Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Do lixo à solidariedade : avanços e perspectivas na busca de uma nova realidade

The dissertating study about the solidarity economy has the objective to analyze the four unions responsible for the selective municipal garbage collection in Natal. It aims at verifying the consolidation of these unions as solidarity economic undertakings, revealing which progresses they have made, as well as the social and economic insertion of the garbage collectors and their process of conquering citizenship. The referred four unions had been founded and are constituted, in their majority, by collectors coming from the Cidade Nova lixão (big garbage). As it was closed in August 2004, they decided to make a union in order to collecting garbage. As what concerns the methodic and theoretic proceedings, our research has been developed with a critical perspective and a qualitative approach without discarding and quantitative one. The central analytical categories of this paper are: association, work, social exclusion and citizenship. Our research has had three articulated axis which aim was to apprehend the subject, disclosing it. The exposition of the investigative results is subdivided in four chapters. The first one approaches the main aspects of the crisis of the capital and its reflexes in the world of work. Here we deal with the question the structural unemployment coming as a result of the present economic model, the mains changes verified in the Brazilian work market, as well as levels of unemployment affecting the work market in Natal s metropolitan region. The second chapter treats of the origin, concept and revival in Brazil concerning the tradition of thought and cooperative economic organization, which has recovered the central elements of the associative thought and is nowadays studied in Latin America under the name of solidarity economy. The third chapter deals with embodiment of the collectors unions, its history, appearing and development of each union. The fourth chapter presents the relative dimensions of the analysis categories supported in the reports of institutional actors as well as the perception collectors have about the recyclable stuffs, the way they face the daily life and so on, what brings about the contradictions present in their reality. The final comments sum up the main trends and particularities of the unions researched under the light of the solidarity economy and disclose the real perspectives of social and economic insertion of these collectors and the process they follow to conquest social recognition

Avaliação dos impactos do programa bolsa família na renda, na educação e no mercado de trabalho das famílias pobres do Brasil

This study aims to verify the impact of the Bolsa Família Program (BFP) in income and school attendance of poor Brazilian families. It is intended to also check the existence of a possible negative effect of the program on the labor market, titled as sloth effect. For such, microdata from the IBGE Census sample in 2010 were used. Seeking to purge possible selection biases, methodology of Quantilic Treatment Effect (QTE) was applied, in particular the estimator proposed by Firpo (2007), which assumes an exogenous and non-conditional treatment. Moreover, Foster- Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) index was calculated to check if there are fewer households below the poverty line, as well as if the inequality among the poor decreases. Human Opportunity Index (HOI) was also calculated to measure the access of young people / children education. Results showed that BFP has positively influenced the family per capita income and education (number of children aged 5-17 years old attending school). As for the labor market (worked hours and labor income), the program showed a negative effect. Thus, when compared with not benefiting families, those families who receive the BFP have: a) a higher family income (due to the shock of the transfer budget money) b) more children attending school (due to the conditionality imposed by the program); c) less worked hours (due to sloth effect in certain family groups) and d) a lower income from work. All these effects were potentiated separating the sample in the five Brazilian regions, being observed that the BFP strongly influenced the Northeast, showing a greater decrease in income inequality and poverty, and at the same time, achieved a greater negative impact on the labor market

Mercado de trabalho, ocupações e rendimentos: a Região Metropolitana de Natal na década de 1990

The aim of this study is the labour market at Natal Metropolitan Region with emphasis in occupations and incomes that took place at the nineties. The definition of its chronological boundaries passed by verification of existence of evident socio-spatial impacts for output, occupation and income in national economy, with rebounds in all national territory, conditioned by institutional and socio-economical transformations which marked Brazilian insertion to capital flows and commodities globalization movement that took place at the cited decade. It has been shown that such impacts did not distributed themselves equally between diverse spatial levels (great regions, federate unities, municipalities) because of historical specificities in each place in terms of output structures and organization of distinct social agents. Having as its basis the Marxist perspective, it tackled theoretically occupations and incomes, transformations in labour universe occurred at world level, mainly in most urbanized areas, and following that to focus changes occurred in Brazilian society related to the search for competitive insertion in global economy during the period regarded. Special attention was gave to Natal Metropolitan Region, because it was historically a concentration area for investments, productive structure, people, occupations and incomes generated/appropriated in Rio Grande do Norte State. The basic data sources for research were the demographic Census (micro data) made by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) intending to present the structure and the labour market dynamics, having as basis: 1) traditional indicators about labour market; 2) sectors of economic activities and 3) social positions and classes segments. One of the purposes is the demonstration that occupations and incomes keep relation with the restructuring which occurred in each specific sector during the period. Other purpose is to make explicit the factors which bear the participation of distinct segments in production or service execution that make possible the different participation in income distribution. Results are revealing the increasin precariousness in labour market, enlargement of occupations in tertiary sector and greater concentration of average incomes in the social segments which were owners of the greatest capital allowances between residents in Natal Metropolitan Region during the nineties

