Modelos de sobrevivência com fração de cura e erro de medida nas covariáveis

In this work, we study the survival cure rate model proposed by Yakovlev et al. (1993), based on a competing risks structure concurring to cause the event of interest, and the approach proposed by Chen et al. (1999), where covariates are introduced to model the risk amount. We focus the measurement error covariates topics, considering the use of corrected score method in order to obtain consistent estimators. A simulation study is done to evaluate the behavior of the estimators obtained by this method for finite samples. The simulation aims to identify not only the impact on the regression coefficients of the covariates measured with error (Mizoi et al. 2007) but also on the coefficients of covariates measured without error. We also verify the adequacy of the piecewise exponential distribution to the cure rate model with measurement error. At the end, model applications involving real data are made

Problemas e modelos que contribuíram com o desenvolvimento do cálculo diferencial e integral: dos gregos à Newton

This article refers to a research which tries to historically (re)construct the conceptual development of the Integral and Differential calculus, taking into account its constructing model feature, since the Greeks to Newton. These models were created by the problems that have been proposed by the history and were being modified by the time the new problems were put and the mathematics known advanced. In this perspective, I also show how a number of nature philosophers and mathematicians got involved by this process. Starting with the speculations over scientific and philosophical natures done by the ancient Greeks, it culminates with Newton s work in the 17th century. Moreover, I present and analyze the problems proposed (open questions), models generated (questions answered) as well as the religious, political, economic and social conditions involved. This work is divided into 6 chapters plus the final considerations. Chapter 1 shows how the research came about, given my motivation and experience. I outline the ways I have gone trough to refine the main question and present the subject of and the objectives of the research, ending the chapter showing the theoretical bases by which the research was carried out, naming such bases as Investigation Theoretical Fields (ITF). Chapter 2 presents each one of the theoretical bases, which was introduced in the chapter 1 s end. In this discuss, I try to connect the ITF to the research. The Chapter 3 discusses the methodological choices done considering the theoretical fields considered. So, the Chapters 4, 5 and 6 present the main corpus of the research, i.e., they reconstruct the calculus history under a perspective of model building (questions answered) from the problems given (open questions), analyzing since the ancient Greeks contribution (Chapter 4), pos- Greek, especially, the Romans contribution, Hindus, Arabian, and the contribution on the Medium Age (Chapter 5). I relate the European reborn and the contribution of the philosophers and scientists until culminate with the Newton s work (Chapter 6). In the final considerations, it finally gives an account on my impressions about the development of the research as well as the results reached here. By the end, I plan out a propose of curse of Differential and Integral Calculus, having by basis the last three chapters of the article

Análise e desenvolvimento de controladores preditivos multivariáveis baseados em multi-modelos bilineares

This work addresses issues related to analysis and development of multivariable predictive controllers based on bilinear multi-models. Linear Generalized Predictive Control (GPC) monovariable and multivariable is shown, and highlighted its properties, key features and applications in industry. Bilinear GPC, the basis for the development of this thesis, is presented by the time-step quasilinearization approach. Some results are presented using this controller in order to show its best performance when compared to linear GPC, since the bilinear models represent better the dynamics of certain processes. Time-step quasilinearization, due to the fact that it is an approximation, causes a prediction error, which limits the performance of this controller when prediction horizon increases. Due to its prediction error, Bilinear GPC with iterative compensation is shown in order to minimize this error, seeking a better performance than the classic Bilinear GPC. Results of iterative compensation algorithm are shown. The use of multi-model is discussed in this thesis, in order to correct the deficiency of controllers based on single model, when they are applied in cases with large operation ranges. Methods of measuring the distance between models, also called metrics, are the main contribution of this thesis. Several application results in simulated distillation columns, which are close enough to actual behaviour of them, are made, and the results have shown satisfactory

