Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Competição espacial no mercado de revenda da gasolina: uma análise nas principais cidades do Rio Grande do Norte

This study aims to analyze the relationship between average price with the concentration in the markets (municipalities) in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, is using a little tool applied to the Brazilian market is the spatial econometric model. A data base contains all the stations of the major cities in the state of Rio Grande do Norte and includes 142 observations on stations was used. Theoretical models predict the relationship between the number of competitors in a market and the average price; these theoretical models include: the monopolistic competition of Perloff and Salop (1985), and the search-theoretic, of Carlson and McAfee (1983) and Varian (1980). The empirical results showed that a higher density within a geographic area is associated with a lower average price, thus converging with the monopolistic competition model and with the search-theoretic of Carlson and McAfee (1983). The parameters varied little with the inclusion / exclusion of control variables, showing the robustness of them.

Regulação do livre acesso no transporte de gás natural à luz da ordem econômica da Constituição de 1988

In the middle of modern social changes produced by globalization and capitalism, several markets have changed. States have left the direct coordination of these markets (chiefly public utility sector in the form of monopolies), introducing regulation in order to promote competition. These changes have affected natural gas industry by promoting competition as a key factor to the development and the increase of firms in this market. The regulatory reform of natural gas industry ocurred in EUA and Europe Union and it has produced its first results. In Brazilian context, Constitutional Amendment nbr. 09 and Federal Law nbr. 9.478/97 ( Petroleum Law ) opened the natural gas market to a broad range of private economic agents and they finished the monopoly over the industry before managed by Petrobras. The new regulatory framework of Brazilian natural gas industry has designed competition as a central element to the new form of managment of business and contractual relationships of this industry. Among the regulatory instruments, open access regulation in natural gas pipelines is directed to promote competition. The questions arised about its implementation in Brazilian context are studied in the present work, in which it is discussed the constitutional rules and principles are to be applied to the open access regulation within the theme of statal regulation of economy present in constitutional economic order

Um Estudo de Politicas e Práticas do uso do GNV no transporte público urbano do Brasil

The use of Natural Gas Vehicle has had a fast increase lately. However, in order to have a continuous success this Program needs to develop converting devices of Otto-cycle engines, gasoline or alcohol, to the use of NGV (Natural Gas Vehicle) that presents low cost, maintaining the same original development of the vehicle and low level of emissions, considering the PROCONVE rules. Due to the need to diversify the matrix in order to avoid energetic dependence and due to strict pollution control, it has increased in the Brazilian market the number of vehicles converted to the use of NGV. The recent regulation of the PROCONVE, determining that the converted engines with kits should be submitted to emission testing, comes to reinforce the necessity of the proposed development. Therefore, if we can obtain kits with the characteristics already described, we can reach a major trust in the market and obtain an increase acceptance of the vehicle conversion for NGV. The use of natural gas as vehicle fuel presents several advantages in relation to liquid fuels. It is a vehicle fuel with fewer indexes of emissions when compared to diesel; their combustion gases are less harmful, with a major level of safety than liquid fuels and the market price is quite competitive. The preoccupation that emerges, and the motivation of this project, is to know which are the main justifications for such technology, well accepted in other countries, with a low index or emission, with a high level of safety, where its maintenance becomes low, reminding that for this it is necessary that this technology has to be used properly, and once available in the market will not motivate interest in the urban transportation companies in Brazil, in research centers in general. Therefore this project exists to show the society in a general way the current vision of the main governmental factors, of the national research centers and of the private companies concerning the use of natural gas vehicles in urban transport vehicles, in order to give a major reliability to the population as well as to motivate national market competitiveness with a low cost and reliable product and to enrich the national technology

Extração e Representação de Conhecimento de Séries Temporais de Demanda de Energia Elétrica Usando TSKR

The opening of the Brazilian market of electricity and competitiveness between companies in the energy sector make the search for useful information and tools that will assist in decision making activities, increase by the concessionaires. An important source of knowledge for these utilities is the time series of energy demand. The identification of behavior patterns and description of events become important for the planning execution, seeking improvements in service quality and financial benefits. This dissertation presents a methodology based on mining and representation tools of time series, in order to extract knowledge that relate series of electricity demand in various substations connected of a electric utility. The method exploits the relationship of duration, coincidence and partial order of events in multi-dimensionals time series. To represent the knowledge is used the language proposed by Mörchen (2005) called Time Series Knowledge Representation (TSKR). We conducted a case study using time series of energy demand of 8 substations interconnected by a ring system, which feeds the metropolitan area of Goiânia-GO, provided by CELG (Companhia Energética de Goiás), responsible for the service of power distribution in the state of Goiás (Brazil). Using the proposed methodology were extracted three levels of knowledge that describe the behavior of the system studied, representing clearly the system dynamics, becoming a tool to assist planning activities

Jambolão (Syzygium cumini) desidratado por liofilização e secagem em leito de jorro: avaliação do impacto do processo de secagem e caracterização do potencial funcional do produto final

