Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Indicador de vulnerabilidade agropecuária a extremos climáticos para o nordeste do Brasil

The effects of climate change on human societies have become the focus of many researchers for their research. Understanding weather patterns (circulation of the atmosphere, precipitation, temperature) is essences for predicting extreme weather, but analyze how these extreme events act in our society and look for ways to reduce the impact caused by these events is the great challenge. Using a concept very in the humanities and social sciences to understand these impacts and the adaptation of the society's vulnerability. The objective of this work is to develop and apply a methodology for evaluating fining scale and quantify the vulnerability of the Brazilian Northeast to climatic extremes, developing a methodology that combines aspects of vulnerability to drought, as well as socioeconomic and climatic indicators used to assess exposure, ability to adaptation and the sensitivity of geographical microregions of the region. The assessment of the susceptibility or degree of exposure to risk is the regional using the SPI (Standardized Precipitation Index) by the degree of magnitude dried (MD), the rate of precipitation such as PCD (Precipitation Concentration Degree) and PCP (Precipitation Period Concentration) helped characterize and regional climatology, these indices showed satisfactory results in the pilot study of Rio Grande do Norte to assess the degree of exposure to drought. Regarding sensitivity agricultural / livestock multivariate statistical technique to factor analysis showed acceptable results for the proposed model using data for the period 1990-1999 (P1). The application of the analysis of vulnerability considering the adaptive capacity, as the adaptive disability have almost similar results with much of the region's vulnerability to extreme south of Bahia state as a part of the semiarid region has a degree of vulnerability among moderate and mean

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Modelagem e previsão da perda de injetividade em poços canhoneados

Waterflooding is a technique largely applied in the oil industry. The injected water displaces oil to the producer wells and avoid reservoir pressure decline. However, suspended particles in the injected water may cause plugging of pore throats causing formation damage (permeability reduction) and injectivity decline during waterflooding. When injectivity decline occurs it is necessary to increase the injection pressure in order to maintain water flow injection. Therefore, a reliable prediction of injectivity decline is essential in waterflooding projects. In this dissertation, a simulator based on the traditional porous medium filtration model (including deep bed filtration and external filter cake formation) was developed and applied to predict injectivity decline in perforated wells (this prediction was made from history data). Experimental modeling and injectivity decline in open-hole wells is also discussed. The injectivity of modeling showed good agreement with field data, which can be used to support plan stimulation injection wells

Um Modelo híbrido para previsão de curvas de produção de petróleo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Produção, acúmulo e decomposição da serrapilhadeira e repartição da precipitação pluviométrica por espécies da caatinga

This study aimed to establish patterns of dynamics of litter and redistribution of rainfall of Caatinga vegetation. Sampling was done monthly for twenty three months in four areas: degraded, successional primary stage, secondary stage and late stage. We installed 72 collectors of 1.0 mx 1.0 m, with nylon fabric background in three areas. Litter deposited was fractionated into leaves, twigs, reproductive structures and miscellaneous, dried and weighed. To assess the stock of accumulated litter we used metal frame with dimensions of 0.5 mx 0.5 m, thrown randomly and collected monthly, taken to the laboratory for oven drying and weighed. To evaluate the decomposition, 40g of litter were placed in nylon bags (litterbags) mesh 1 mm ², dimensions 20.0 x 20.0 cm, being distributed on the soil surface and removed monthly, cleaned, dried and weighed. To evaluate the contribution of rainfall we used interceptometers installed 1.0 m above the ground surface, distributed under the canopy of six species of the caatinga, which evaluated the stemflow through collecting system installed around the stems of these species. The deposition of litter in the primary stage was 2.631,26 kg ha-1; 3.144,89 kg ha-1 in the secondary stage; 3.144,89 kg ha-1 in the late stage. The fraction of leaves was the largest contributor to the formation of litter in three stages. The degraded area showed greater accumulation of litter and decomposition has been sluggish during the dry period. We conclude that occurred greater litterfall in later stages. The late successional stage showed faster decomposition of litter, the evidence that is a better use of litter in nutrient cycling processes and incorporation of organic matter to the soil. The time required to decompose 50 % of the litter in the later stages of succession was lower indicating greater speed of release and reuse of nutrients by the vegetation. The specie jurema preta with less leaf area and consists of leaflets, showed greater internal precipitation in rain events of greater magnitude. The stemflow was not influenced by DAP and basal area. The water lost by trapping represented the largest proportion of total rainfall in all species studied

