Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Potencialidades de cultivo de macroalgas no litoral do Rio Grande do Norte (NE, Brasil): uma perspectiva de integração de dados ambientais em sistemas de informação geográfica (SIG)

Since centuries ago, the Asians use seaweed as an important source of feeding and are their greatest world-wide consumers. The migration of these peoples for other countries, made the demand for seaweed to increase. This increasing demand prompted an industry with annual values of around US$ 6 billion. The algal biomass used for the industry is collected in natural reservoirs or cultivated. The market necessity for products of the seaweed base promotes an unsustainable exploration of the natural banks, compromising its associated biological balance. In this context, seaweed culture appears as a viable alternative to prevent the depletion of these natural supplies. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide space and produce information that can facilitate the evaluation of important physical and socio-economic characteristics for the planning of seaweed culture. This objective of this study is to identify potential coastal areas for seaweed culture in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, from the integration of social-environmental data in the SIG. In order to achieve this objective, a geo-referred database composed of geographical maps, nautical maps and orbital digital images was assembled; and a bank of attributes including physical and oceanographical variables (winds, chains, bathymetry, operational distance from the culture) and social and environmental factors (main income, experience with seaweed harvesting, demographic density, proximity of the sheltered coast and distance of the banks) was produced. In the modeling of the data, the integration of the space database with the bank of attributes for the attainment of the map of potentiality of seaweed culture was carried out. Of a total of 2,011 ha analyzed by the GIS for the culture of seaweed, around 34% or 682 ha were indicated as high potential, 55% or 1,101 ha as medium potential, and 11% or 228 ha as low potential. The good indices of potentiality obtained in the localities studied demonstrate that there are adequate conditions for the installation of seaweed culture in the state of Rio Grande do Norte

Estudo epidemiológico das parasitoses oculares na população de escolares da cidade de Natal-RN, Brasil

The objective of this study is to estimate the prevalence of Ocular Toxocariasis, Diffuse Unilateral Subacute Neuroretinitis (DUSN), Toxoplasma gondii infection and Ocular Toxoplasmosis in a student population in Natal-RN/Brazil and relate it to demographic, epidemiologic and socio-economic risk factors. The incidence of DUSN was observed in patients at the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte Ophthalmology Service and the Prontoclinica de Olhos Ophthalmology clinic in Natal. In cases where a worm was found in the subretinal space, the result of treatment with photocoagulation using Green Laser (Eye Light ALCON) was evaluated in relation to final visual result. The sample was randomly selected among the schools of the four districts of Natal, according to the type of institution (public or private), its level (elementary or secondary), and study period (morning, afternoon or evening). The school population was studied from March to May, 2001. Initially, the students answered a questionnaire to evaluate demographic, epidemiologic and socio-economic risk factors. Afterwards, the following procedures were carried out: blood samples were taken for Toxoplasmosis (IgG, IgM) serology, hemogram, ophthalmological examination, consisting of clinical history, measurement of visual acuity, refraction under cycloplegia, biomicroscopy of the anterior segment and annexa, funduscopy and examination of extrinsic motility. The prevalence of Toxocariasis was 0.2% or 2 per one thousand students. The sample was insufficient to estimate the prevalence of DUSN. Seventy patients with DUSN diagnosis were examined from January, 2001 to January, 2003. A live worm was found in the subretinal space of all four patients in the acute phase, and these were treated with laser photocoagulation. After follow-up (average = 11.5 months), visual acuity improved in three eyes and remained unaltered in one eye. Worms were found in 22 of the 66 patients in the chronic phase, and these also were treated with laser photocoagulation. After a follow-up period of 13.1 months, on average, visual acuity improved in two of the patients, remained unchanged in 19 and worsened in one. The comparison of visual result before and after treatment was not statistically significant (p = 0.302). The diagnosis of DUSN in the acute phase, followed by prompt localization and destruction of the worm by photocoagulation, can improve the patient s vision. However, destruction of the worm by laser photocoagulation in eyes with DUSN in the chronic phase does not improve visual acuity. Seroprevalence for IgG was 46% (Confidence Interval CI 95%-42.9-49.2%) and for IgM it was 1.4% (CI 95% = 0.8-2.4%). The prevalence of ocular lesion was 1.15% (CI 95% = 0.6 - 2.0%). Socio-economic conditions were determinants in the prevalence of Systemic and Ocular Toxoplasmosis in the bivaried analysis and confirmed in the multivaried analysis (mother s scholarity illiterate/ OR = 2.9 and p < 0.001). The T. gondii infection prevalence, although high, was less than that found in studies performed in the South and Southeast of Brazil and that of Ocular Toxoplasmosis was completely discrepant, varying from 5 to 17 times less. Although important epidemiological variables such as owning a cat, drinking unfiltered water, and coming into contact with rivers or lakes showed an association in the preliminary analysis, they lost their influence when included in the logistic model. Future studies are scheduled to begin in March, 2004, in collaboration with other Brazilian and American universities in an attempt to discover the reason for these findings, as well as identifying the different strains of Toxoplasma gondii, and studying the sources of water utilized by the population of Natal Brazil