Estrutura econômica, mercado de trabalho e evolução sócio-ocupacional no Rio Grande do Norte 2001 a 2008: reflexo de uma condição mercantil e estruturalmente periférica

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the evolution of the socio-occupational status in Rio Grande do Norte from 2001 to 2008, based on the characterization of the socio-economic status of this State from the analysis of labor market norte-rio-grandense . The study, specifically, drew a comparison between the dynamics of the labor market in Rio Grande do Norte and the capital city, Natal. From this perspective, the purpose was to make a relationship between the social division of labor and its effects on the socio-spatial division, represented in the "macro scale" by the federal unit and the "micro level" for the capital; locus of economic and population concentration. The collection of data on the labor market had as a major source PNAD/IBGE, characterizing the labor market in many ways: people of working age, economically active population and employed and unemployed people, classified by age, sex, color, education, income and social protection condition. However, as for the socio-occupational division, we follow the methodology used by the research group on national television, based in IPPUR /UFRJ, called Monitoring of the Metropolis," which rallied twenty-four groups that aggregate the occupations found in the PNAD/IBGE, in eight groups of socio-occupational categories, according to the similarity between them. It was used in the socio-spatial cutting two relevant discussions, which are inter-related and were characterized as crucial points in developing the research problem: the former was related to the influence of the hegemony of merchant capital in the labor market in Rio Grande North and, the latter, it referred the socio-economic relations between the territory and the variable occupation. Lastly, the results all indicated that in Rio Grande do Norte, as a peripheral state, has suffered the devastating influence of the hegemony of capital purely commercial basis, where "wealth" of capitalism is generated through the sphere of mere movement of goods and services rather than a productive process due to the social relations of production more advanced. We have a little advanced economic structure, with a tertiary sector that has propagated under-employment or disguised unemployment. Similarly, the agricultural sector has been presented as an example of greater social degradation of working conditions in the state. The secondary sector, in turn, also was not behind this uncertainty; on the contrary, confirmed that condition, with poor levels of income, low education of the workforce and a high degree of social helplessness, even in the state capital, space full urban area, which although always appear with a favorable condition compared to Province, in practically most of the variables studied, was also reflected at the same time the author of a structurally underdeveloped condition

A alteração do tipo penal de adulteração de combustíveis: reflexo da constitucionalização do direito penal no mercado de combustíveis

The neoconstitutionalism led to a process of ethical revaluation of the normative systems and the process of constitutionalization of the many fields of law. This study examines the consequences of this process in criminal law, so important a Law field for the protection of the most valuable assets by the society, including the fundamental guarantees, thus emphasizing the necessity of protection of the collective and individual rights, which are guided by the observance of the defendants individual rights in the course of criminal proceedings and the search for the best efficiency of penal protection, according to the corollaries of defense against the state (prohibition of the excess or Übermassverbot) and the provision of rights by the state (prohibition of insufficient protection or Untermassverbot). The offense of fuel adulteration is taken as an object of study, since it is a vital market to a nation dependent of people and good s movement for their living, driven by fossil and biofuels. Such a crime affects essential legal interests to the development of society, interests such as the environment, consumer relations and economic order, particularly the principle of free competition. This paper seeks to analyze the need of a greater efficiency of this particular criminal protection, once concluded the conduct harm and social fear as a consequence by it as growing, and therefore having its former crime type, engraved in Article 1 of Law No. 8.176/1991, rewritten in compliance with the criminal law s principle of legality. Thus, the reformation proposals and legislative creation involving this crime were observed, with emphasis on the bill No. 2498/2003, which keeps it as blank heterogeneous criminal norm, kind of penal normative whose constitutionality is raised, including the forethought of criminal responsibility in the perpetrating of the offense as culpable and subsequently increasing the applicable minimum penalty, as well as the inclusion of new activities in the typical nucleus

