Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Avaliação de impacto ambiental e gestão dos recursos natuarias no estuário Apodi Mossoró, nordeste do Brasil

The aim of this study is to investigate the eco-environmental vulnerability, its changes, and its causes to develop a management system for application of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment in the Apodi-Mossory estuary, Northeast Brazil. This analysis is focused on the interference of the landscape conditions, and its changes, due to the following factors: the oil and natural gas industry, tropical fruits industry, shrimp farms, marine salt industry, occupation of the sensitive areas; demand for land, vegetation degradation, siltation in rivers, severe flooding, sea level rise (SLR), coastal dynamics, low and flat topography, high ecological value and tourism in the region and the rapid growth of urbanization. Conventional and remote sensing data were analyzed using modeling techniques based on ArcGIS, ER-Mapper, ERDAS Imagine and ENVI software. Digital images were initially processed by Principal Component Analysis and transformation of the maximum fraction of noise, and then all bands were normalized to reduce errors caused by bands of different sizes. They were integrated in a Geographic Information System analysis to detect changes, to generate digital elevation models, geomorphic indices and other variables of the study area. A three band color combination of multispectral bands was used to monitor changes of land and vegetation cover from 1986 to 2009. This task also included the analysis of various secondary data, such as field data, socioeconomic data, environmental data and prospects growth. The main objective of this study was to improve our understanding of eco-environmental vulnerability and risk assessment; it´s causes basically show the intensity, its distribution and human-environment effect on the ecosystem, and identify the high and low sensitive areas and area of inundation due to future SLR, and the loss of land due to coastal erosion in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary in order to establish a strategy for sustainable land use. The developed model includes some basic factors such as geology, geomorphology, soils, land use / land cover, vegetation cover, slope, topography and hydrology. The numerical results indicate that 9.86% of total study area was under very high vulnerability, 29.12% high vulnerability, 52.90% moderate vulnerability and 2.23% were in the category of very low vulnerability. The analysis indicates that 216.1 km² and 362.8 km² area flooded on 1m and 10m in sea levels respectively. The sectors most affected were residential, industrial and recreational areas, agricultural land, and ecosystems of high environmental sensitivity. The results showed that changes in eco-environmental vulnerability have a significant impact on the sustainable development of the RN state, since the indicator is a function of sensitivity, exposure and status in relation to a level of damage. The model were presented as a tool to assist in indexing vulnerability in order to optimize actions and assess the implications of decisions makers and policies regarding the management of coastal and estuarine areas. In this context aspects such as population growth, degradation of vegetation, land use / land cover, amount and type of industrialization, SLR and government policies for environmental protection were considered the main factors that affect the eco-environmental changes over the last three decades in the Apodi-Mossoró estuary.

Aconselhamento em HIV/AIDS: ações e reflexões dos profissionais do Centro de Testagem e Aconselhamento (CTA)

The counseling on HIV/Aids consists in a prevention strategy that contributes to increase the diagnosis of HIV and start earlier the treatment. The counseling has as pillars the emotional and educational support, risks evaluation that aim at the adoption of safe practices and the individual s responsibility for his own health. To accomplish these results, it is necessary that health workers understand counseling as a unique educational moment that stimulates the user s critical-reflection when it comes to his role as an active subject in this process. This study aimed to analyze the counseling on HIV/Aids conducted by the professionals of the Testing and Counseling Center (CTA), based on the educational perspective of Paulo Freire . This is a descriptive qualitative study with a critical reflexive design based on the principles of Action-Science. All the professionals acting as counselors in the Joao Pessoa, PB CTA, eight in total, took part in the study. Data were collected during the month of March, 2011, through non participative observation and semi-structured interviews with a critical-reflexive focus, analyzed according to the tenets of the critical-reflexive methodology, and discussed taking into consideration the Paulo Freire s pedagogy and pertinent literature. It was observed that most of the professionals expressed the work philosophy of CTA as the diagnosis and prevention of the disease, associated with the utilization and demonstration of condoms. However, upon observation of their counseling sessions, these ideas were not converted in actions. Educational themes were not covered and the condom wasn t offered at any time. The counseling actions focused on the provision of information and filling out the paper forms which are necessary for attendance. The sessions were conducted with brief dialogues and little opportunity for the users to expose or complement their thoughts and needs. The professionals mentioned as facilitating conditions for counseling, the team interaction and physical structure. The difficulties focused on the users low cognition, the large demand for attendance, aspects related to the service organization, and the counselors absences and delays. After reflecting about the actions observed in the counseling, the majority of professionals admitted the need to modify their practice in the incorporation of educational principles for the achievement of a broader prevention, and seemed to be willing to work in this perspective. In conclusion, although the counselors show ideas consistent with the purposes of CTA, these ideas are limited when it comes to the understanding of the meaning of prevention in HIV/Aids. Taking into consideration that they express a certain comprehension and act differently during the counseling, they demonstrate a lack of bond between the theories in use and the proposed ones, in accordance with the contribution of the action-science theory. The counseling, as an educative practice, doesn t materialize in the counseling itself and the orientation for reflection is not given during the attendance. These findings suggest the need to include the process of reflection in the execution of the actions of counseling, so that these practices are guided by reflexive practice, aiming at transforming the way of thinking and acting into a more educational perspective toward a more democratic and holistic assistance.

