Modelagem da decisão por pacotes de viagem: um estudo usando processo de hierarquia analítica AHP

The objective of this dissertation is to propose a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used by the costumers of the travel agencies and help them to choose the best package travel. The main objective is to contribute for the simplification of the travel package decision choice from the identification of the models of values and preference of the customers and applying them to the existing package. It is used the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method to structuralize a decision hierarchic model composed by six criteria (package cost, hotel category, security of the city, travel time, direct flight and position in ranking of the 10 most visited destination) and five real alternatives of packages for a holiday of three days created from travel agency data. The decision analysis was realized for the choice of a travel package by a group composed by two couples that regularly travels together, to which was asked to do a pairwise judgment of the criteria and the alternatives. The mains results show that, although been a group that travels together, there are different models of values in the weights of the criteria and a certain convergence in the scales of preferences of the alternatives in the criteria. It was not pointed a dominant alternative for all the members of the group separately, but an analysis of a total utility of the group shows a classification and an order of the travel packages and an alternative clearly in front of the others. The sensitivity analysis revels that there are changes in the ranking, but the two alternatives best classified in the normal analysis are the same ones in the sensitivity analysis, although with the positions changed. The analysis also led to a simplification of the process with the exclusion of alternatives dominated for the others ones. As main conclusion, it is evaluated that the model and method suggested allow a simplification of the decision process in the choice of travel packages

Modelagem de decisão na seleção de equipamento: um estudo usando o processo analítico hierárquico na contratação de sondas de perfuração de poços de petróleo

The main goal of this dissertation is to develop a Multi Criteria Decision Aid Model to be used in Oils and Gas perforation rigs contracts choices. The developed model should permit the utilization of multiples criterions, covering problems that exist with models that mainly use the price of the contracts as its decision criterion. The AHP has been chosen because its large utilization, not only academic, but in many other areas, its simplicity of use and flexibility, and also fill all the requirements necessary to complete the task. The development of the model was conducted by interviews and surveys with one specialist in this specific area, who also acts as the main actor on the decision process. The final model consists in six criterions: Costs, mobility, automation, technical support, how fast the service could be concluded and availability to start the operations. Three rigs were chosen as possible solutions for the problem. The results reached by the utilizations of the model suggests that the utilization of AHP as a decision support system in this kind of situation is possible, allowing a simplifications of the problem, and also it s a useful tool to improve every one involved on the process s knowledge about the problem subject, and its possible solutions

Análise de critérios de decisão em estratégia de arranjos produtivos locais: um estudo aplicando o processo de hierarquia analítica (AHP) no setor de cerâmica

This master thesis has the objective of investigating the strategic decision criteria of participants of Local Production Arrangements (LPA) in Brazil. The LPA s are an initiative of support agents to enterprises with the purpose of organizing joint actions for the development of groups (clusters) of enterprises. The choice of the actions is a decision of the participating enterprises and this paper aims at applying a Multi-criteria Analysis Method to analyze the criteria of entrepreneurs that are participating of a LPA. The used method is the Process of Analytical Hierarchy (PAH) and an application is presented along with questionnaires to participants of a ceramic LPA in the northeast of Brazil. The main results show that, in first place, from the implicit strategy of each enterprise there is only one objective for the LPA group and so, at the beginning, an action decided by all of them tends to favor some more than others. In second place, it was observed that there are general inconsistencies between the strategic objectives and the importance as to criteria, even though there have been cases of coherency. As the main conclusion it is pointed that the use of Methods of MCDA is useful to improve the decision making process and to bring more transparency to the logic of the found results

Uma aplicação da apredizagem por reforço na otimização da produção em um campo de petróleo

The objective of reservoir engineering is to manage fields of oil production in order to maximize the production of hydrocarbons according to economic and physical restrictions. The deciding of a production strategy is a complex activity involving several variables in the process. Thus, a smart system, which assists in the optimization of the options for developing of the field, is very useful in day-to-day of reservoir engineers. This paper proposes the development of an intelligent system to aid decision making, regarding the optimization of strategies of production in oil fields. The intelligence of this system will be implemented through the use of the technique of reinforcement learning, which is presented as a powerful tool in problems of multi-stage decision. The proposed system will allow the specialist to obtain, in time, a great alternative (or near-optimal) for the development of an oil field known

Uma aplicação da apredizagem por reforço na otimização da produção em um campo de petróleo

The objective of reservoir engineering is to manage fields of oil production in order to maximize the production of hydrocarbons according to economic and physical restrictions. The deciding of a production strategy is a complex activity involving several variables in the process. Thus, a smart system, which assists in the optimization of the options for developing of the field, is very useful in day-to-day of reservoir engineers. This paper proposes the development of an intelligent system to aid decision making, regarding the optimization of strategies of production in oil fields. The intelligence of this system will be implemented through the use of the technique of reinforcement learning, which is presented as a powerful tool in problems of multi-stage decision. The proposed system will allow the specialist to obtain, in time, a great alternative (or near-optimal) for the development of an oil field known