Um modelo de unidade de medida inercial utilizando três acelerômetros triaxiais

No espaço tridimensional, um corpo rígido qualquer pode efetuar translações e ou rotações em relação a cada um de seus eixos. Identificar com precisão o deslocamento realizado por um corpo é fundamental para alguns tipos de sistemas em engenharia. Em sistemas de navegação inercial tradicionais, utilizam-se acelerômetros para reconhecer a aceleração linear e giroscópios para reconhecer a velocidade angular registrada durante o deslocamento. O giroscópio, entretanto, é um dispositivo de custo mais elevado e com alto consumo de energia quando comparado a um acelerômetro. Essa desvantagem deu origem a pesquisas a respeito de sistemas e unidades de medidas inerciais que não utilizam giroscópios. A ideia de utilizar apenas acelerômetros para calcular o movimento linear e angular surgiu no início da década de 60 e vem se desenvolvendo através de modelos que variam no número de sensores, na maneira como estes são organizados e no modelo matemático que é utilizado para derivar o movimento do corpo. Esse trabalho propõe um esquema de configuração para construção de uma unidade de medida inercial que utiliza três acelerômetros triaxiais. Para identificar o deslocamento de um corpo rígido a partir deste esquema, foi utilizado um modelo matemático que utiliza apenas os nove sinais de aceleração extraídos dos três sensores. A proposta sugere que os sensores sejam montados e distribuídos em formato de L . Essa disposição permite a utilização de um único plano do sistema de coordenadas, facilitando assim a instalação e configuração destes dispositivos e possibilitando a implantação dos sensores em uma única placa de circuito integrado. Os resultados encontrados a partir das simulações iniciais demonstram a viabilidade da utilização do esquema de configuração proposto

Modelos analíticos para rádio fontes extragalácticas

The great majority of analytical models for extragalactic radio sources suppose self-similarity and can be classified into three types: I, II and III. We have developed a model that represents a generalization of most models found in the literature and showed that these three types are particular cases. The model assumes that the area of the head of the jet varies with the jet size according to a power law and the jet luminosity is a function of time. As it is usually done, the basic hypothesis is that there is an equilibrium between the pressure exerted both by the head of the jet and the cocoon walls and the ram pressure of the ambient medium. The equilibrium equations and energy conservation equation allow us to express the size and width of the source and the pressure in the cocoon as a power law and find the respective exponents. All these assumptions can be used to calculate the evolution of the source size, width and radio luminosity. This can then be compared with the observed width-size relation for radio lobes and the power-size (P-D) diagram of both compact (GPS and CSS) and extended sources from the 3CR catalogue. In this work we introduce two important improvement as compared with a previous work: (1)We have put together a larger sample of both compact and extended radio sources

Um framework baseado em modelos para desenvolvimento de sistemas multimídia distribuídos autoadaptativos

Distributed multimedia systems have highly variable characteristics, resulting in new requirements while new technologies become available or in the need for adequacy in accordance with the amount of available resources. So, these systems should provide support for dynamic adaptations in order to adjust their structures and behaviors at runtime. This paper presents an approach to adaptation model-based and proposes a reflective and component-based framework for construction and support of self-adaptive distributed multimedia systems, providing many facilities for the development and evolution of such systems, such as dynamic adaptation. The propose is to keep one or more models to represent the system at runtime, so some external entity can perform an analysis of these models by identifying problems and trying to solve them. These models integrate the reflective meta-level, acting as a system self-representation. The framework defines a meta-model for description of self-adaptive distributed multimedia applications, which can represent components and their relationships, policies for QoS specification and adaptation actions. Additionally, this paper proposes an ADL and architecture for model-based adaptation. As a case study, this paper presents some scenarios to demonstrate the application of the framework in practice, with and without the use of ADL, as well as check some characteristics related to dynamic adaptation

Contribuições de modelagem de equações estruturais na análise de dados em modelos comportamentais de destino turístico