Metodologia para implantação de um sistema de disposição de rejeitos em minério de ferro na região do semiárido: estudo de caso

Tailings dams are structures that aims to retain the solid waste and water from mining processes. Its analysis and planning begins with searching of location for deployment, step on which to bind all kinds of variables that directly or indirectly influence the work, such as geological, hydrological, tectonic, topographic, geotechnical, environmental, social characteristics, evaluation security risks, among others. Thus, this paper aims to present a study on the most appropriate and secure type of busbar to design a layout structure of iron ore tailings, taking into account all the above mentioned variables. The case study involves the assessment of sites for location of dams of tailings disposal beneficiation of iron mine to be built in Bonito, in the municipality of Jucurutu in Seridó Potiguar. For site selection among alternatives, various aspects of the current state of the art were considered, one that causes the least environmental impact, low cost investment, adding value to the product and especially the safety of the implanted structure mitigates the concern about induced earthquakes as a result of liquefaction wastes somatized by dams in the region, as the tilling of Mina Bonito is located practically in the hydraulic basin dam Armando Ribeiro in environmental protection (APA). The methodology compares induced by dams in the semiarid region with the characteristics of the waste disposal and sterile seismicity, taking into account the enhancement of liquefaction by the action of seismicity in the Mina Bonito region. With the fulcrum in the methodology, we indicated the best busbar type for disposal of tailings from iron ore or combination of them, to be designed and built in semiarid particularly for Mina Bonito. Also presents a number of possible uses for the tailings and in engineering activities, which may cause processing to the common good.

Avaliação do banco de dissertações e teses da associação brasileira de antropologia: uma análise cienciométrica

VITULLO, Nadia Aurora Vanti. Avaliação do banco de dissertações e teses da Associação Brasileira de Antropologia: uma análise cienciométrica. 2001. 143 f. Dissertaçao (Mestrado) - Curso de Mestrado em Biblioteconomia e Ciência da Informação, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Campinas, Campinas, 2001.

Avaliação do banco de dissertações e teses da associação brasileira de antropologia: uma análise cienciométrica

VITULLO, Nadia Aurora Vanti. Avaliação do banco de dissertações e teses da Associação Brasileira de Antropologia: uma análise cienciométrica. 2001. 143 f. Dissertaçao (Mestrado) - Curso de Mestrado em Biblioteconomia e Ciência da Informação, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Campinas, Campinas, 2001.

Avaliação do potencial genotóxico e citotóxico associado a queima artesanal da castanha de caju no Município de João Câmara