Novas fronteiras petrolíferas no Brasil : uma análise da necessidade de nova regulamentação da área do pré-sal sob a ótica constitucional

The Oil industry in Brazil has gone through several stages during the economical, political and social historical process. However, the significative changes have happened in the last fifteen years, due to market opening arising from the relaxation of the state monopoly over the Oil deposits and its derivatives. The edition of the Constitutional Amendment #9, changing the first paragraph of the 177th item of the Federal Constitution, marked the end of a stiffness about the monopoly that the Brazilian state kept in relation to the exploration and research of Oil and Gas. The economical order was fundamental to actualize the idea contained in the #9 Amendment, since its contents has the power to set up measures to be adopted by public power in order to organize the economical relations from a social viewpoint. The new brazilian Oil scenery, called pre-salt, presents itself in a way to amaze the economical markets, in addition to creating a new perspective to the social sector. This work will identify, in this new scenario, the need for change in the legal system. Nevertheless, this subject must not be treated in a thoughtless way: being an exhaustible good, we shall not forget that the future generations also must benefit from the exploration of natural resources recently discovered. The settlement of a new regulatory mark, including the change in the concession contract model to production and sharing is one of the suggested solutions as a bill in the National Congress, in an attempt to ensure the sovereignty of the nation. The constitutionality of a new regulatory mark is questioned, starting from an analysis of the state monopoly, grounding the comprehnsions in the brazilian constitutions, the relevance of the creation of Petrobras for self-assertion of the state about the monopoly of Oil and derivatives, and its posture after the Constitutional Amendment nº 9 (1995), when a company stops having control of the state monopoly, beginning to compete in a fairly way with other companies. The market opening and private initiative are emphasized from the viewpoint of the Constitutional Principles of the Economical and Social Order. The relaxation of the monopoly regarding the exploratory activity in the Federal Constitution doesn't deprive from the Union the ownerships of underground goods, enabling to this federal entity to contract, directly or by concession of exploration of goods, to state-owned or private companies. The existing oil in the pre-salt layer transforms the scenario from very high risk to low risk, which gives the Union the possibility of defining another way of exploring this resources in the best interests of the Public Administration

Avaliação do desempenho reprodutivo do Cavalo-Marinho Hippocampus reidi (GINSBURG 1933) do estuário do Rio Potengi (Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil) com vistas ao seu cultivo em bases sustentáveis

Os cavalos-marinhos têm cativado a imaginação e a curiosidade dos seres humanos por centenas de anos. No entanto, nos dias de hoje, esses animais correm um sério risco de extinção por fatores como a pesca desordenada para suprir os mercados de peixes ornamentais e da medicina tradicional chinesa e principalmente, a destruição do seu habitat. Nesse contexto, é crescente o número de estudos sobre a ecologia, a biologia (reprodutiva, especialmente) e o cultivo de várias espécies do gênero Hippocampus, inclusive para fins conservacionistas e de recomposição de estoques. Duas espécies de cavalos-marinhos são encontradas no Brasil: Hippocampus reidi Ginsburg 1933 e Hippocampus erectus Perry. No entanto, as informações sobre essas espécies estão basicamente restritas ao seu grau de ocorrência ou a sua área de ocupação. No presente estudo, foi avaliado o desempenho reprodutivo de Hippocampus reidi do estuário do rio Potengi (05° 47' 42'' S; 35° 12' 34'' W), em Natal, Rio Grande do Norte. Para tanto, cavalos-marinhos grávidos (n = 38) foram coletados no referido estuário nos meses de setembro, outubro e novembro de 2008 e julho, agosto, setembro e outubro de 2009 e mantidos em laboratório até que liberassem os filhotes. O comprimento padrão (CPA), altura (ATA), volume da bolsa (VB) e peso úmido (PuA) dos adultos, bem como o comprimento padrão (CPF), altura (ATF), peso úmido (PuF) e peso seco (PsF) dos filhotes foram determinados. Os resultados obtidos mostraram que houve correlações significativas entre o CPA e a ATA (r²=0,171), CPA e PuA (r²=0,624), CPA e VB (r²=0,256), ATA e PuA (r²=0,788), PuA e VB (r²=0,211), CPF e ATF (r²=0,903) e CPF e PsF (r²=0,163). A análise de correspondência (AC) que associou as classes do comprimento padrão dos adultos (CPA) e o volume da bolsa de H. reidi ao número de filhotes mostrou que animais entre 19 cm e 21 cm e com volume de bolsa entre 3 mL e 4 mL foram os que liberaram o maior número de filhotes. Os resultados do presente estudo também indicam que o tamanho mínimo de captura recomendado pela CITES (10 cm de altura) para H. reidi deve ser revisto, uma vez que não foram encontrados animais menores que 13,5 cm que estivessem grávidos. Finalmente, o número médio de filhotes por desova obtido no presente estudo (n = 775 ± 398 filhotes) realçou o potencial reprodutivo de H. reidi e a necessidade de estudos adicionais com esta espécie

