Modelagem estocástica do índice de radiação ultravioleta na costa leste do nordeste do Brasil

The increase in ultraviolet radiation (UV) at surface, the high incidence of non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) in coast of Northeast of Brazil (NEB) and reduction of total ozone were the motivation for the present study. The overall objective was to identify and understand the variability of UV or Index Ultraviolet Radiation (UV Index) in the capitals of the east coast of the NEB and adjust stochastic models to time series of UV index aiming make predictions (interpolations) and forecasts / projections (extrapolations) followed by trend analysis. The methodology consisted of applying multivariate analysis (principal component analysis and cluster analysis), Predictive Mean Matching method for filling gaps in the data, autoregressive distributed lag (ADL) and Mann-Kendal. The modeling via the ADL consisted of parameter estimation, diagnostics, residuals analysis and evaluation of the quality of the predictions and forecasts via mean squared error and Pearson correlation coefficient. The research results indicated that the annual variability of UV in the capital of Rio Grande do Norte (Natal) has a feature in the months of September and October that consisting of a stabilization / reduction of UV index because of the greater annual concentration total ozone. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The increased amount of aerosol during this period contributes in lesser intensity for this event. The application of cluster analysis on the east coast of the NEB showed that this event also occurs in the capitals of Paraiba (João Pessoa) and Pernambuco (Recife). Extreme events of UV in NEB were analyzed from the city of Natal and were associated with absence of cloud cover and levels below the annual average of total ozone and did not occurring in the entire region because of the uneven spatial distribution of these variables. The ADL (4, 1) model, adjusted with data of the UV index and total ozone to period 2001-2012 made a the projection / extrapolation for the next 30 years (2013-2043) indicating in end of that period an increase to the UV index of one unit (approximately), case total ozone maintain the downward trend observed in study period

Análise aerodinâmica de perfis de asa para aeronaves experimentais tipo jn-1

The great importance in selecting the profile of an aircraft wing concerns the fact that its relevance in the performance thereof; influencing this displacement costs (fuel consumption, flight level, for example), the conditions of flight safety (response in critical condition) of the plane. The aim of this study was to examine the aerodynamic parameters that affect some types of wing profile, based on wind tunnel testing, to determine the aerodynamic efficiency of each one of them. We compared three types of planforms, chosen from considerations about the characteristics of the aircraft model. One of them has a common setup, and very common in laboratory classes to be a sort of standard aerodynamic, it is a symmetrical profile. The second profile shows a conFiguration of the concave-convex type, the third is also a concave-convex profile, but with different implementation of the second, and finally, the fourth airfoil profile has a plano-convex. Thus, three different categories are covered in profile, showing the main points of relevance to their employment. To perform the experiment used a wind tunnel-type open circuit, where we analyzed the pressure distribution across the surface of each profile. Possession of the drag polar of each wing profile can be, from the theoretical basis of this work, the aerodynamic characteristics relate to the expected performance of the experimental aircraft, thus creating a selection model with guaranteed performance aerodynamics. It is believed that the philosophy used in this dissertation research validates the results, resulting in an experimental alternative for reliable implementation of aerodynamic testing in models of planforms