61 resultados para Normais climáticas
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior
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The Brazilian Northeast is the most vulnerable region to climatic variability risks. For the Brazilian semi-arid is expected a reduction in the overall rates of precipitation and an increase in the number of dry days. These changes predicted by the IPCC (2007) will intensify the rainfall and droughts period that could promote the dominance of cyanobacteria, thus affecting the water quality of reservoirs, that are most used for water supply, in the semi-arid. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of increasing temperature combined with nutrient enrichment on the functional structure of the phytoplankton community of a mesotrophic reservoir in the semi-arid, in the worst case scenario of climate change predicted by the IPCC (2007). Two experiments were performed, one in a rainy season and another in the dry season. In the water sampled, nutrients (nitrate and orthophosphate) were added in different concentrations. The microcosms were submitted to two different temperatures, five-year average of air temperature in the reservoir (control) and 4°C above the control temperature (warming). The results of this study showed that warming and nutrient enrichment benefited mainly the functional groups of cyanobacteria. During the rainy season it was verified the increasing biomass of small functional groups of unicellular and opportunists algae such as F (colonial green algae with mucilage) and X1 (nanoplanktonic algae of eutrophic lake systems). It was also observed an increasing in total biomass, in the richness and diversity of the community. In the dry season experiment there was a greater contribution in the relative biomass of filamentous algae, with a replacement of the group S1 (non-filamentous cyanobacteria with heterocytes) for H1 (filamentous cyanobacteria with heterocytes) in nutrient- enriched treatments. Moreover, there was also loss in total biomass, species richness and diversity of the community. The effects of temperature and nutrients manipulation on phytoplankton community of reservoir Ministro João Alves provoked changes in species richness, the diversity of the community and its functional composition, being the dry period which showed the highest susceptibility to the increase in the contribution of potentially toxic cyanobacteria with heterocytes
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The interaction between land and water, resulting from dynamic agents, such as wind, waves and tides, characterizes the coastal zone as a dynamic environment that is constantly disturbed and that may alter the balance of natural and man-made environment. Such modifications may be intensified when considering the climate change. This environment is highly attractive for the development of economic activities and urbanization, current scenario of the city of Natal. Weighing the economic importance for the state and the physical environment in which the capital of Rio Grande do Norte is inserted, this study aims to identify and analyze vulnerabilities and impacts caused by the rising sea level in the municipality. To that end, we defined a coastline, delimited areas susceptible to flooding and presented some flood scenarios. This way we could identify and analyze the impacts of each flood scenario in its respective section. Finally, it appears that the coastal zone in which Natal is inserted is a fragile area that requires actions aimed at mitigating vulnerabilities and facing the problem that caused the rise in the mean sea level (MSL), and mitigating the presented vulnerability framework; it is necessary to implement actions that effectively contribute to the protection and adaptation of the most fragile areas
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In recent years, much has been discussed about global climate changes (GCCs), popularly known as global warming. The scientific evidences point out to the influence of human actions for its drastic intensification. Therefore, studies of the psychological aspects involved become relevant. This study aimed at the investigation of the views of adolescents concerning GCCs, and the possible relations between those views and their pro-ecological commitment. Such commitment is measured by willingness for engagement in pro-environmental behaviors; environmentalism attitudes, like ecocentric and anthropocentric; consideration of future consequences; and ecological worldviews. Participants were 348 adolescents who answered a questionnaire containing questions about socio-demographic data, open questions about the practice of environmental care, and about GCCs, and the scales of Ecocentric and Anthropocentric Environmentalism, the Consideration of Future Consequences and the Ecological Worldviews assessment scale. From the inter-relationships between variables, procedures carried out by means of descriptive and correlacional statistics, it was observed that 55% of teenagers said that they did not engage in actions of environmental care, which was associated with apathyanthropocentric, immediatism, and individualism. The consideration of future consequences joined the practice of environmental care, corroborating evidence from the literature. It was evident that views concerning GCCs were superficial; adolescents perceive it as a generic environmental problem, and are confused with other problems such as pollution. This study found no association between views about GCCs and the indicators of pro-ecological commitment, perhaps due to the conceptual confusion about the subject. However, the lack of environmental care actions and other indicators of non-commitment (apathy-anthropocentric, individualism and immediatism) were associated with conceptually poor or incomplete responses (with no indication of cause, consequence or responsibility for the problem), demonstrating diminished knowledge and the failure to consider these issues
