Predição em modelos de tempo de falha acelerado com efeito aleatório para avaliação de riscos de falha em poços petrolíferos

We considered prediction techniques based on models of accelerated failure time with random e ects for correlated survival data. Besides the bayesian approach through empirical Bayes estimator, we also discussed about the use of a classical predictor, the Empirical Best Linear Unbiased Predictor (EBLUP). In order to illustrate the use of these predictors, we considered applications on a real data set coming from the oil industry. More speci - cally, the data set involves the mean time between failure of petroleum-well equipments of the Bacia Potiguar. The goal of this study is to predict the risk/probability of failure in order to help a preventive maintenance program. The results show that both methods are suitable to predict future failures, providing good decisions in relation to employment and economy of resources for preventive maintenance.

Argamassas do grupo escolar Augusto Severo/RN: caracterização e incidência de manifestações patológicas

The search for cultural heritage preservation should be a constant, in order to minimize the lost of historical and cultural identity of a country. As part of this cultural heritage, highlights the importance of historical buildings. For the principles of restoration are met its important to know the state of conservation and the existing materials. Given the above, this work aims to study the pathological manifestations of the mortar coating from the Grupo Escolar Augusto Severo. For this, was conducted historical survey of the building, on-site visits with visual observation, collecting samples of mortar coating and characterization through visual and laboratory analysis, XRF, XRD, TG/DTG, OM and SEM-EDS. From the observations, pathological manifestations were found as: cracks, detachment of the coating, dirt, use of inappropriate material basis of cement, efflorescence, mold and mildew and also incompatible material base of cement. It was found that the pathological manifestations were intensified due to lack of coverage in some spots and especially the abandonment of the building, that many years does not have restoration or any other type of preventive and corrective maintenance. The results of laboratory tests indicated that the mortars studied are based on lime, with calcitic nature, and siliceous aggregate, with the presence of clay in two samples. From the samples collected, two are composed of lime, sand and clay and two by lime and sand. In this regard, it is important to conduct periodic inspections and maintenance, as well as carrying out restoration with use of material compatible with the original

Desenvolvimento de um protocolo de comunicação para automação de subestações móveis via satélite

One of the most important decisions to turn a substation automatic and no attended it relates to the communication media between this substation and Operation Center. Generally energy companies uses radio or optic fiber, depending of distances and infrastructure of each situation. This rule applies to common substations. Mobile substations are a particular case, therefore they are conceived for use at provisional situations, emergencies, preventive or corrective maintenance. Thus the telecommunication solution used at common substations are not applied so easily to mobile substations, due absence of infrastructure (media) or difficulty to insert the mobile substation data in existing automation network not long. The ideal media must supply covering in a great geographic area to satisfy presented requirements. The implantation costs of this big infrastructure are expensive, however a existing operator may be used. Two services that fulfill that requirements are satellite and cellular telephony. This work presents a solution for automation of mobile substations through satellite. It was successfully implanted at a brazilian electric energy concessionaire named COSERN. The operation became transparent to operators. Other gotten benefits had been operational security, quality in the supply of electric energy and costs reduction. The project presented is a new solution, designed to substations and general applications where few data should be transmitted, but there is difficulties in relation to the media. Despite the satellite having been used, the same resulted can be gotten using celullar telephony, through Short Messages or packet networks as GPRS or EDGE.