Previsão do módulo de elasticidade transversal de compósitos unidirecionais através de redes neurais mistas

The aim of this study is to create an artificial neural network (ANN) capable of modeling the transverse elasticity modulus (E2) of unidirectional composites. To that end, we used a dataset divided into two parts, one for training and the other for ANN testing. Three types of architectures from different networks were developed, one with only two inputs, one with three inputs and the third with mixed architecture combining an ANN with a model developed by Halpin-Tsai. After algorithm training, the results demonstrate that the use of ANNs is quite promising, given that when they were compared with those of the Halpín-Tsai mathematical model, higher correlation coefficient values and lower root mean square values were observed

Variação da qualidade da água de chuva no início da precipitação

One of the most evident and actual concern, not only in the scientific means, but also of the public knowledge in general, is the lack problem of the potable water, that come increasing more each time, motivated mainly for the po llution of the sources, the bad use of the water and the increase of the population. In such a way, the necessity of looking for new water sources and the development of techniques to use sources minus explored is becoming even more important and urgent. T he rainwater comes being used since a long time like a supplying source, but, due the few knowledge of its characteristics, the generated preconception and the discrimination around its consumption and to the bad use of the technique of collection and stor age, it comes being little used, wasting consequently a significant parcel of this source. Trying to develop the knowing of some characteristics of the rainwater, the present work looks for to define the curve of variation of the quality of the rainwater i n three points with distinct characteristics of the city of Natal -RN, in the course of the precipitation, in some situations of time and space. For describe the curve of variation of the water s quality, some variables must be analyzed, and to be identifie d when they modify themselves in the endurance of rain, showing in which moment the purification of the water is more or less quickly. The pH, the Turbidity and the Electric Conductivity can be related with a big part of the physicist -chemistries variables found in the water and, like its analyses don't spend any material, they have easy access and measurement. The present work analyzes the curves of decline of these three variables, in three points with distinct characteristics in the city of Natal -RN, being these points: one next to the sea, another one in region with great buildings concentration and the last point in a less polluted area. For the studied region, it was during the five first millimeters of rain that occurs the biggest reduction of the exi sting impurities in the atmosphere, mainly between the first and the second millimeter, and after the five first millimeters the values of the variables stabilize. With exception of the University Campus, where initially the rainwater already has very good quality, the values of Turbidity and Electric Conductivity suffer a brusque reduction after the first millimeter of rain

Análise da precipitação no semi-árido potiguar

The semiarid rainfall regime is northeastern Brazil is highly variable. Climate processes associated with rainfall are complex and their effects may represent extreme situations of drought or floods, which can have adverse effects on society and the environment. The regional economy has a significant agricultural component, which is strongly influenced by weather conditions. Maximum precipitation analysis is traditionally performed using the intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) probabilistic approach. Results from such analysis are typically used in engineering projects involving hydraulic structures such as drainage network systems and road structures. On the other hand, precipitation data analysis may require the adoption of some kind of event identification criteria. The minimum inter-event duration (IMEE) is one of the most used criteria. This study aims to analyze the effect of the IMEE on the obtained rain event properties. For this purpose, a nine-year precipitation time series (2002- 2011) was used. This data was obtained from an automatic raingauge station, installed in an environmentally protected area, Ecological Seridó Station. The results showed that adopted IMEE values has an important effect on the number of events, duration, event height, mean rainfall rate and mean inter-event duration. Furthermore, a higher occurrence of extreme events was observed for small IMEE values. Most events showed average rainfall intensity higher than 2 mm.h-1 regardless of IMEE. The storm coefficient of advance was, in most cases, within the first quartile of the event, regardless of the IMEE value. Time series analysis using partial time series made it possible to adjust the IDF equations to local characteristics

