Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Eficiência e razão de hedge: uma análise dos mercados futuro brasileiros de boi, café, etanol, milho e soja

This research aims to investigate the Hedge Efficiency and Optimal Hedge Ratio for the future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol, corn and soybean. This paper uses the Optimal Hedge Ratio and Hedge Effectiveness through multivariate GARCH models with error correction, attempting to the possible phenomenon of Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period. The Optimal Hedge Ratio must be bigger in the intercrop period due to the uncertainty related to a possible supply shock (LAZZARINI, 2010). Among the future contracts studied in this research, the coffee, ethanol and soybean contracts were not object of this phenomenon investigation, yet. Furthermore, the corn and ethanol contracts were not object of researches which deal with Dynamic Hedging Strategy. This paper distinguishes itself for including the GARCH model with error correction, which it was never considered when the possible Optimal Hedge Ratio differential during the crop and intercrop period were investigated. The commodities quotation were used as future price in the market future of BM&FBOVESPA and as spot market, the CEPEA index, in the period from May 2010 to June 2013 to cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and to August 2012 to soybean, with daily frequency. Similar results were achieved for all the commodities. There is a long term relationship among the spot market and future market, bicausality and the spot market and future market of cattle, coffee, ethanol and corn, and unicausality of the future price of soybean on spot price. The Optimal Hedge Ratio was estimated from three different strategies: linear regression by MQO, BEKK-GARCH diagonal model, and BEKK-GARCH diagonal with intercrop dummy. The MQO regression model, pointed out the Hedge inefficiency, taking into consideration that the Optimal Hedge presented was too low. The second model represents the strategy of dynamic hedge, which collected time variations in the Optimal Hedge. The last Hedge strategy did not detect Optimal Hedge Ratio differential between the crop and intercrop period, therefore, unlikely what they expected, the investor do not need increase his/her investment in the future market during the intercrop

Novas fronteiras petrolíferas no Brasil : uma análise da necessidade de nova regulamentação da área do pré-sal sob a ótica constitucional

The Oil industry in Brazil has gone through several stages during the economical, political and social historical process. However, the significative changes have happened in the last fifteen years, due to market opening arising from the relaxation of the state monopoly over the Oil deposits and its derivatives. The edition of the Constitutional Amendment #9, changing the first paragraph of the 177th item of the Federal Constitution, marked the end of a stiffness about the monopoly that the Brazilian state kept in relation to the exploration and research of Oil and Gas. The economical order was fundamental to actualize the idea contained in the #9 Amendment, since its contents has the power to set up measures to be adopted by public power in order to organize the economical relations from a social viewpoint. The new brazilian Oil scenery, called pre-salt, presents itself in a way to amaze the economical markets, in addition to creating a new perspective to the social sector. This work will identify, in this new scenario, the need for change in the legal system. Nevertheless, this subject must not be treated in a thoughtless way: being an exhaustible good, we shall not forget that the future generations also must benefit from the exploration of natural resources recently discovered. The settlement of a new regulatory mark, including the change in the concession contract model to production and sharing is one of the suggested solutions as a bill in the National Congress, in an attempt to ensure the sovereignty of the nation. The constitutionality of a new regulatory mark is questioned, starting from an analysis of the state monopoly, grounding the comprehnsions in the brazilian constitutions, the relevance of the creation of Petrobras for self-assertion of the state about the monopoly of Oil and derivatives, and its posture after the Constitutional Amendment nº 9 (1995), when a company stops having control of the state monopoly, beginning to compete in a fairly way with other companies. The market opening and private initiative are emphasized from the viewpoint of the Constitutional Principles of the Economical and Social Order. The relaxation of the monopoly regarding the exploratory activity in the Federal Constitution doesn't deprive from the Union the ownerships of underground goods, enabling to this federal entity to contract, directly or by concession of exploration of goods, to state-owned or private companies. The existing oil in the pre-salt layer transforms the scenario from very high risk to low risk, which gives the Union the possibility of defining another way of exploring this resources in the best interests of the Public Administration

Competição e regulamentação no transporte de passageiros: Um estúdio no transporte rodoviário intermunicipal

