Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Percepção de riscos ambientais de populações vulneráveis a inundações e deslizamentos de dunas em Natal-RN

In urban, flooding and landslides are among the troubles that most bring human and material loss. Therefore, this study objected to perform an analysis on the risk perception on the population living in social environmental vulnerable places in order to understand what is the way this population realize the risks they are exposed to and what are the outbrave strategies the develop. The first analyzed area was Complexo Passo da Pátria for the flooding risk problematic and then the Cidade Nova neighborhood threatened by the dunes slides. The areas locate, respectively, in the West and East zones of Natal-RN. Using an interview screenplay adapted from risk perception researches from different brazilian cities, it was collected primarily data on the variables: perception, evaluation and choice, safety threshold, adjustment, decision and participation. Due to the studied areas characteristics the qualitative approach adjusted itself to the difficulties for accessing the areas. The studied places characterize for its insecure situation like selling/using drugs, robbery and murder among others. Due to this situation the interviewed individuals were the ones that could be found more accessibly and available in the moment and the interviews were made in the community leader presence of each area. Through the discourse of the respondents analysis it was able to conclude that the interviewed population is exposed to a high vulnerability grade and risks. However it was identified substantial differences between the perception and risks of Complexo Passo da Pátria and bairro Cidade Nova, because in the first area the intervied ones can recognize the high risk they are exposed to in a more emphatic way to the interviewed ones for the Cidade Nova neighborhood. Furthermore, there is a heavy dissatisfaction for the population of the two places about the city hall positions relating to the present problems in the studied areas. It was also identified the strategy development of acquaintanceship with the risk in the research places beyond a feeling of belonging and affection between the dwellers and the places, yet it was more evident for Complexo Passo da Pátria. Though this analysis it was possible to understand and perceptions and the behavior of the individuals or social groups facing the risks as acceptance and rejection of determined risks beyond adaptation measures of living together with the persistence presence of risks. Therefore, qualitative nature researches emphasizing the perception approach are in the fundamental importance in the studies about risks making it possible to offer aids to the urban planning and management in the implement of effective preventive measures and compatible with the population aims

Aspectos do gerenciamento de riscos de tecnologia da informação nas empresas: um estudo de caso múltiplos

The information technology - IT- benefits have been more perceived during the last decades. Both IT and business managers are dealing with subjects like governance, IT-Business alignment, information security and others on their top priorities. Talking about governance, specifically, managers are facing it with a technical approach, that gives emphasis on protection against invasions, antivirus systems, access controls and others technical issues. The IT risk management, commonly, is faced under this approach, that means, has its importance reduced and delegated to IT Departments. On the last two decades, a new IT risk management perspective raised, bringing an holistic view of IT risk to the organization. According to this new perspective, the strategies formulation process should take into account the IT risks. With the growing of IT dependence on most of organizations, the necessity of a better comprehension about the subject becomes more clear. This work shows a study in three public organizations of the Pernambuco State that investigates how those organizations manage their IT risks. Structured interviews were made with IT managers, and later, analyzed and compared with conceptual categories found in the literature. The results shows that the IT risks culture and IT governance are weakly understood and implemented on those organizations, where there are not such an IT risk methodology formally defined, neither executed. In addition, most of practices suggested in the literature were found, even without an alignment with an IT risks management process

Sistemas de gerenciamento de bibliotecas: riscos decorrentes do processo de migração de dados