Identificação de áreas com precipitação pluvial homogênea no Estado do Rio Grande do Norte

O estudo da variabilidade da precipitação é importante para o planejamento das atividades econômicas, possibilitando o uso mais eficiente e racional dos recursos hídricos. Dessa forma, o objetivo desta pesquisa é caracterizar o estado do Rio Grande do Norte com relação à variabilidade temporal da precipitação, agrupá-lo em regiões homogêneas e comparar diferentes técnicas de agrupamento. Para o estudo da variabilidade pluvial foram utilizados os índices: Grau de Concentração de Precipitação (PCD), que representa o grau em que a precipitação é distribuída ao longo do ano; e o Período de Concentração de Precipitação (PCP), que reflete o período no qual a precipitação está mais concentrada. Para a realização dos agrupamentos foram escolhidas as variáveis: PCD, PCP, médias da precipitações anuais e médias das precipitações mensais. Posteriormente, foi aplicada a análise de agrupamento para obter grupos com características similares. Os resultados mostraram que as precipitações são melhor distribuídas na região leste do estado, neste caso, os meses mais chuvosos são de maio a agosto. Os municípios localizados nessa área possuem dois picos de chuvas, devido à atuação de dois sistemas: Perturbações Ondulatórias dos Alísios (POA s) e Zona de Convergência Intertropical (ZCIT). Nas regiões localizadas a oeste os meses que possuem maior concentração de chuvas são março e abril, neste caso temos apenas um pico de precipitação, devido a atuação da ZCIT. A identificação de áreas homogêneas favorece o planejamento adequado de acordo com as características de cada grupo formado e o RN pode foi dividido em 4 (quatro) regiões homogêneas. As técnicas de agrupamento utilizadas apresentaram resultados semelhantes, porém, sugere-se o uso de mais de uma técnica para que se possa analisar qual delas reflete melhor a realidade local. O estudo da variabilidade de precipitação, através dos índices estudados e do agrupamento realizado, são ferramentas adequadas ao planejamento ambiental e econômico

Alterações dos parâmetros climáticos no município de Apodi-RN, antes e após a construção da barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, e formação do lago

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal analisar as mudanças ocorridas no clima local onde o município de Apodi/RN está inserido, em virtude da construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi. Foram utilizadas para o tratamento dos dados climáticos precipitação pluviométrica, umidade relativa do ar e temperatura técnicas estatísticas como Desvio Padrão, Teste T, Coeficiente de Variação e Média aritmética, além do modelo matemático. Para o balanço hídrico foi aplicado o método de Thornthwait (1948), considerando dois períodos em análise: o anterior e posterior a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, respectivamente 1995 e 2005. os resultados obtidos permitiram inferir que a hipótese inicial levantada se confirma, ou seja, a construção da Barragem Santa Cruz do Apodi, está influenciando diretamente numa alteração no que concerne à condição atmosférica local, especialmente no parâmetro umidade relativa do ar. Quanto ao balanço hídrico, observou-se a predominância do déficit hídrico especialmente entre os meses de junho a janeiro, período de estiagem; um excedente ocorrente entre os meses de maio e junho, conseqüente do período chuvoso; e uma reposição hídrica antecedendo e sucedendo este período, chuvoso, ou seja, compreendendo os meses de fevereiro a junho. Todas as considerações e análises poderão contribuir para o planejamento de abastecimento d´água, a irrigação, auxílio na previsão de enchentes e estiagens, bem como o manejo do uso da água subterrânea