The objective of this research is the verification of the competition in the intecity market, after the entrance of new competitors (vans and microbus) regulated and clandestine. For verification of this new view was effected one research of documentary character for the knowledge of the regulation and exploratory character of the system Natal - territory of the Seridó, for thus in making will know this problematic, well as its characteristics, attractivenesses and development of the territory of the Seridó, and its link with the Capital (Natal). Later, through a descriptive exploratory research of the type survey with the passengers to know as these are being taken care and its satisfaction in relation to the regulated companies. With the drivers if focus effected one group, and with the staff of the of sale ticket a research survey, aiming at to know the strategies used for the only company of bus that takes care of the territory of the Seridó, the implantation of these and the consequence of the user. In accordance with the generic tipologia of Porter and its strategies, were perceived that the bus company adopted the strategy of price leadership being competitive, using to advantage its bigger space in the market, already vans and the microbuses with its limited participation bet in a strategy of "differentiation" in its service, effecting faster trips and in the strategy of "approach" we find the not regulated services earn the service to the taste of the user

Ausência do pai ao longo do desenvolvimento ontogenético e indicadores de desconto de futuro: uma contribuição da psicologia evolucionista

The new Evolutionary Psychology (E. P.) paradigm has been trying to understand how the human beings make their decisions over time regarding the most diverse variables, always bearing in mind that such a cognitive process is due to a complex natural selection process that occurred millions of years ago. One of the main topics discussed by this new paradigm is the issue of parental investment, i.e., the care the parents provide to an offspring at the expense of the investment into a new one. The present work sought to integrate these two topics, trying to understand how some variables modulate the process of decision making in a sample of the city of Natal, Rio Grande do Norte state. It was investigated the hypothesis that the presence of both parents, along the individual development, could signal a more favorable environment, providing clues to the individual that he could assume a competitive position at the socio-biological market. His decisions, therefore, could be guided by long-term investments with aims to obtain more robust rewards. On the contrary, those who has suffered for some moment the absence of one the parents could develop theirselves in a not so competitive way, starting to choose immediate benefits - but lesser ones -, since the future would be less predictable due to their worse development conditions. This study involved 152 individuals from three higher education institutions, one of them being public and the others being private ones. In the results found, there was no difference between children of coupled parents and children of deceased or divorced parents concerning discount rates. The levels of hopelessness did not affect the discount rates of children of single parents when compared to children of coupled parents. Not having one of the parents because of divorce made the child to tend to present lower scores in the domain of social relations of WHOQOL - Bref, whilst the absence of the father by death made the scores lower in the domain of environment. The results indicate that loosing one of the parents along the development influences the individual's quality of life perception, but the measurement method of future discounting rates by means of financial choices is not sensitive to this variation

Ensino superior em Turismo: uma análise da relação dos cursos acadêmicos de Turismo da cidade do Natal-RN e o mercado de trabalho na percepção dos egressos dos anos de 2009 e 2010

The process of development of any area is closely linked to teaching and research, and in Tourism it is not different. Thus, in this area in which service is one of the factors intrinsically related to its success , it is observed the need for people with deep and critical training in the various aspects of this activity acting in this sector. However, we can see the existence of some differences between what is offered by the academy from what is required by the market. Therefore, the objective of this research is to verify the relationship between higher education in Tourism and labor market through the perception of the bachelor in this area, graduated in Natal-RN, since it is the tourismologist who makes the link between this two fields. To know the perception of these tourismologists, it was necessary to apply a questionnaire to those ones graduated in the years 2009 and 2010. In accordance with the aim of this study, this research was exploratory-descriptive. Related to the technical procedures, it was a documentary, literature and field research. To have it analyzed, some qualitative and quantitative techniques were applied according to our specific objectives and the types of data collected, such as: content analysis, factorial analysis to synthesize the information and identify the basic dimensions that represent the different variables studied, the standard deviation to verify the variation of the responses in some items and the correlation technique that allows the analysis of the relationship between two variables. In response to the objectives proposed here, we could finally conclude that: the syllabuses of these courses are too general and the graduates themselves consider them so. It was diagnosed that the graduates 1) are mostly female, 2) a very small part of them is working in the area that they are graduated in, and 3) not all of them receive satisfactory wages which contributes to having a negative view of their degree course. Moreover, the educational institution where they studied was not a decisive factor to get a job. It was still diagnosed that most part of them do not have positive perceptions when thinking about the future of their careers as bachelors in Tourism. Many of them, including, if it was possible to change something in their careers so far, they could have chosen another college degree. It was found that, although there is a negative perception about their professional future, almost half of them believe that the course met the needs of the market. However, those ones that are not working have a more positive point of view related to the applicability of higher education. On the other hand, the other ones who already worked in this area have a more negative perception about it and do not believe that the course meets the market's needs. In summary, this study allowed the understanding of the existence of some gaps that exist between higher education in Tourism and the market needs, professionally speaking, thus contributing to the spreading of ideas on that subject for teachers, researchers and the current and future students of the area.