The Brazil is the third largest producer of cashew nuts in the world. Despite the social and economic importance of the cashew nut, its production is still carried out artisanally. One of the main problems encountered in the cashew production chain are the conditions under which the roasting of the nut occurs to obtain the kernel from the shell. In the present study was conducted a biomonitoring of the genotoxic and cytotoxicity effects associated with the elements from the cashew nut roasting in João Câmara - RN, semi-arid region of Brazil. To assess the genotoxic was used the bioassay of micronucleus (MN) in Tradescantia pallida. In addition, it was performed a comparative between the Tradescantia pallida and KU-20 and other biomarkers of DNA damage, such as the nucleoplasmic bridges (NBP) and nuclear fragments (NF) were quantified. The levels of particulate matter (PM1.0, PM2.5, PM10) and black carbon (BC) were also measured and the inorganic chemical composition of the PM2.5 collected was determined using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry analysis and the assessment of the cytotoxicity by MTT assay and exclusion method by trypan blue. . For this purpose, were chosen: the Amarelão community where the roasting occurs and the Santa Luzia farm an area without influence of this process. The mean value of PM2.5 (Jan 2124.2 μg/m3; May 1022.2 μg/m3; Sep 1291.9 μg/m3) and BC (Jan 363.6 μg/m3; May 70.0 μg/m3; Sep 69.4 μg/m3) as well as the concentration of the elements Al, Si, P, S, Cl, K, Ca, Ti, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Se, Br and Pb obtained at Amarelão was significantly higher than at Santa Luzia farm. The genotoxicity tests with T. pallida indicated a significant increase in the number of MN, NBP and NF and it was found a negative correlation between the frequency of these biomarkers and the rainfall. The concentrations of 200 μg/mL and 400 μg/mL of PM2.5 were cytotoxic to MRC-5 cells. All together, the results indicated genotoxicity and citotoxicity for the community of Amarelão, and the high rates of PM2.5 considered a potential contributor to this effect, mainly by the high presence of transition metals, especially Fe, Ni, Cu, Cr and Zn, these elements have the potential to cause DNA damage. Other nuclear alterations, such as the NPBs and NFs may be used as effective biomarkers of DNA damage in tetrads of Tradescantia pallida. The results of this study enabled the identification of a serious occupational problem. Accordingly, preventative measures and better practices should be adopted to improve both the activity and the quality of life of the population. These measures are of fundamental importance for the sustainable development of this activity.

Cinemática de partículas em fluidos de viscosidade variável com o tempo e sua aplicação na construção de poços de petróleo: avaliação durante paradas operacionais

The new oil reservoirs discoveries in onshore and ultra deep water offshore fields and complex trajectories require the optimization of procedures to reduce the stops operation during the well drilling, especially because the platforms and equipment high cost, and risks which are inherent to the operation. Among the most important aspects stands out the drilling fluids project and their behavior against different situations that may occur during the process. By means of sedimentation experiments, a correlation has been validated to determe the sedimentation particles velocity in variable viscosity fluids over time, applying the correction due to effective viscosity that is a shear rate and time function. The viscosity evolution over time was obtained by carrying out rheologic tests using a fixed shear rate, small enough to not interfere in the fluid gelling process. With the sedimentation particles velocity and the fluid viscosity over time equations an iterative procedure was proposed to determine the particles displacement over time. These equations were implemented in a case study to simulate the cuttings sedimentation generated in the oil well drilling during stops operation, especially in the connections and tripping, allowing the drilling fluid project in order to maintain the cuttings in suspension, avoiding risks, such as stuck pipe and in more drastic conditions, the loss of the well

Avaliação do desenvolvimento neuropsicomotor em crianças na rede básica de saúde utilizando o teste de Denver II: identificação de fatores de risco materno

Alterations in the neuropsychomotor development of children are not rare and can manifest themselves with varying intensity at different stages of their development. In this context, maternal risk factors may contribute to the appearance of these alterations. A number of studies have reported that neuropsychomotor development diagnosis is not an easy task, especially in the basic public health network. Diagnosis requires effective, low-cost, and easy - to-apply procedures. The Denver Developmental Screening Test, first published in 1967, is currently used in several countries. It has been revised and renamed as the Denver II Test and meets the aforementioned criteria. Accordingly, the aim of this study was to apply the Denver II Test in order to verify the prevalence of suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in children between the ages of 0 and 12 months and correlate it with the following maternal risk factors: family income, schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during pregnancy, gestational age, gestational problems, type of delivery and the desire to have children. For data collection, performed during the first 6 months of 2004, a clinical assessment was made of 398 children selected by pediatricians and the nursing team of each public health unit. Later, the parents or guardians were asked to complete a structured questionnaire to determine possible risk indicators of neuropsychomotor development delay. Finally the Denver II Developmental Screening Test (DDST) was applied. The data were analyzed together, using Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS) software, version 6.1. The confidence interval was set at 95%. The Denver II Test yielded normal and questionable results. This suggests compromised neuropsychomotor development in the children examined and deserves further investigation. The correlation of the results with preestablished maternal risk variables (family income, mother s schooling, age at pregnancy, drug use during the pregnancy and gestational age) was strongly significant. The other maternal risk variables (gestational problems, type of delivery and desire to have children) were not significant. Using an adjusted logistic regression model, we obtained the estimate of the greater likelihood of a child having suspected neuropsychomotor development delay: a mother with _75 4 years of schooling, chronological age less than 20 years and a drug user during pregnancy. This study produced two manuscripts, one published in Acta Cirúrgica Brasileira , in which an analysis was performed of children with suspected neuropsychomotor development delay in the city of Natal, Brazil. The other paper (to be published) analyzed the magnitude of the independent variable maternal schooling associated to neuropsychomotor development delay, every 3 months during the first twelve months of life of the children selected.. The results of the present study reinforce the multifactorial characteristic of development and the cumulative effect of maternal risk factors, and show the need for a regional policy that promotes low-cost programs for the community, involving children at risk of neuropsychomotor development delay. Moreover, they suggest the need for better qualified health professionals in terms of monitoring child development. This was an inter- and multidisciplinary study with the integrated participation of doctors, nurses, nursing assistants and professionals from other areas, such as statisticians and information technology professionals, who met all the requirements of the Postgraduate Program in Health Sciences of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte

Protocolo de avaliação do cuidado de enfermagem e da segurança do paciente em unidades de terapia intensiva

The reports of adverse events date from 1990 up to the present day. Conceptually, these adverse events are unintentional injuries unrelated to the underlying disease, causing measurable lesions in patients, extending the period of hospitalization, or leading to death. These issues require discussions with regard to patient safety, improved quality of service, and preventing medical errors. In the Intensive Care Units, this concern is greater because these are sectors of intensive care to individuals with hemodynamic changes and imminent risk of death. Therefore, it is essential to conduct evaluation processes to investigate aspects of quality of nursing care and patient safety in these spaces. For that reason, we aimed to propose the Evaluation protocol of nursing care and patient safety in Intensive Care Units. For its achievement, we needed to: 1) analyze the evolution of the patient safety concept used in scientific productions, under Rodgers evolutionary concept; 2) identify the necessary items to build the evaluation protocol of nursing care and patient safety in the Intensive Care Unit, from the available evidence in literature; 3) construct an instrument for content validation of the evaluation protocol of nursing care and patient safety in the Intensive Care Unit; and 4) describe and evaluate the appropriateness of the content for an evaluation protocol of nursing care and patient safety in the Intensive Care Unit. This is a methodological study for the content validation of the abovementioned protocol. To meet the first three specific objectives, we used the integrative literature review in Theses Database of the Coordination for the Improvement of Higher Education Personnel and the portal of the Collaborating Centre for Quality of Care and Patient Safety. The fourth specific objective happened through the participation of judges, located from the Lattes curricula, in the content validation process developed in two stages: Delphi 1 and Delphi 2. As instrument, we used the electronic form of Google docs. We present in tables the answers from the evaluation instruments by Delphi consensus and Content Validity Index (CVI) of the entire protocol. We summarized the results in articles entitled Analysis of the patient safety concept: Rodgers evolutionary concept ; Scientific evidence regarding patient safety in the Intensive Care Unit ; Technological device for the content validation process: experience report ; and Evaluation protocol of nursing care and patient safety in Intensive Care Units. The Embodied Opinion of the Research Ethics Committee of the Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte, No. 461,246, under CAAE 19586813.2.0000.5537, approved the study. Thus, we conclude the protocol valid in its content, constituting an important tool for evaluating the quality of nursing care and patient safety in Intensive Care Units

Método de avaliação do gerenciamento de resíduos em canteiro de obras da construção civil : proposta baseada em empresas construtoras da cidade de Natal-RN

According to great concern between the developed industrial activities and resultant impacts over the environment, an association of several factors have occurred, procedures to the efficient management of the rotation between economical development and the environment have been improved. A research in field have been realized inside building sites of companies in order to provide knowledge about the implemented and accomplish actions according to the resolution from CONAMA nº307. Trough the interview among the representations of the companies and photographic survey in loco, such as, what makes the companies implement this management, reutilization and recycling, transport and disposition. The present study had as objective: analyze the insertion of the used tools to residuals management, proposing improvements, in a way that it can be easily identified during the procedures execution in the building sites of the building companies of the city of Natal/RN. To reach the goal, in the first place a revision of the pertinent literature was performed; there for, it can be seen the relation between residues management and environment sustainability, once it happens in a continued way it may prevent the waste and reduces the risk that the activities way bring to the employees, community and environment; once found the great difficult faced with regard to labors, material, equipment, project, planning, costumer s interference, furnisher. And still, it could be verified wich materials generate greater indexes of residues in the works and the main occurrences of waste and loss. However a greater transparency is needed coming from the high administration in the commitment with the continued actions, to make it so, there must be a cultural change inside the company. There for there will be a greater productivity and quality of the under taking such as costumer s satisfaction