Avaliação da produção de sedimento na bacia hidrográfica do rio Potengi através do modelo SWAT

Anthropic disturbances in watersheds, such as inappropriate building development, disorderly land occupation and unplanned land use, may strengthen the sediment yield and the inflow into the estuary, leading to siltation, changes in the reach channel conformation, and ecosystem/water quality problems. Faced with such context, this study aims to assess the applicability of SWAT model to estimate, even in a preliminary way, the sediment yield distribution along the Potengi River watershed, as well as its contribution to the estuary. Furthermore, an assessment of its erosion susceptibility was used for comparison. The susceptibility map was developed by overlaying rainfall erosivity, soil erodibility, the slope of the terrain and land cover. In order to overlap these maps, a multi-criteria analysis through AHP method was applied. The SWAT was run using a five year period (1997-2001), considering three different scenarios based on different sorts of human interference: a) agriculture; b) pasture; and c) no interference (background). Results were analyzed in terms of surface runoff, sediment yield and their propagation along each river section, so that it was possible to find that the regions in the extreme west of the watershed and in the downstream portions returned higher values of sediment yield, reaching respectively 2.8 e 5.1 ton/ha.year, whereas central areas, which were less susceptible, returned the lowest values, never more than 0.7 ton/ha.ano. It was also noticed that in the west sub-watersheds, where one can observe the headwaters, sediment yield was naturally forced by high declivity and weak soils. In another hand, results suggest that the eastern part would not contribute to the sediment inflow into the estuary in a significant way, and the larger part of the sediment yield in that place is due to anthropic activities. For the central region, the analysis of sediment propagation indicates deposition predominance in opposition to transport. Thus, it s not expected that isolated rain storms occurring in the upstream river portions would significantly provide the estuary with sediment. Because the model calibration process hasn t been done yet, it becomes essential to emphasize that values presented here as results should not be applied for pratical aims. Even so, this work warns about the risks of a growth in the alteration of natural land cover, mainly in areas closer to the headwaters and in the downstream Potengi River

Aplicação de sistemas multi-classificadores no diagnóstico de falhas em motores de indução trifásicos

Equipment maintenance is the major cost factor in industrial plants, it is very important the development of fault predict techniques. Three-phase induction motors are key electrical equipments used in industrial applications mainly because presents low cost and large robustness, however, it isn t protected from other fault types such as shorted winding and broken bars. Several acquisition ways, processing and signal analysis are applied to improve its diagnosis. More efficient techniques use current sensors and its signature analysis. In this dissertation, starting of these sensors, it is to make signal analysis through Park s vector that provides a good visualization capability. Faults data acquisition is an arduous task; in this way, it is developed a methodology for data base construction. Park s transformer is applied into stationary reference for machine modeling of the machine s differential equations solution. Faults detection needs a detailed analysis of variables and its influences that becomes the diagnosis more complex. The tasks of pattern recognition allow that systems are automatically generated, based in patterns and data concepts, in the majority cases undetectable for specialists, helping decision tasks. Classifiers algorithms with diverse learning paradigms: k-Neighborhood, Neural Networks, Decision Trees and Naïves Bayes are used to patterns recognition of machines faults. Multi-classifier systems are used to improve classification errors. It inspected the algorithms homogeneous: Bagging and Boosting and heterogeneous: Vote, Stacking and Stacking C. Results present the effectiveness of constructed model to faults modeling, such as the possibility of using multi-classifiers algorithm on faults classification

Implicações socioambientais da construção de um parque eólico no município de Rio de Fogo-RN

The purpose of this study was to investigate the social-environmental implications of the first large scale wind farm recently built in Brazil (2006), Parque Eólico de Rio do Fogo (PERF), to the nearby communities. The research was base on the adjustment of the DIS/BCN tool to analyze social impact and it was linked to the multi-method approach. Applying the autophotography strategy, cameras were given to five children from the district of Zumbi, the nearest location to PERF, and they were asked to individually photograph the six places they liked the most and the six places they liked the least in their community. Then, these children were interviewed individually and collectively about the photographs. Adult locals in Zumbi, residents of Zumbi/Rio do Fogo settlement, members of the State and Municipal government and representatives of the PERF were also interviewed with the aid of some of the pictures taken by the children and others that might trigger something to say, as a strategy called sample function. The five children presented positive image towards PERF; all of them chose to photograph it as one of places they liked. Adult population of Zumbi presented positive visual evaluation towards PERF. A small number of the interviewees were aware of the environmental and social benefits of wind energy production. Residents did not participate of the decision making process regarding PERF. They approved the project, especially because of the jobs provided during construction. Nowadays, PERF is something apart from their lives because it no longer provides jobs or any other interaction between the facility and the locals. Residents relate to the land, not with the facility. However, there is no evidence of rejection towards PERF, it is simply seen as something neutral to their lives. The low levels of education, traditional lack of social commitment and citizenship, and the experience accumulated by PERF´s planners and builders in other countries, may be contributing points to the fact that Zumbi residents did not oppose to PERF. It is clear that the country needs a legislation which seriously considers the psycho-social dimension involved in the implementation of wind farms