This work aims to analyze risks related to information technology (IT) in procedures related to data migration. This is done considering ALEPH, Integrated Libray System (ILS) that migrated data to the Library Module present in the software called Sistema Integrado de Gestão de Atividades Acadêmicas (SIGAA) at the Zila Mamede Central Library at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN) in Natal/Brazil. The methodological procedure used was of a qualitative exploratory research with the realization of case study at the referred library in order to better understand this phenomenon. Data collection was able once there was use of a semi-structured interview that was applied with (11) subjects that are employed at the library as well as in the Technology Superintendence at UFRN. In order to examine data Content analysis as well as thematic review process was performed. After data migration the results of the interview were then linked to both analysis units and their system register with category correspondence. The main risks detected were: data destruction; data loss; data bank communication failure; user response delay; data inconsistency and duplicity. These elements point out implication and generate disorders that affect external and internal system users and lead to stress, work duplicity and hassles. Thus, some measures were taken related to risk management such as adequate planning, central management support, and pilot test simulations. For the advantages it has reduced of: risk, occurrence of problems and possible unforeseen costs, and allows achieving organizational objectives, among other. It is inferred therefore that the risks present in data bank conversion in libraries exist and some are predictable, however, it is seen that librarians do not know or ignore and are not very worried in the identification risks in data bank conversion, their acknowledge would minimize or even extinguish them. Another important aspect to consider is the existence of few empirical research that deal specifically with this subject and thus presenting the new of new approaches in order to promote better understanding of the matter in the corporate environment of the information units

Avaliação do potencial genotóxico e citotóxico associado a queima artesanal da castanha de caju no Município de João Câmara

The Brazil is the third largest producer of cashew nuts in the world. Despite the social and economic importance of the cashew nut, its production is still carried out artisanally. One of the main problems encountered in the cashew production chain are the conditions under which the roasting of the nut occurs to obtain the kernel from the shell. In the present study was conducted a biomonitoring of the genotoxic and cytotoxicity effects associated with the elements from the cashew nut roasting in João Câmara - RN, semi-arid region of Brazil. To assess the genotoxic was used the bioassay of micronucleus (MN) in Tradescantia pallida. In addition, it was performed a comparative between the Tradescantia pallida and KU-20 and other biomarkers of DNA damage, such as the nucleoplasmic bridges (NBP) and nuclear fragments (NF) were quantified. The levels of particulate matter (PM1.0, PM2.5, PM10) and black carbon (BC) were also measured and the inorganic chemical composition of the PM2.5 collected was determined using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry analysis and the assessment of the cytotoxicity by MTT assay and exclusion method by trypan blue. . For this purpose, were chosen: the Amarelão community where the roasting occurs and the Santa Luzia farm an area without influence of this process. The mean value of PM2.5 (Jan 2124.2 μg/m3; May 1022.2 μg/m3; Sep 1291.9 μg/m3) and BC (Jan 363.6 μg/m3; May 70.0 μg/m3; Sep 69.4 μg/m3) as well as the concentration of the elements Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, Br and Pb obtained at Amarelão was significantly higher than at Santa Luzia farm. The genotoxicity tests with T. pallida indicated a significant increase in the number of MN, NBP and NF and it was found a negative correlation between the frequency of these biomarkers and the rainfall. The concentrations of 200 μg/mL and 400 μg/mL of PM2.5 were cytotoxic to MRC-5 cells. All together, the results indicated genotoxicity and citotoxicity for the community of Amarelão, and the high rates of PM2.5 considered a potential contributor to this effect, mainly by the high presence of transition metals, especially Fe, Ni, Cu, Cr and Zn, these elements have the potential to cause DNA damage. Other nuclear alterations, such as the NPBs and NFs may be used as effective biomarkers of DNA damage in tetrads of Tradescantia pallida. The results of this study enabled the identification of a serious occupational problem. Accordingly, preventative measures and better practices should be adopted to improve both the activity and the quality of life of the population. These measures are of fundamental importance for the sustainable development of this activity.

Cinemática de partículas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo: avaliação durante paradas operacionais

The new oil reservoirs discoveries in onshore and ultra deep water offshore fields and complex trajectories require the optimization of procedures to reduce the stops operation during the well drilling, especially because the platforms and equipment high cost, and risks which are inherent to the operation. Among the most important aspects stands out the drilling fluids project and their behavior against different situations that may occur during the process. By means of sedimentation experiments, a correlation has been validated to determe the sedimentation particles velocity in variable viscosity fluids over time, applying the correction due to effective viscosity that is a shear rate and time function. The viscosity evolution over time was obtained by carrying out rheologic tests using a fixed shear rate, small enough to not interfere in the fluid gelling process. With the sedimentation particles velocity and the fluid viscosity over time equations an iterative procedure was proposed to determine the particles displacement over time. These equations were implemented in a case study to simulate the cuttings sedimentation generated in the oil well drilling during stops operation, especially in the connections and tripping, allowing the drilling fluid project in order to maintain the cuttings in suspension, avoiding risks, such as stuck pipe and in more drastic conditions, the loss of the well

Avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crianças na rede básica de saúde utilizando o teste de Denver II: identificação de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Riscos ocupacionais e acidentes de trabalho em um serviço de atendimento móvel de urgência do Rio Grande do Norte

Exploratory, descriptive and quantitative study with prospective data, performed in the Mobile Emergency Care Service in the metropolitan region of Natal/RN, in order to identify the knowledge of the multidisciplinary team about the rules of standard precautions and worker safety, to identify occupational hazards peculiar to the activities of this service; characterize work-related accidents (WRA) and know the procedures adopted after each WRA. The population consisted of 162 professionals and data were collected between the months of November and December 2010. As for personal and professional characteristics, of the 162 professional, 12,96% were physicians; 6,79%, nurses; 33,95%, nursing technicians, 46,29%, conductors; 74,70% were male; 43,21% were between 31 and 40 years old; 69,33% lived in Natal/RN, 50,00% had completed high school; 58,64% were married; 69,75% had children, 46,91% were between 1 and 4 years of training; 61,73% had improvement courses; 59,25% had 3 to 4 years of service; 54,32%, with 1-4 years experience in emergency; 44,44% received 1-2 minimum wages; 78,40% received insalubrity premium; 67,28% worked in Basic Support Unit (BSU); 83,95% had journey on SAMU Metropolitano of 31-40 hours per week; 52,47% had other employments. As for knowledge of rules of standard precautions, safety and occupational hazards, 99,38% knew what it was WRA; 62,96% gave incomplete answers; 74,07% knew the rules of prevent WRA; 46,67% acquired this knowledge in lectures; 53,09% knew Personal Protective Equipment (PPE); 71,60% gave incorrect answers about the importance of standard precautions; 45,06% never received an educational intervention on this issue; 89,51% said that educational interventions in the prevention of WRA are very important; 90,12% pointed out this as a very important issue in the workplace; 27,00% suggested guidance on the topic in the workplace; regarding the physical hazards, 34,57% considered noise as the most important; about chemical hazards, 78,40% chose the gases and smoke; for biological hazards, 48,77% reported contact with the blood; for mechanical hazards, 80,86% said that were transport accidents; about ergonomic risks, 40,12% say it is the tension/stress in the care of critically ill, psychiatric and aggressive patients; and there was an average of 4,5 to the feeling of safety in the workplace. Regarding the data on the WRAs occurred, 31,48% experienced at least one accident event; 72,55% did not notify it; 60,98% answered that there was no routine for notification; 56,86% were performing patient transportation; 49,02% were hurt in the Basic Support Unit/Rescue Unit (BSU/RH); 60,78% occurred during the day; 96,08% of professionals were in normal work schedule (24 hours on duty); 31,37% had contusion; 58.82% had damage to members/pelvic girdle; 43,14% had traffic accidents. About the evolution of the WRA, 62,75% did not have to take time away from work; 76,47% had no sequelae; 88,24% did not require rehabilitation; no professional had a change of occupation. And by means of univariate logistic regression, showed that the nurses and male sex were risk factors for the occurrence of WRA. We conclude that there were gaps in the knowledge of staff regarding WRA, emphasizing the need for continuing education in biosafety in the service.