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At the semiarid regions of developing countries the rural population has always been vulnerable to the climatic variations e its consequences. The effects of the semiarid climate, together with other biophysics, social and political-economic factors, impair the agricultural production, generating a situation of food insecurity and poverty in the rural areas. With the occurrence of climate change, natural resources of the semiarid regions can became scarcer, what would directly affect the agricultural production and those who depend on it. Therefore, the present study sought to study one of the most susceptible areas to the effects of the semiarid climate and desertification of Rio Grande do Norte, the potiguar s Serido. The study aimed to analyze the socioeconomic and environmental factors that put farmers in a position of vulnerability to the effects of climate; assess their perceptions about climate variations that have already occurred and their knowledge about climate change and global warming, also to identify which adaptation strategies to climate they have adopted at the rural establishment. The survey was conducted in 29 communities of four counties of the potiguar s Serido Caico, Parelhas, Lagoa Nova and Acari. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with local leaders and 241 questionnaires were applied with the family farmers. It was found that in addition to environmental factors such as the scarcity of water resources and climatic conditions, other factors such as the environmental degradation, the small size of the properties, the lack of technical assistance and financial resources and also the low education levels reduce the resilience capacity of family farming to the effects of the Semiarid climate. With the occurrence of climate change, the challenges for family farming at Serido will intensify. If farmers cannot adapt, the impacts may preclude this category of agricultural production causing serious harm to food security and further increasing the vulnerability situation of these populations. Although the farmers perceived changes in climate, the lack resources and information appears as the main reasons preventing the adoption of adaptation strategies. The lack of knowledge about climate change and global warming and the impacts that these phenomena may cause are also limiting factors for adaptation. It is therefore essential to identify the factors that influence the adoption of adaptation strategies, and seek alternatives to living with the semiarid that can strengthen the resilience of family farming and social reproduction that allow agricultural segment, even in a climate change scenario
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This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the main meteorological mechanisms trainers and inhibitors of precipitation, and the interactions between different scales of operation, the spatial and temporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in the Rio Grande do Norte. Além disso, considerando as circunstâncias locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica para apoiar ações futuras na gestão da demanda de água no Estado. Database from monthly precipitation of 45 years, ranging between 1963 and 2007, data provided by EMPARN. The methodology used to achieve the results was initially composed of descriptive statistical analysis of historical data to prove the stability of the series, were applied after, geostatistics tool for plotting maps of the variables, within the geostatistical we opted for by Kriging interpolation method because it was the method that showed the best results and minor errors. Among the results, we highlight the annual cycle of rainfall the State which is influenced by meteorological mechanisms of different spatial and temporal scales, where the main mechanisms cycle modulators are the Conference Intertropical Zone (ITCZ) acting since midFebruary to mid May throughout the state, waves Leste (OL), Lines of instability (LI), breeze systems and orographic rainfall acting mainly in the Coastal strip between February and July. Along with vortice of high levels (VCANs), Complex Mesoscale Convective (CCMs) and orographic rain in any region of the state mainly in spring and summer. In terms of larger scale phenomena stood out El Niño and La Niña, ENSO in the tropical Pacific basin. In La Niña episodes usually occur normal or rainy years, as upon the occurrence of prolonged periods of drought are influenced by EL NIÑO. In the Atlantic Ocean the standard Dipole also affects the intensity of the rainfall cycle in State. The cycle of rains in Rio Grande do Norte is divided into two periods, one comprising the regions West, Central and the Western Portion of the Wasteland Potiguar mesoregions of west Chapada Borborema, causing rains from midFebruary to mid-May and a second period of cycle, between February-July, where rains occur in mesoregions East and of the Wasteland, located upwind of the Chapada