MoSAC: um módulo para seleção de configurações arquiteturais baseado em critérios de QoS no contexto de sistema distribuídos autoadaptativos

The process for choosing the best components to build systems has become increasingly complex. It becomes more critical if it was need to consider many combinations of components in the context of an architectural configuration. These circumstances occur, mainly, when we have to deal with systems involving critical requirements, such as the timing constraints in distributed multimedia systems, the network bandwidth in mobile applications or even the reliability in real-time systems. This work proposes a process of dynamic selection of architectural configurations based on non-functional requirements criteria of the system, which can be used during a dynamic adaptation. This proposal uses the MAUT theory (Multi-Attribute Utility Theory) for decision making from a finite set of possibilities, which involve multiple criteria to be analyzed. Additionally, it was proposed a metamodel which can be used to describe the application s requirements in terms of the non-functional requirements criteria and their expected values, to express them in order to make the selection of the desired configuration. As a proof of concept, it was implemented a module that performs the dynamic choice of configurations, the MoSAC. This module was implemented using a component-based development approach (CBD), performing a selection of architectural configurations based on the proposed selection process involving multiple criteria. This work also presents a case study where an application was developed in the context of Digital TV to evaluate the time spent on the module to return a valid configuration to be used in a middleware with autoadaptative features, the middleware AdaptTV

Sistemas computacionais espaço-temporais para toma de decisão em questões ambientais relacionadas à indústria de petróleo e gás

The area between São Bento do Norte and Macau cities, located in the northern coast of the Rio Grande do Norte State is submitted to intense and constant processes of littoral and aeolian transport, causing erosion, alterations in the sediments balance and modifications in the shoreline. Beyond these natural factors, the human interference is huge in the surroundings, composed by sensitive places, due to the existence of the Guamaré Petroliferous Pole, RN, the greater terrestrial oil producing in Brazil, besides the activities of the salt companies and shrimp farms. This socioeconomic-environmental context justifies the elaboration of strategies of environmental monitoring of that coastal area. In the environmental monitoring of coastal strips, submitted to human impacts, the use of multi-sources and multitemporal data integrated through a Spatio- Temporal Database that allows the multiuser friendly access. The objective was to use the potential of the computational systems as important tools the managers of environmental monitoring. The stored data in the form of a virtual library aid in making decisions from the related results and presented in different formats. This procedure enlarges the use of the data in the preventive attendance, in the planning of future actions and in the definition of new lines of researches on the area, in a multiscale approach. Another activity of this Thesis consisted on the development of a computational system to automate the process to elaborate Oil-Spill Environmental Sensitivity Maps, based on the temporal variations that some coastal ecosystems present in the sensibility to the oil. The maps generated in this way, based on the methodology proposed by the Ministério do Meio Ambiente, supply more updated information about the behavior of the ecosystem, as a support to the operations in case of oil spill. Some parameters, such as the hydrodynamic data, the declivity of the beach face, types of resources in risk (environmental, economical, human or cultural) and use and occupation of the area are some of the essential basic information in the elaboration of the sensitivity maps, which suffer temporal alterations.In this way, the two computational systems developed are considered support systems to the decision, because they provide operational subsidies to the environmental monitoring of the coastal areas, considering the transformations in the behavior of coastal elements resulting from temporal changes related the human and/or natural interference of the environment

Caracterização multi-escalar de bandas de deformação nas tectonossequências paleozóica, pré- e sin-rifte da Bacia do Araripe, Nordeste do Brasil

Deformation bands are structures, developed in porous sandstones, that has small offsets and they are not shown on seismic section. The deformation bands of the pre and synrift sandstones of Araripe Basin were studied in outcrop, macroscopic and microscopic scales. The hierarchical, cinematic and spatial-geometric characteristics, and also the deformational mechanisms acting during its structural evolution were established too. In general, the mesoscopic scale observation allowed to discriminate deformation bands as singles or clusters in three main sets: NNE-SSW dextral; NE-SW normal (sometimes with strike-slip offset); and E-W sinistral; further a bed-parallel deformation bands as a local set. The microscopic characterization allowed to recognize the shearing and cataclastic character of such structures. Through the multi-scale study done in this work we verified that deformation bands analyzed were preferentially developed when sandstones under advanced stage of lithification. We also infer that the geometrical-spatial complexity of these bands, together with the presence of cataclastic matrix, can difficult the migration of fluids in reservoir rocks, resulting on their compartmentalization. Therefore, the study of deformation bands can aid researches about the structural evolution of sedimentary basin, as well as collaborate to understand the hydrodynamic behavior of reservoirs compartmented by these deformational structures