrients, mainly the nitrogen and the phosphorus, and the consequent proliferation of algae and Cyanobacteria can commit the quality of the water for the public provisioning, for the fish farming and for other ends. The problem becomes more critical when there is a shortage of water naturally as in the semi-arid area of the Brazilian northeast. Before that problem this work had as objective evaluates the trophic state of six reservoirs of the basin of River Seridó of Rio Grande of Norte and also estimate the capacity of load of match of the reservoir and risk probabilities based on the established limits by the resolution Conama 357/05. The results demonstrate that the six reservoirs are eutrofization, with concentration of total phosphorus and cloro a in the water upster to 50 e 12 μg l-1. The results show that space homogeneity exists in the state trophic of the reservoirs, but a significant variation interanual in function of the increase of the concentrations of nutrients and decrease of the transparency of the water with the reduction of the body of water accumulated in the reservoirs.The results of the simulation risk estocastic show that the reservoirs could receive annually from 72 to 216 Kg of P, assuming a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 30 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total match in the water of these reservoirs. This load could be high in until 360 kg of P a year in case the managers assume a risk of 10% of increasing in more than 50 μg l-1 the annual medium concentrations of total phosphorus in the waters of these reservoirs

Efeitos de manipulações ascendentes e descendentes sobre a comunidade fitoplanctônica em um reservatório eutrófico no semi-árido brasileiro

Top-down (grazing) and bottom-up (nutrient, light) controls are important in freshwater ecosystems regulation. Relative importance of these factors could change in space and time, but in tropical lakes bottom-up regulation has to been appointed as more influent. Present study aimed to test the hypothesis that phytoplankton growths rate in Armando Ribeiro reservoir, a huge eutrophic reservoir in semi-arid region of Rio Grande do Norte state, is more limited by nutrient available then zooplankton grazing pressure. Bioassay was conduced monthly from September (2008) to August (2009) manipulating two levels of nutrients (with/without addition) and two level of grazers (with/without removal). Experimental design was factorial 2X2 with four treatments (X5), (i) control with water and zooplankton from natural spot ( C ), (ii) with nutrient addition ( +NP ), (iii) with zooplankton remove ( -Z ) and (iv) with zooplankton remove and nutrient addition ( -Z+NP ). For bioassay confection transparent plastic bottles (500ml) was incubate for 4 or 5 days in two different depths, Secchi`s depth (high luminosity) and 3 times Secchi`s depth (low luminosity). Water samples were collected from each bottle in begins and after incubates period for chlorophyll a concentration analysis and zoopalnktonic organisms density. Phytoplankton growths rates were calculated. Bifactorial ANOVA was performance to test if had a significant effect (p<0,005) of nutrient addition and grazers remove as well a significant interaction between factors on phytoplankton growths rates. Effect magnitude was calculated the relative importance of each process. Results show that phytoplankton growth was in generally stimulated by nutrient addition, as while zooplankton remove rarely stimulated phytoplankton growth. Some significant interactions happening between nutrient additions and grazers remove on phytoplankton growth. In conclusion this study suggests that in studied reservoir phytoplankton growth is more controlled by ascendent factors than descendent