Borborema, both interspersed with dry periods without occurrence of significant rainfall and transition periods of rainy - dry and dry-rainy where isolated rainfall occur. Approximately 82% of the rainfall stations of the state which corresponds to 83.4% of the total area of Rio Grande do Norte, do not record annual volumes above 900 mm. Because the water supply of the State be maintained by small reservoirs already are in an advanced state of eutrophication, when the rains occur, act to wash and replace the water in the reservoirs, improving the quality of these, reducing the eutrophication process. When rain they do not significantly occur or after long periods of shortages, the process of eutrophication and deterioration of water in dams increased significantly. Through knowledge of the behavior of the annual cycle of rainfall can have an intimate knowledge of how it may be the tendency of rainy or prone to shortages following period, mainly observing the trends of larger scale phenomena
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The time series analysis has played an increasingly important role in weather and climate studies. The success of these studies depends crucially on the knowledge of the quality of climate data such as, for instance, air temperature and rainfall data. For this reason, one of the main challenges for the researchers in this field is to obtain homogeneous series. A time series of climate data is considered homogeneous when the values of the observed data can change only due to climatic factors, i.e., without any interference from external non-climatic factors. Such non-climatic factors may produce undesirable effects in the time series, as unrealistic homogeneity breaks, trends and jumps. In the present work it was investigated climatic time series for the city of Natal, RN, namely air temperature and rainfall time series, for the period spanning from 1961 to 2012. The main purpose was to carry out an analysis in order to check the occurrence of homogeneity breaks or trends in the series under investigation. To this purpose, it was applied some basic statistical procedures, such as normality and independence tests. The occurrence of trends was investigated by linear regression analysis, as well as by the Spearman and Mann-Kendall tests. The homogeneity was investigated by the SNHT, as well as by the Easterling-Peterson and Mann-Whitney-Pettit tests. Analyzes with respect to normality showed divergence in their results. The von Neumann ratio test showed that in the case of the air temperature series the data are not independent and identically distributed (iid), whereas for the rainfall series the data are iid. According to the applied testings, both series display trends. The mean air temperature series displays an increasing trend, whereas the rainfall series shows an decreasing trend. Finally, the homogeneity tests revealed that all series under investigations present inhomogeneities, although they breaks depend on the applied test. In summary, the results showed that the chosen techniques may be applied in order to verify how well the studied time series are characterized. Therefore, these results should be used as a guide for further investigations about the statistical climatology of Natal or even of any other place.
Influência das condições ambientais no verdor da vegetação da caatinga frente às mudanças climáticas
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The Caatinga biome, a semi-arid climate ecosystem found in northeast Brazil, presents low rainfall regime and strong seasonality. It has the most alarming climate change projections within the country, with air temperature rising and rainfall reduction with stronger trends than the global average predictions. Climate change can present detrimental results in this biome, reducing vegetation cover and changing its distribution, as well as altering all ecosystem functioning and finally influencing species diversity. In this context, the purpose of this study is to model the environmental conditions (rainfall and temperature) that influence the Caatinga biome productivity and to predict the consequences of environmental conditions in the vegetation dynamics under future climate change scenarios. Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) was used to estimate vegetation greenness (presence and density) in the area. Considering the strong spatial and temporal autocorrelation as well as the heterogeneity of the data, various GLS models were developed and compared to obtain the best model that would reflect rainfall and temperature influence on vegetation greenness. Applying new climate change scenarios in the model, environmental determinants modification, rainfall and temperature, negatively influenced vegetation greenness in the Caatinga biome. This model was used to create potential vegetation maps for current and future of Caatinga cover considering 20% decrease in precipitation and 1 °C increase in temperature until 2040, 35% decrease in precipitation and 2.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2041-2070 and 50% decrease in precipitation and 4.5 °C increase in temperature in the period 2071-2100. The results suggest that the ecosystem functioning will be affected on the future scenario of climate change with a decrease of 5.9% of the vegetation greenness until 2040, 14.2% until 2070 and 24.3% by the end of the century. The Caatinga vegetation in lower altitude areas (most of the biome) will be more affected by climatic changes.
