Três alternativas estocásticas para modelar morbimortalidade por doenças respiratórias e cardiovasculares via variáveis atmosféricas

Climate and air pollution, among others, are responsible factors for increase of health vulnerability of the populations that live in urban centers. Climate changes combined with high concentrations of atmospheric pollutants are usually associated with respiratory and cardiovascular diseases. In this sense, the main objective of this research is to model in different ways the climate and health relation, specifically for the children and elderly population which live in São Paulo. Therefore, data of meteorological variables, air pollutants, hospitalizations and deaths from respiratory and cardiovascular diseases a in 11-year period (2000-2010) were used. By using modeling via generalized estimating equations, the relative risk was obtained. By dynamic regression, it was possible to predict the number of deaths through the atmospheric variables and the betabinomial-poisson model was able to estimate the number of deaths and simulate scenarios. The results showed that the risk of hospitalizations due to asthma increases approximately twice for children exposed to high concentrations of particulate matter than children who are not exposed. The risk of death by acute myocardial infarction in elderly increase in 3%, 6%, 4% and 9% due to high concentrations CO, SO2, O3 and PM10, respectively. Regarding the dynamic regression modeling, the results showed that deaths by respiratory diseases can be predicted consistently. The beta-binomial-poisson model was able to reproduce an average number of deaths by heart insufficiency. In the region of Santo Amaro the observed number was 2.462 and the simulated was 2.508, in the Sé region 4.308 were observed and 4.426 simulated, which allowed for the generation of scenarios that may be used as a parameter for decision. Making with these results, it is possible to contribute for methodologies that can improve the understanding of the relation between climate and health and proved support to managers in environmental planning and public health policies.

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants

Diagnóstico sócio-produtivo-econômico da comunidade de catadores de resíduos sólidos do município de Codó-MA: um estudo de caso

The research was carried out in the urban area in Codó-MA, a small city the east part of Maranhão, which has 4,228.000 km2 (IBGE, 2000) and population of 113,768 hab. (IBGE, 2008). The city is also inside Codó-MA micro-region. The city is located in one of the lacking area in Brazil, where the Human Development Index (IDH) is approximately 0,558. It does not present an adequate model of management when talking about solid residue collecting. All of the solid residue produced and collected in the city is stored in an open area that they call lixão , which is located in a residence area in the suburbs. Because of that, a problem that involves public health and environmental areas, we understand it is necessary to investigate the way the local government treats and manages the solid residue collecting, as well as, the social, economical and productive reality of those who are directly involved in the collecting itself, its productive chain of the material, including the handling, transportation and its final destiny. It means a social, productive, economical diagnosis, that in a such way,the local society and the organs of inspection can act in a better way to control the problems that include solid urban residue and come from a bad administration. That way, this work proposes to carry out a study that has as result a diagnosis with feasible alternatives on management, taking as basis, social and economical aspects that compound this productive chain. This work can bring great contributions to a better local reality through the introduction of an integrated and supported system of management of solid residue that includes a selective collecting and the creation of a sanitary area. Taking that into consideration, we can contribute to minimize the environmental impacts in Codó Novo, caused by the garbage

Análise bioclimática do bairro do Renascença II São Luis-MA: realidade e perspectiva do conforto térmico em espaços externos

The present research concerns about outdoor s thermal comfort conditions in hot-humid climate cities, understanding that life quality is a result of the urban object s type built for the human being in an environment with specific climate and morphological characteristics. It is presented as object of study the correlation between the neighborhood Renascença II s microclimate in São Luis /MA-Brazil, hot-humid climate city, and its urban morphological changes. As well as the thermal comfort s satisfaction level of its outdoor users. The research has as general goal to diagnosis the way these transformations caused by the urbanization influence the Renascença II s microclimate, identifying critical spots of the studied area, in order to contribute with land use recommendations based on bioclimatic architecture concepts and supply bases to urban design decisions adequate to the São Luis climate. It is presented as theoretical bases the urban climate, its concepts and elements. After that, the thermal comfort conditioners and its prediction models of thermal comfort sensation in outdoor are presented. The predictive models are presented along with bioclimatic assessment methods. Finally the use of bioclimatic assessment as an effective tool to identify places that need changes or preservation in order to seek environment quality. The applied methodology was based on the studies of Katzschner (1997), complemented by Oliveira s (1988) and Bustos Romero s (2001) studies that suggest an analysis and evaluation of maps of topography, buildings floors, land use, green areas and land covering, in order to overlap their characteristics and identify climate variable s measurements points; then a quantitative analysis of the climate variables (air temperature and humidity, wind speed and direction) of the chosen points takes place. It was perceived that Renaissance II has no permanence areas as squares or parks, its outdoor has little vegetation and presets high land impermeability and built density levels. The majority of the people interviewed said that was comfortable in a range of air temperature between 27,28ºC and 30,71ºC. The elaboration of a neighborhood master plan is important, which defines strategies for improvement of the life quality of its inhabitants