Avaliação dos processos de seleção utilizados nos programas de fomento a inovação nas micro e pequenas empresas da fundação de amparo à pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte

Technological innovation promotes the generation of economic value by creating a new product, process or organizational management model, being classified as dynamic and multidimensional. Government intervention has the role of acting through government grant programs to foster the integration of innovative processes in small companies, due to the high costs and risks of development, strengthening the country`s economy in this phase. The distribution of this grant is determined by criteria, based especially in subjective judgments, which are based on the beliefs and perceptions about the technological opportunities and market actors involved in the process, being very difficult to measure the probability of success of the project under evaluation. This study aims to identify the most relevant selection criteria that must be inserted in grants programs at Rio Grande do Norte executed by Fundação de Pesquisa do Rio Grande do Norte (FAPERN). Initially, there was a systematization of 18 countries, covering 41 programs in foreign countries and 29 in Brazil. Based on the data collected, we conducted one survey containing four programs of FAPERN (INOVA I, INOVA II , INOVA III and INOVA IV), covering 44 companies and analyzing their responses according to the Likert scale , obtaining the degree of importance given by the respondent to each of the criteria in the questionnaire . As a result, drew up a proposal for new criteria to be used in the next FAPERN´s grants, containing 13 new criteria. It is expected, therefore, to contribute to a better spending of public funds invested in companies subsidized in Brazil

Uma metodologia para modelagem e avaliação da dependabilidade de redes industriais sem fio

Ensuring the dependability requirements is essential for the industrial applications since faults may cause failures whose consequences result in economic losses, environmental damage or hurting people. Therefore, faced from the relevance of topic, this thesis proposes a methodology for the dependability evaluation of industrial wireless networks (WirelessHART, ISA100.11a, WIA-PA) on early design phase. However, the proposal can be easily adapted to maintenance and expansion stages of network. The proposal uses graph theory and fault tree formalism to create automatically an analytical model from a given wireless industrial network topology, where the dependability can be evaluated. The evaluation metrics supported are the reliability, availability, MTTF (mean time to failure), importance measures of devices, redundancy aspects and common cause failures. It must be emphasized that the proposal is independent of any tool to evaluate quantitatively the target metrics. However, due to validation issues it was used a tool widely accepted on academy for this purpose (SHARPE). In addition, an algorithm to generate the minimal cut sets, originally applied on graph theory, was adapted to fault tree formalism to guarantee the scalability of methodology in wireless industrial network environments (< 100 devices). Finally, the proposed methodology was validate from typical scenarios found in industrial environments, as star, line, cluster and mesh topologies. It was also evaluated scenarios with common cause failures and best practices to guide the design of an industrial wireless network. For guarantee scalability requirements, it was analyzed the performance of methodology in different scenarios where the results shown the applicability of proposal for networks typically found in industrial environments

Avaliação dos impactos ambientais gerados por uma industria cerâmica típica da Região do Seridó/RN

The present work deals with an evaluation of the environmental impacts arised from a typical ceramics industry located in the Seridó region of Rio Grande do Norte State. That region contains the largest State s producing basin of red ceramics. The district of Parelhas stands out as the largest producing nucleus. The studied company is located in the rural zone of Parelhas, it was selected as study object because it possesses a great part of the representative characteristics of the Region s ceramics park as a whole. Impacts produced at the implantation and operation phases of the Company had been evaluated, being this last phase subdivided in stages of the productive process. Among found adverse impacts, they are distinguished: losses in air quality, undesirable noises, microclimatic alterations, impoverishment of the ground, elimination of the vegetal covering, agricultural exodus, crisis in cattle agriculture and, superficial and underground water contamination, beyond risks ocupational diseases and industrial accidents. The Leopold s interactive matrix, that summarizes results of the work, was presented in form of 15 (fifteen) tables that display impacts classified in qualitative and quantitative way. Totally, 175 (one hundred and seventy-five) significant impacts produced by this Company had been identified, being 114 (one hundred and fourteen) negative, 38 (thirty-eight) positive and 23 (twenty-three) among mixed, indefinite and inert ones. In the work, before the evaluation of impacts properly said, it was constructed a diagnostic table of the ambient situation at a previous moment to implantation of the Company, elaborated on basis of inferences and historical researches. It was proposed still, mitigative steps for adverse impacts identified, as also elaborated a program to accompaniment and observing that the fulfilment of indicated mitigative steps guarantees. The final part of the work contemplates conclusions and suggestions that aim to influence positively the presented sight in terms of environmental management

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River