Atendimento Pré-hospitalar Móvel. Mapeando Riscos e Prevenindo Erros

The attention with safety of the patients is important in the quality of the nursing and health care. In the pre-hospital care, such care is essential on site with the purpose of avoiding possible consequences to the individual, ensuring a fast and appropriate care, with improvement of the morbidity and reduction of the mortality. This medical attention is equally associated with the significant risks of adverse events and serious mistakes, which can be reduced with the awareness of the professionals, organization and quality management. It is a descriptive, transversal research, of quantitative approach, with the objective of identifying the risks for the safety of the patient during the mobile pre-hospital care under the view of the nurses, in a city of the Brazilian Northeast. The sample was formed by 23 nurses. The inclusion criteria: to have at least two years of experience and accept to participate on the research. The data collection was done in two steps, first photo collection, through the adapted method of photographic analysis, and the second with the application of questionnaire, divide in two parts: socio-professional data and digital photo punctuation instrument of the patient s safety. The majority of the nurses had an average working time in the mobile pre-hospital care of six years and six months, in the age group of 38 to 53 years old (69,56%) and with Lato sensu specialization (73,91%), being (29,41%) emergency and (29,41%) in intensive care. The (74%) have the Advance Cardiac Life Support (ACLS) and (100%) have the Pre-Hospital Trauma Life Support (PHTLS); (91, 30%) know the thematic safety of the patient. On the pictures it was observed a bigger variability of the categories (risks) where 44% of variance emerged on the first picture of the research. The pictures 4 and 9 with the average below 5 were classified as very insecure, while pictures 7 and 3 with an average above 7, very secure. On the results of risks observed for the patient s safety in the mobile pre-hospital care five categories emerged: organization and packaging of the equipment and materials, routines and specificities in the mobile pre-hospital care, risks on the management of medications, for traumas and infections. Starting from the analysis of these risks, it was proposed ten steps for the safety in the mobile pre-hospital care: 1- Identify the patient; 2- Safety related to prevention of infection; 3- Safety in the management of medications; 4- Safety and standardization of the packaging of equipment and materials; 5- Attention to the specificities of the mobile pre-hospital care; 6- Incentive and value the participation of the patient and family; 7- Promote the communication with the central of regulation; 8- Prevention of traumas and falls; 9- Protect the skin from additional injuries; 10- Understand the benefit of all the equipment in the ambulance. The multiple risks and their emerged combinations on the research indicate a variety of actions to be developed and stimulated, like the use of steps for the patient s safety in the mobile pre-hospital care which contributes with the aid and management of risks, reduction of mistakes, disabilities and death

Método de avaliação do gerenciamento de resíduos em canteiro de obras da construção civil : proposta baseada em empresas construtoras da cidade de Natal-RN

According to great concern between the developed industrial activities and resultant impacts over the environment, an association of several factors have occurred, procedures to the efficient management of the rotation between economical development and the environment have been improved. A research in field have been realized inside building sites of companies in order to provide knowledge about the implemented and accomplish actions according to the resolution from CONAMA nº307. Trough the interview among the representations of the companies and photographic survey in loco, such as, what makes the companies implement this management, reutilization and recycling, transport and disposition. The present study had as objective: analyze the insertion of the used tools to residuals management, proposing improvements, in a way that it can be easily identified during the procedures execution in the building sites of the building companies of the city of Natal/RN. To reach the goal, in the first place a revision of the pertinent literature was performed; there for, it can be seen the relation between residues management and environment sustainability, once it happens in a continued way it may prevent the waste and reduces the risk that the activities way bring to the employees, community and environment; once found the great difficult faced with regard to labors, material, equipment, project, planning, costumer s interference, furnisher. And still, it could be verified wich materials generate greater indexes of residues in the works and the main occurrences of waste and loss. However a greater transparency is needed coming from the high administration in the commitment with the continued actions, to make it so, there must be a cultural change inside the company. There for there will be a greater productivity and quality of the under taking such as costumer s satisfaction

Um estudo da aplicação do conceito de risco na conscientização e conhecimento de estudantes de ensino técnico sobre riscos de segurança e saúde ocupacional em laboratório de soldagem

This dissertation presents a discussion on the level of risk awareness of students who have welding practice in the laboratories at CEFET/PI, both in Teresina and Floriano. Its main goal is to investigate risk factors involving students, teachers and employees that work in these laboratories. It s an empirical survey, held among a certain amount of students from the course in Mechanic Technology. For data analysis, the concept of risk was compared to the students direct measure of perception. The main results suggest the students must be better informed, more risk aware and more competent, in order to avoid accidents. They also point to a strong need for a more formal and effective performance to assure full consciousness about the risks involving the welding practice.