Desenvolvimento profissional de futuros professores: travessias que se entrecruzam em contextos formativos

This study aimed to understand how the educational context contributes to the professional development of future teachers on introduction to teaching practice. To this end, we seek to characterize what the learning and the difficulties experienced in training contexts by future teachers, as well as the intrinsic elements to the training contexts that enable professional development. The investigated contexts were the Institutional Program Initiation Grant to Teaching (Programa Institucional de Bolsa de Iniciação à Docência – PIBID), specifically the sub-projects of Chemistry and Physics of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte – UFRN) and Masters in Teaching of Physics and Chemistry of the University of Lisbon (MEFQ ). In both contexts, the future teachers are in contact with the school in a systematic way. The methodology used in our study is rooted in qualitative research with interpretative guidance and the design in the study of multiple cases with instrumental purpose. Participated in this study as the main subject, 40 future teachers PIBID of Physics, 24 PIBID future teachers of Chemistry and 5 future Master Teachers in Teaching Chemistry and Physics. As supporting subjects, participated in 3 PIBID Area Coordinators, the teacher of Introduction to Professional Practice of MEFQ, and 8 teachers who teach chemistry and / or physics in public schools. Multiple data collection tools were used: naturalistic observation, descriptive questionnaire, individual interviews, focus groups, reading of written records and official documents. In analyzing the data, we used the method of questioning and constant comparison. The results showed that the main learning of future teachers are related to the strategy employed in class, the change in the understanding of the role of teacher and student in the classroom, the construction of the professional profile and the development of collaborative practices. The main difficulties were related to the development of activities, the management of time and group, the dynamics of the classroom and the material conditions of work. The characteristics inherent in training contexts investigated for professional development are: the practice itself of the research, the collaboration, the focused reflection on practice, focus on student learning and the improving public schools. From the results, it is evidenced that the training contexts centered at school have the capability to resize the practice based on the analysis of actions, in a collaborative work as well as create opportunities for awareness of the concepts, the acting and the way to understand the profession. It is needed for effective mediation trainers, so that future teachers undertake their own practice and, therefore, they can build teaching strategies that promote learning which, in addition to increase the quality of education, favor the professional development throughout life.

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Potencialidades de cultivo de macroalgas no litoral do Rio Grande do Norte (NE, Brasil): uma perspectiva de integração de dados ambientais em sistemas de informação geográfica (SIG)

Since centuries ago, the Asians use seaweed as an important source of feeding and are their greatest world-wide consumers. The migration of these peoples for other countries, made the demand for seaweed to increase. This increasing demand prompted an industry with annual values of around US$ 6 billion. The algal biomass used for the industry is collected in natural reservoirs or cultivated. The market necessity for products of the seaweed base promotes an unsustainable exploration of the natural banks, compromising its associated biological balance. In this context, seaweed culture appears as a viable alternative to prevent the depletion of these natural supplies. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide space and produce information that can facilitate the evaluation of important physical and socio-economic characteristics for the planning of seaweed culture. This objective of this study is to identify potential coastal areas for seaweed culture in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, from the integration of social-environmental data in the SIG. In order to achieve this objective, a geo-referred database composed of geographical maps, nautical maps and orbital digital images was assembled; and a bank of attributes including physical and oceanographical variables (winds, chains, bathymetry, operational distance from the culture) and social and environmental factors (main income, experience with seaweed harvesting, demographic density, proximity of the sheltered coast and distance of the banks) was produced. In the modeling of the data, the integration of the space database with the bank of attributes for the attainment of the map of potentiality of seaweed culture was carried out. Of a total of 2,011 ha analyzed by the GIS for the culture of seaweed, around 34% or 682 ha were indicated as high potential, 55% or 1,101 ha as medium potential, and 11% or 228 ha as low potential. The good indices of potentiality obtained in the localities studied demonstrate that there are adequate conditions for the installation of seaweed culture in the state of Rio Grande do Norte