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Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)
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The climate is still main responsible for the variations soybean productivity (Glycine max (L.) Merrill), exerting a limiting action on these agricultural systems. The bomjesuense cerrado, this culture has proved, over the years, an increase of cultivated areas, however, productivity does not keep the same pace, going through periods of oscillations. Thus, although the crop is added to high technology, culture has great vulnerability to climatic adversities. Thus, the present study aims to analyze possible trends in meteorological variables, which can influence the soybean yield in Bom Jesus. For this purpose, different datasets were used, as follows: i) two periods of daily data (1984-2014 and 1974-2014), both obtained from the National Meteorological Institute (INMET); ii) climate normals from 1961-1990 as defined by INMET; iii) local agricultural production data of soybean-year (1997/1998 to 2012/2013) obtained from the Municipal Agricultural Production (PAM) dataset, which is management by Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The analysis procedures included calculations of climate normals for 1984 to 2014 period and some statistical applications, as follows: i) the Wilcoxon test, used to evaluate differences between climate normals (1961 to 1990 and 1984 to 2014); ii) the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test, in order to analyze the linear trend of agrometeorological variables (rainfall, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and diurnal range of temperature; iii) cluster analysis by Ward method and the Spearman correlation test (rs) to identify the relationship between agrometeorological variable and soybean annual productivity. We adopted a statistical significance level of 5%. The results indicate changes in seasonality of the 1984-2014 climatology with respect to past climatology for all variables analyzed, except for insolation and precipitation. However, the monthly analysis of precipitation indicate negative trend during October and positive trend in December, causing a delay in start of rainy season. If this trend is persistent this result must be considered in futures definitions of the soybean crop sowing date over the region studied. With Mann-Kendall test was possible to identify positive trends with statistical significance in maximum temperature for all month forming part of soybean cycle (from November to April), which in turn tends to cause adverse effects on crop physiology, and consequently impacts on the final yield. Was identified a significant positive correlation between soybean yield and precipitation observed in March, thus precipitation deficit in this month is harmful to the soybean crop development. No statistically significant correlation was identified among maximum temperature, minimum temperature, and DTR with annual soybean productivity due these range of meteorological variables are not limiting factors in the final soybean yield in Bom Jesus (PI). It is expected that this study will contribute to propose planning strategies considering the role of climate variability on soybean crop final yield.
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Objetivo: Avaliar o padrão pulsátil da secreção da testosterona em mulheres normais. Métodos: Oito mulheres saudáveis com ciclos ovulatórios foram selecionadas. Amostras sanguíneas foram coletadas a cada dez minutos durante seis horas, começando entre 7 e 8 h da manhã, após dez horas de jejum, nas três fases do ciclo menstrual: folicular média (Dia 7), folicular tardia (Dia 12) e lútea (Dia 21). Foram mensurados: testosterona, LH e, no basal, também SHBG. Resultados: A frequência dos pulsos de testosterona, média da amplitude do pulso, porcentagem do incremento da amplitude, duração e intervalos dos pulsos foram similares nas três fases (p > 0,05). A pulsatilidade do LH foi estatisticamente diferente entre as três fases (p < 0,001), caracterizando padrão característico do ciclo ovulatório normal. Conclusões: Esses dados aumentam o conhecimento sobre o padrão de secreção da testosterona no ciclo menstrual humano e representam uma contribuição para a investigação clínica, tanto no hiperandrogenismo como na síndrome de insuficiência androgênica __________________________________________________ ABSTRACT Objective: To evaluate the pattern of the pulsatile secretion of testosterone in normal menstrual cycle. Methods: Eight healthy women with ovulatory menstrual cycles were enrolled. Blood samples were collected at ten-minute intervals for six hours, starting between 7 and 8 am, after a ten-hour fasting, in three phases: mid-follicular (Day 7), late follicular (Day 12) and mid-luteal phase (Day 21). Samples were assayed for testosterone, LH and the baseline also for SHBG. Results: Testosterone pulse frequency, mean amplitude pulse, percentage of increment in pulse amplitude, mean duration of pulses and pulse interval were similar in the three phases. LH pulsatility was statistically different among the three phases (p < 0.001) representing normal ovulatory cycles. Conclusions: These data increase the knowledge about the testosterone secretion profile in the human menstrual cycle and can be used as a contribution to clinical investigation in both hyperandrogenism and androgen insufficiency syndrome
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O artigo apresenta os principais elementos que compõem a questão ambiental na sociedade global, através de sua relação entre economia, meio ambiente e política internacional. A primeira parte expõe o debate ambiental no contexto internacional, enfocando-o a partir dos anos 1960, período em que os problemas ambientais surgem com mais intensidade e com eles os protestos sociais nos países centrais. Os encontros sobre política ambiental internacional foram realizados com mais frequência nos anos setenta como a conferência internacional sobre meio ambiente, a primeira chancelada pela ONU em Estocolmo, 1972. Nas décadas de 1970/1980 as autoridades governamentais reconheceram a urgência na resolução da crise ambiental e passaram a traçar estratégias para a mitigação e contenção da crise. A década de 1990 é marcada pela Conferência Rio 1992, que lançou o desenvolvimento sustentável, o qual recomenda que as gerações presentes devem se reproduzir sem comprometer a capacidade de reprodução das gerações futuras. Os encaminhamentos da terceira conferência internacional sobre meio ambiente (Johanesburgo, 2002) condicionaram a questão ambiental à necessidade da formulação de leis ambientais por parte dos Estados Nacionais e instrumentos económicos de gestão ambiental. Na Rio + 20, o tema central foi a economia verde, que surge como alternativa ao desenvolvimento sustentável e se relaciona a mitigação das mudanças climáticas, produção de baixo carbono, eficiência energética, energia renovável etc. O texto se encerra explanando sobre a questão ambiental internacional na sociedade global.
