Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Modelagem e simulação da deposição de parafinas em escoamento turbulento

The flow assurance has become one of the topics of greatest interest in the oil industry, mainly due to production and transportation of oil in regions with extreme temperature and pressure. In these operations the wax deposition is a commonly problem in flow of paraffinic oils, causing the rising costs of the process, due to increased energy cost of pumping, decreased production, increased pressure on the line and risk of blockage of the pipeline. In order to describe the behavior of the wax deposition phenomena in turbulent flow of paraffinic oils, under different operations conditions, in this work we developed a simulator with easy interface. For that we divided de work in four steps: (i) properties estimation (physical, thermals, of transport and thermodynamics) of n-alkanes and paraffinic mixtures by using correlations; (ii) obtainment of the solubility curve and determination the wax appearance temperature, by calculating the solid-liquid equilibrium of parafinnic systems; (iii) modelling wax deposition process, comprising momentum, mass and heat transfer; (iv) development of graphic interface in MATLAB® environment for to allow the understanding of simulation in different flow conditions as well as understand the matter of the variables (inlet temperature, external temperature, wax appearance temperature, oil composition, and time) on the behavior of the deposition process. The results showed that the simulator developed, called DepoSim, is able to calculate the profile of temperature, thickness of the deposit, and the amount of wax deposited in a simple and fast way, and also with consistent results and applicable to the operation

Estudos de sorção de um corante aniônico modelo em partículas de quitosana reticulada

Textile activity results in effluents with a variety of dyes. Among the several processes for dye-uptaking from these wastewaters, sorption is one of the most effective methods, chitosan being a very promising alternative for this end. The sorption of Methyl Orange by chitosan crosslinked particles was approached using equilibrium and kinetic analyses at different pH s. Besides the standard pseudo-order analysis normally effectuated (i.e. pseudo-first-order and pseudo-second-order), a novel approach involving a pseudo-nth-order kinetics was used, nbeing determined via non-linear regression, using the Levenberg-Marquardt method. Zeta potential measurements indicated that electrostatic interactions were important for the sorption process. Regarding equilibrium experiments, data were well fitted to a hybrid Langmuir-Freundlich isotherm, and estimated Gibbs free energy of adsorption as a function of mass of dye per area of chitosan showed that the process of adsorption becomes more homogeneous as the pH of the continuous phase decreased. Considering the kinetics of sorption, although a pseudo-nth-order description yielded good fits, a kinetic equation involving diffusion adsorption phenomena was found to be more consistent in terms of a physicochemical description of the sorption process

Fragilidade ambiental da bacia hidrográfica do Rio Seridó (RN/PB Brasil)

There are many applications coming from geomorphological studies and their different constitutive and inter related elements, to the implementation of public politics of planning and environmental management. This search presents an analysis of the environmental fragility of the watershed of Seridó River, situated between the states of Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte (Brazil), including the identification of possible unstable areas. It is based on the methodological approach of Ecodynamics of the French researcher J. Tricart (1977) and on the operalisation proposal advocated by the Brazilian J. Ross (1994), related to the Potential and Emerging Ecodynamic Units, grounded in the Relief s Dissection Index or the topographic roughness, soil, rainfall and land use/vegetal cover. Under a quantitative perspective, the results obtained from the analysis of the watershed can be divided into classes of potential fragility: around 2.613,0 km² of low intensity, 5.188,4 km² of medium intensity and 2.585,5 km² of high intensity. Concerning the emerging fragility, the results are close to 2.212,0 km² of low intensity, 6.191,23 km² of medium intensity and 2.062,34 km² of high intensity. In the case of the watershed in question, the environmental degradation is particularly effective in the areas more dissected, where the ecological conditions, in synergy the environmental degradation, prevent the regeneration of vegetation when arises an opportunity for the (re)establishment of its equilibrium tenuous. The collected data is relevant for the territorial and environmental planning of the watershed, once we can still verify a close association of the cities on the central area of desertification with the areas of high environmental instability/fragility. This is an important tool to the understanding of the potential susceptibility of the natural and anthropic environments related to the advance and/or intensification of the erosion process, rock falls, mass movements, among other phenomena inside the potential unstable areas. From this perspective, the continuity of this research becomes extremely important to the understanding and arrangement of the process, together with the engendering and sustainability of the system in its totality; in narrow correlation because their potentialities, constraints and alternatives on Seridó River watershed, and in all the semi-arid region with similar characteristics