A fragilidade brasileira quanto à competitividade turística é um fato observável nos dados da Organização Mundial do Turismo. O Brasil caiu em 2011, da 45ª para a 52ª posição, apesar de liderar no atributo recursos naturais e estar colocado na 23° em recursos culturais. Assim, grandes interesses e esforços têm sido direcionados para o estudo da competitividade dos produtos e destinos turísticos. O destino turístico é caracterizado por um conjunto complexo e articulado de fatores tangíveis e intangíveis, apresentando alta complexidade, dados de elevada dimensionalidade, não linearidade e comportamento dinâmico, tornando-se difícil a modelagem desses processos por meio de abordagens baseadas em técnicas estatísticas clássicas. Esta tese investigou modelos de equações estruturais e seus algoritmos, aplicados nesta área, analisando o ciclo completo de análise de dados, em um processo confirmatório no desenvolvimento e avaliação de um modelo holístico da satisfação do turista; na validação da estrutura do modelo de medida e do modelo estrutural, por meio de testes de invariância de múltiplos grupos; na análise comparativa dos métodos de estimação MLE, GLS e ULS para a modelagem da satisfação e na realização de segmentação de mercado no setor de destino turístico utilizando mapas auto-organizáveis de Kohonen e sua validação com modelagem de equações estruturais. Aplicações foram feitas em análises de dados no setor de turismo, principal indústria de serviços do Estado do Rio Grande do Norte, tendo sido, teoricamente desenvolvidos e testados empiricamente, modelos de equações estruturais em padrões comportamentais de destino turístico. Os resultados do estudo empírico se basearam em pesquisas com a técnica de amostragem aleatória sistemática, efetuadas em Natal-RN, entre Janeiro e Março de 2013 e forneceram evidências sustentáveis de que o modelo teórico proposto é satisfatório, com elevada capacidade explicativa e preditiva, sendo a satisfação o antecedente mais importante da lealdade no destino. Além disso, a satisfação é mediadora entre a geração da motivação da viagem e a lealdade do destino e que os turistas buscam primeiro à satisfação com a qualidade dos serviços de turismo e, posteriormente, com os aspectos que influenciam a lealdade. Contribuições acadêmicas e gerenciais são mostradas e sugestões de estudo são dadas para trabalhos futuros.

Modelos de condutividade térmica em rochas silicáticas, com ênfase em rochas da província Borborema, NE do Brasil

A practical approach to estimate rock thermal conductivities is to use rock models based just on the observed or expected rock mineral content. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the Krischer and Esdorn (KE), Hashin and Shtrikman (HS), classic Maxwell (CM), Maxwell-Wiener (MW), and geometric mean (GM) models in reproducing the measures of thermal conductivity of crystalline rocks.We used 1,105 samples of igneous and metamorphic rocks collected in outcroppings of the Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil. Both thermal conductivity and petrographic modal analysis (percent volumes of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, and sum of mafic minerals) were done. We divided the rocks into two groups: (a) igneous and ortho-derived (or meta-igneous) rocks and (b) metasedimentary rocks. The group of igneous and ortho-derived rocks (939 samples) covers most the lithologies de_ned in the Streckeisen diagram, with higher concentrations in the fields of granite, granodiorite, and tonalite. In the group of metasedimentary rocks (166 samples), it were sampled representative lithologies, usually of low to medium metamorphic grade. We treat the problem of reproducing the measured values of rock conductivity as an inverse problem where, besides the conductivity measurements, the volume fractions of the constituent minerals are known and the effective conductivities of the constituent minerals and model parameters are unknown. The key idea was to identify the model (and its associated estimates of effective mineral conductivities and parameters) that better reproduces the measures of rock conductivity. We evaluate the model performances by the quantity  that is equal to the percentage of number of rock samples which estimated conductivities honor the measured conductivities within the tolerance of 15%. In general, for all models, the performances were quite inferior for the metasedimentary rocks (34% <  < 65%) as compared with the igneous and ortho-derived rocks (51% <  < 70%). For igneous and ortho-derived rocks, all model performances were very similar ( = 70%), except the GM-model that presented a poor performance (51% <  < 65%); the KE and HS-models ( = 70%) were slightly superior than the CM and MW-models ( = 67%). The quartz content is the dominant factor in explaining the rock conductivity for igneous and ortho-derived rocks; in particular, using the MW-model the solution is in practice vi UFRN/CCET– Dissertação de mestrado the series association of the quartz content. On the other hand, for metasedimentary rocks, model performances were different and the performance of the KEmodel ( = 65%) was quite superior than the HS ( = 53%), CM (34% <  < 42%), MW ( = 40%), and GM (35% <  < 42%). The estimated effective mineral conductivities are stable for perturbations both in the rock conductivity measures and in the quartz volume fraction. The fact that the metasedimentary rocks are richer in platy-minerals explains partially the poor model performances, because both the high thermal anisotropy of biotite (one of the most common platy-mineral) and the difficulty in obtaining polished surfaces for measurement coupling when platyminerals are present. Independently of the rock type, both very low and very high values of rock conductivities are hardly explained by rock models based just on rock mineral content.

Cálculo das incertezas climáticas sobre América do Sul utilizando modelos do CMIP5: aferição através das redes neurais artificiais

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