Gestão da satisfação e da fidelidade de consumidores :um estudo dos fatores que afetam a satisfação e a fidelidade no mercado de turismo

The corporative strategies have been systematically changing since the middle of the 90´s by including measurement of satisfaction and loyalty of the consumers in their organization. strategies. This essay presents a study on the factors that influence on the satisfaction and loyalty of the consumers, and is based on national models of satisfaction rates. For this essay, the new Norwegian model was used. During the period of 01/06/03 until 02/14/03, a field research was developed and applied to 230 tourists visiting the city of Natal/RN

Ausência do pai ao longo do desenvolvimento ontogenético e indicadores de desconto de futuro: uma contribuição da psicologia evolucionista

The new Evolutionary Psychology (E. P.) paradigm has been trying to understand how the human beings make their decisions over time regarding the most diverse variables, always bearing in mind that such a cognitive process is due to a complex natural selection process that occurred millions of years ago. One of the main topics discussed by this new paradigm is the issue of parental investment, i.e., the care the parents provide to an offspring at the expense of the investment into a new one. The present work sought to integrate these two topics, trying to understand how some variables modulate the process of decision making in a sample of the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte state. It was investigated the hypothesis that the presence of both parents, along the individual development, could signal a more favorable environment, providing clues to the individual that he could assume a competitive position at the socio-biological market. His decisions, therefore, could be guided by long-term investments with aims to obtain more robust rewards. On the contrary, those who has suffered for some moment the absence of one the parents could develop theirselves in a not so competitive way, starting to choose immediate benefits - but lesser ones -, since the future would be less predictable due to their worse development conditions. This study involved 152 individuals from three higher education institutions, one of them being public and the others being private ones. In the results found, there was no difference between children of coupled parents and children of deceased or divorced parents concerning discount rates. The levels of hopelessness did not affect the discount rates of children of single parents when compared to children of coupled parents. Not having one of the parents because of divorce made the child to tend to present lower scores in the domain of social relations of WHOQOL - Bref, whilst the absence of the father by death made the scores lower in the domain of environment. The results indicate that loosing one of the parents along the development influences the individual's quality of life perception, but the measurement method of future discounting rates by means of financial choices is not sensitive to this variation

Ensino superior em Turismo: uma análise da relação dos cursos acadêmicos de Turismo da cidade do Natal-RN e o mercado de trabalho na percepção dos egressos dos anos de 2009 e 2010

The process of development of any area is closely linked to teaching and research, and in Tourism it is not different. Thus, in this area in which service is one of the factors intrinsically related to its success , it is observed the need for people with deep and critical training in the various aspects of this activity acting in this sector. However, we can see the existence of some differences between what is offered by the academy from what is required by the market. Therefore, the objective of this research is to verify the relationship between higher education in Tourism and labor market through the perception of the bachelor in this area, graduated in Natal-RN, since it is the tourismologist who makes the link between this two fields. To know the perception of these tourismologists, it was necessary to apply a questionnaire to those ones graduated in the years 2009 and 2010. In accordance with the aim of this study, this research was exploratory-descriptive. Related to the technical procedures, it was a documentary, literature and field research. To have it analyzed, some qualitative and quantitative techniques were applied according to our specific objectives and the types of data collected, such as: content analysis, factorial analysis to synthesize the information and identify the basic dimensions that represent the different variables studied, the standard deviation to verify the variation of the responses in some items and the correlation technique that allows the analysis of the relationship between two variables. In response to the objectives proposed here, we could finally conclude that: the syllabuses of these courses are too general and the graduates themselves consider them so. It was diagnosed that the graduates 1) are mostly female, 2) a very small part of them is working in the area that they are graduated in, and 3) not all of them receive satisfactory wages which contributes to having a negative view of their degree course. Moreover, the educational institution where they studied was not a decisive factor to get a job. It was still diagnosed that most part of them do not have positive perceptions when thinking about the future of their careers as bachelors in Tourism. Many of them, including, if it was possible to change something in their careers so far, they could have chosen another college degree. It was found that, although there is a negative perception about their professional future, almost half of them believe that the course met the needs of the market. However, those ones that are not working have a more positive point of view related to the applicability of higher education. On the other hand, the other ones who already worked in this area have a more negative perception about it and do not believe that the course meets the market's needs. In summary, this study allowed the understanding of the existence of some gaps that exist between higher education in Tourism and the market needs, professionally speaking, thus contributing to the spreading of ideas on that subject for teachers, researchers and the current and future students of the area.