Avaliação dos processos de seleção utilizados nos programas de fomento a inovação nas micro e pequenas empresas da fundação de amparo à pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte

Technological innovation promotes the generation of economic value by creating a new product, process or organizational management model, being classified as dynamic and multidimensional. Government intervention has the role of acting through government grant programs to foster the integration of innovative processes in small companies, due to the high costs and risks of development, strengthening the country`s economy in this phase. The distribution of this grant is determined by criteria, based especially in subjective judgments, which are based on the beliefs and perceptions about the technological opportunities and market actors involved in the process, being very difficult to measure the probability of success of the project under evaluation. This study aims to identify the most relevant selection criteria that must be inserted in grants programs at Rio Grande do Norte executed by Fundação de Pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte (FAPERN). Initially, there was a systematization of 18 countries, covering 41 programs in foreign countries and 29 in Brazil. Based on the data collected, we conducted one survey containing four programs of FAPERN (INOVA I, INOVA II , INOVA III and INOVA IV), covering 44 companies and analyzing their responses according to the Likert scale , obtaining the degree of importance given by the respondent to each of the criteria in the questionnaire . As a result, drew up a proposal for new criteria to be used in the next FAPERN´s grants, containing 13 new criteria. It is expected, therefore, to contribute to a better spending of public funds invested in companies subsidized in Brazil

Uma metodologia para modelagem e avaliação da dependabilidade de redes industriais sem fio

Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments

Superando os riscos da segurança baseada em perímetro - Uma abordagem com identificação federada através de certificados digitais A3/ICP-Brasil e SAML

The traditional perimeter-based approach for computer network security (the castle and the moat model) hinders the progress of enterprise systems and promotes, both in administrators and users, the delusion that systems are protected. To deal with the new range of threats, a new data-safety oriented paradigm, called de-perimeterisation , began to be studied in the last decade. One of the requirements for the implementation of the de-perimeterised model of security is the definition of a safe and effective mechanism for federated identity. This work seeks to fill this gap by presenting the specification, modelling and implementation of a mechanism for federated identity, based on the combination of SAML and X.509 digital certificates stored in smart-cards, following the A3 standard of ICP-Brasil (Brazilian official certificate authority and PKI)

Avaliação dos impactos ambientais gerados por uma industria cerâmica típica da Região do Seridó/RN

The present work deals with an evaluation of the environmental impacts arised from a typical ceramics industry located in the Seridó region of Rio Grande do Norte State. That region contains the largest State s producing basin of red ceramics. The district of Parelhas stands out as the largest producing nucleus. The studied company is located in the rural zone of Parelhas, it was selected as study object because it possesses a great part of the representative characteristics of the Region s ceramics park as a whole. Impacts produced at the implantation and operation phases of the Company had been evaluated, being this last phase subdivided in stages of the productive process. Among found adverse impacts, they are distinguished: losses in air quality, undesirable noises, microclimatic alterations, impoverishment of the ground, elimination of the vegetal covering, agricultural exodus, crisis in cattle agriculture and, superficial and underground water contamination, beyond risks ocupational diseases and industrial accidents. The Leopold s interactive matrix, that summarizes results of the work, was presented in form of 15 (fifteen) tables that display impacts classified in qualitative and quantitative way. Totally, 175 (one hundred and seventy-five) significant impacts produced by this Company had been identified, being 114 (one hundred and fourteen) negative, 38 (thirty-eight) positive and 23 (twenty-three) among mixed, indefinite and inert ones. In the work, before the evaluation of impacts properly said, it was constructed a diagnostic table of the ambient situation at a previous moment to implantation of the Company, elaborated on basis of inferences and historical researches. It was proposed still, mitigative steps for adverse impacts identified, as also elaborated a program to accompaniment and observing that the fulfilment of indicated mitigative steps guarantees. The final part of the work contemplates conclusions and suggestions that aim to influence positively the presented sight in terms of environmental management