Influência dos modelos digitais de terreno na modelagem de circulação hidrodinâmica 2DH: um estudo de caso

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

Cálculo das incertezas climáticas sobre América do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferição através das redes neurais artificiais

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Transporte longitudinal de sedimento na zona costeira de Natal/RN

The longshore sediment transport (LST) is determinant for the occurrence of morphological changes in coastal environments. Understanding their movement mechanisms and transport is an essential source of information for the project design and coastal management plans. This study aims to characterize, initially, the active hydrodynamic circulation in the study area, comprised of four beach sectors from the south coast of Natal, assessing the average annual LST obtained through three proven equations (CERC, Kamphuis and Bayram et al.), defining the best formulation for the study area in question, and analyze the seasonal variability and the decadal transport evolution. The coastal area selected for this work constitutes one of the main tourist corridors in the city, but has suffered serious damage resulting from associated effects of hydrodynamic forcings and their disorderly occupation. As a tool was used the Coastal Modelling System of Brazil (SMC-Brazil), which presents integrated a series of numerical models and a database, properly calibrated and validated for use in developing projects along the Brazilian coastline. The LST rates were obtained for 15 beach profiles distributed throughout the study area. Their extensions take into account the depth of closure calculated by Harllermeier equation, and regarding the physical properties of the sediment, typical values of sandy beaches were adopted, except for the average diameter, which was calculated through an optimization algorithm based on equilibrium profile formulation proposed by Dean. Overall, the results showed an intensification of hydrodynamic forcings under extreme sea wave conditions, especially along the headlands exist in the region. Among the analyzed equations, Bayram et al. was the most suitable for this type of application, with a predominant transport in the south-north direction and the highest rates within the order of 700.000 m3 /year to 2.000.000 m3 /year. The seasonal analysis also indicated a longitudinal transport predominance in the south to north, with the highest rates associated with the fall and winter seasons. In these periods are observed erosive beach states, which indicate a direct relationship between the sediment dynamics and the occurrence of more energetic sea states. Regarding the decadal evolution of transportation, it was found a decrease in transport rate from the 50’s to the 70’s, followed by an increase until the 2000’s, coinciding with the beginning of urbanization process in some stretches of the studied coastline.

Desempenho de uma lagoa de infiltração na absorção de cheias e na recarga de aquífero

A type of macro drainage solution widely used in urban areas with predomi-nance of closed catchments (basins without outlet) is the implementation of detention and infiltration reservoirs (DIR). This type of solution has the main function of storing surface runoff and to promote soil infiltration and, consequently, aquifer recharge. The practice is to avoid floods in the drainage basin low-lying areas. The catchment waterproofing reduces the distributed groundwater recharge in urban areas, as is the case of Natal city, RN. However, the advantage of DIR is to concentrate the runoff and to promote aquifer recharge to an amount that can surpass the distributed natu-ral recharge. In this paper, we proposed studying a small urban drainage catchment, named Experimental Mirassol Watershed (EMW) in Natal, RN, whose outlet is a DIR. The rainfall-runoff transformation processes, water accumulation in DIR and the pro-cess of infiltration and percolation in the soil profile until the free aquifer were mod-eled and, from rainfall event observations, water levels in DIR and free aquifer water level measurements, and also, parameter values determination, it is was enabled to calibrate and modeling these combined processes. The mathematical modeling was carried out from two numerical models. We used the rainfall-runoff model developed by RIGHETTO (2014), and besides, we developed a one-dimensional model to simu-late the soil infiltration, percolation, redistribution soil water and groundwater in a combined system to the reservoir water balance. Continuous simulation was run over a period of eighteen months in time intervals of one minute. The drainage basin was discretized in blocks units as well as street reaches and the soil profile in vertical cells of 2 cm deep to a total depth of 30 m. The generated hydrographs were transformed into inlet volumes to the DIR and then, it was carried out water balance in these time intervals, considering infiltration and percolation of water in the soil profile. As a re-sult, we get to evaluate the storage water process in DIR as well as the infiltration of water, redistribution into the soil and the groundwater aquifer recharge, in continuous temporal simulation. We found that the DIR has good performance to storage excess water drainage and to contribute to the local aquifer recharge process (Aquifer Dunas / Barreiras).

Avaliação e correções de testes de hipóteses em modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura

Survival models deals with the modelling of time to event data. In certain situations, a share of the population can no longer be subjected to the event occurrence. In this context, the cure fraction models emerged. Among the models that incorporate a fraction of cured one of the most known is the promotion time model. In the present study we discuss hypothesis testing in the promotion time model with Weibull distribution for the failure times of susceptible individuals. Hypothesis testing in this model may be performed based on likelihood ratio, gradient, score or Wald statistics. The critical values are obtained from asymptotic approximations, which may result in size distortions in nite sample sizes. This study proposes bootstrap corrections to the aforementioned tests and Bartlett bootstrap to the likelihood ratio statistic in Weibull promotion time model. Using Monte Carlo simulations we compared the nite sample performances of the proposed corrections in contrast with the usual tests. The numerical evidence favors the proposed corrected tests. At the end of the work an empirical application is presented.