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In the first decades of 20th century the just instituted Brazilian Republic faced the challenge to modernize the country. Considering that the progress was associated with the exhaustion of the forest reserves and with climatic changes, two big issues were seen as fundamental: To Fight the Droughts and To Defend the Forests; headed by professionals who were dedicated to these ideals. This research starts from the premise that these were the main challenges enforced by nature to the Brazilian development; the general objective was delimited in the search to understand the meaning and the conception of the natural world by this group of professionals who faced the shock between modernizing the country and conserving its natural resources. Aiming to contribute with the construction of the Brazilian environmental history and to bring historical elements to the debate about the environment in the country, the author concentrates his attention to the analyses, the discussions and the actions that preceded the regulation on the use of natural resources and the implementation of the environmental legislation in Brazil, occurred in 1934. The investigation uses as methodological basis the theoretical directions of environmental history, using sources of data still little explored and valued. In such way, it is taken as starting point some published papers about this subject during the period between 1889 and 1934 in two technical magazines the Revista Brazil Ferro-Carril and the Revista do Club de Engenharia. National engineering played a basic role in this process while arguing, projecting and constructing the development. The formulated proposals, after being divulged, had fomented the interchange with other professionals and had favored the advance of ambient questions in Brazil, in the sense to preserve natural resources, to construct more harmonic relations between the society and the nature and to equate the development with the environment preservation
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Droughts surfaced in 1877 as a crucial problem for the birthing Brazilian nation. Engineers, who formed the country's technical and scientific elite, took it upon themselves to study, understand and fight the problem through planned actions of intervention on space. This work, based on proposals and discussions contained in engineering magazines and reports, aims to provide elements for the comprehension of how these systematized actions against droughts, in the Iate nineteenth and early twentieth century, contributed to spatial analysis and the formation of a (then-inexistent) regional and territorial planning discipline in Brazi!. Engineers, by taking up the position of masterminds in the country's modernization, guaranteed for themselves personal economic stability, social prestige and political power. By understanding nature, either as a resource to be exploited or an adversary to national progress, they contributed to the delimitation of the region now known as the Northeast. By seeking to understand the drought phenomenon, they created knowledge about the space they sought to intervene on; by constructing their projects amid political and economical difficulty, they changed the organizational structures of cities and country in the northeast. The proposals for açudes (Iarge water reservoirs) allowed the fixation of population and the resistance against droughts; the roads - railroads and automotive roadways - connected the sertão to the capitais and the coast, speeding up help to the affected populations during droughts and allowing the circulation of goods so as to strengthen the local economies in normal rimes. The adopted practices and techniques, adapted from foreign experience and developed through trial and improvement, were consolidated as an eminently spatial intervention course, even if a theoretical body of regional or territorial planning wasn't formed in Brazil. Regional Planning proper was first applied in the country in the Northeast itself, in the 1950s, based off an economical view of reality in order to achieve development. The engineer's work prior tothat date, however, cannot be dlsconsldered. It was proved that, despite facing financial and political hurdles, engineers had a profound commitment to the problem and intended to act systematically to transform the economical and social relations in the region, in order to be victorious in their struggle against droughts
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This research consists in studying the influence of the various type of construction systems of roofs with their energy efficiency as well as on the cost benefit for the commercial buildings on the temperatures condition of the city of Natal/RN. The main goal of this research is to analyze the cost benefit of the construction systems of roofs available on the market, taking into consideration the energy efficiency of the commercial buildings artificially air conditioned in order to be used by the projectors and to be adequated to the temperatures condition of the city of Natal/RN. The method of valuation of the cost benefit of roof systems consists in six steps: Features and simulation of the reference building; Analyze of sensitivity; Analyzes, features and simulation of alternatives of roof construction systems; Analyze of the cost of implementation; Analyze of the benefits of the alternatives comparing to the base case; And finally the analyze of the cost benefit. The model type chosen as reference was stores with pre molded buildings and system of roof with fiber ciment and ceiling . The thermal results showed the influence of the roof system on the energy efficiency of the building. The Final results of the simulations of the alternatives comes to a conclusion that the absortance is the variable that presents the best cost benefit relation and the reduction on the thermal transmittance still has limitations because of the high cost