Tropical fruits have been extensively studied due to their functional potential attributed to the presence of natural bioactive compounds. The exotic fruit jambolan (Syzygium cumini) has been reported for its appreciable amount of phenolic compounds, especially anthocyanins and antioxidant capacity. Nevertheless, there are hardly any derived jambolan products in the Brazilian market. In addition to that, considerable volumes of fruit are lost due to their high perishability. Dried fruits have become an important fruit market segment due to its weight and volume reduction and decreased transportation and storage costs. Thus, this study evaluated the jambolan pulp submitted to spouted bed drying (JLJ) and lyophilization (JLI), besides assessing the drying impact on the final product. In order to achieve this, the process performance was calculated and compared, as well the physicochemical and bioactive characteristics (moisture, water activity (aw), solubility, hygroscopicity, density, color, structure through images obtained by scanning electron microscopy (SEM), concentration of bioactive (total phenolic compounds (TPC), anthocyanins, proanthocyanidins and ascorbic acid) and antioxidant activity. The results showed drying efficiency higher than 60% for both products and that JLJ group showed higher moisture and water activity when compared to the JLI group (p<0.05). The two types of drying were able to produce stable final product in the microbiological point of view, given that both showed aw < 0.6. The final products exhibited high solubility (73.7 to 81.6%) and low hygroscopicity (9.8 to 11.6%), desirable characteristics for dehydrated foods. Despite the losses caused by drying, the dried jambolan pulp by both methods showed high TPC (468.6 to 534.0 mg GAE/100g dm), anthocyanins (from 491.9 to 673.4 mg. eq. cyanidin-3-glicoside/100g dm), proanthocyanidins (66.9 to 76.6 mg QTE/g dm) and ascorbic acid (156.4 to 186.8 mg/100 g dm). Taken together, the results of this study reveal spouted dried and freeze dried jambolan pulp as bioactive-rich natural products with suitable physicochemical and functional characteristics to be used as food ingredients. The data also demonstrate the drying techniques as rational strategies for the exploitation of the exotic fruit jambolan

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Paradigma constitucional brasileiro da livre concorrência e da defesa do consumidor face às estruturas de poder no mercado

The Federal Constitution of 1988, when taking care of the economical order, denotes special concern in the abuses of the economical power and the disloyal competition. The mark to mediate of all this is, in fact, the defense and the consumer's protection, once this is final addressee of whatever if it puts at the consumption market. The coming of the Law 8.078/90, Code of Protection and Defense of the Consumer, inaugurates a time of effective concern with the homogeneous individual interests originating from of the consumption relationships. In this point, the focus of main to face of the present work lives, in other words, the protection of the right to the individual property, especially manifests in the exercise of the trade freedom that keeps direct relationship with the respective social function the one that is destined. The code of the consumer's defense doesn't just take care of this, but also of the other star of the relationships of the consumption. When affirming in the interruption VI of the art. 4th that the national politics of those relationships, finds ballast in the prohibition and repression efficient of all of the abuses committed in the consumption relationships, keeping inherent relationship-causality in the economical order, sculpted for the article 170 in the Constitution of 1988. In the generic plan, the mark of the present work is to question concerning the limits of the trade freedom and previsible collisions with protection norms and the consumer's defense, as well as factual convergences of those small systems, especially in what he/she refers to the innate interests to the suppliers. In the specific plan, we aspirated to identify the protection device-commands to the actors of the trade relationship, capable to guarantee the free competition in a global economy of market, seeking especially the Well-being, for soon afterwards, in an analytical perspective, to discover the possible applications that it holds the Federal Constitution, in headquarters of economical freedoms. It was observed that the consumer today doesn't need only of laws that their needs, fruit of the vulnerability that it is him/her meditate innate. He/she lacks, yes, of effective mechanisms that prevent lesions that can be them impinged by the suppliers at the time in that you/they are useful to repair the damages when happened, punishing the author of the damage

Seleção conjugal e as mulheres re-casadas no mercado de casamentos em uma comunidade de baixa renda no nordeste brasileiro

A presente pesquisa partiu de uma revisão teórica dos assuntos relacionados à seleção sexual proposta por Charles Darwin, passando para evolução dos sistemas e da psicologia do acasalamento humano. Os estudos práticos, divididos em dois momentos, foram coletados numa comunidade litorânea de baixa renda no nordeste brasileiro, na qual as mulheres tiveram pelo menos duas uniões estáveis até a data da coleta, no ano de 2008. Nas primeiras análises, foram contempladas as expectativas dessas mulheres em relação aos atributos dos parceiros. E posteriormente, o perfil e valor das mesmas entraram em perspectiva. De uma forma geral, foi constatado que as mulheres, no primeiro casamento, de fato realizam matrimônios com parceiros mais parecidos com o que consideram ideal do que os posteriores. Assim como as segundas e subseqüentes uniões apresentam uma ligeira queda no valor (no mercado de casamentos) desses homens quando comparados aos primeiros companheiros levando em consideração indicadores biosocioeconômicos como idade, escolaridade e renda (status socioeconômico).

Desempenho de analistas sell-side no mercado de ações brasileiro

The purpose of this study was to analyze the behavior of Sell-Side analysts and analysts propose a classification, considering the performance of the price forecasts and recom- mendations (sell-hold-buy) in the Brazilian stock market. For this, the first step was to analyze the consensus of analysts to understand the importance of this collective interven- tion in the market; the second was to analyze the analysts individually to understand how improve their analysis in time. Third was to understand how are the main methods of ranking used in markets. Finally, propose a form of classification that reflects the previous aspects discussed. To investigate the hypotheses proposed in the study were used linear models for panel to capture elements in time. The data of price forecasts and analyst recommendations individually and consensus, in the period 2005-2013 were obtained from Bloomberg R ○ . The main results were: (i) superior performance of consensus recommen- dations, compared with the individual analyzes; (ii) associating the number of analysts issuing recommendations with improved accuracy allows supposing that this number may be associated with increased consensus strength and hence accuracy; (iii) the anchoring effect of the analysts consensus revisions makes his predictions are biased, overvaluating the assets; (iv) analysts need to have greater caution in times of economic turbulence, noting also foreign markets such as the USA. For these may result changes in bias between optimism and pessimism; (v) effects due to changes in bias, as increased pessimism can cause excessive increase in purchase recommendations number. In this case, analysts can should be more cautious in analysis, mainly for consistency between recommendation and the expected price; (vi) the experience of the analyst with the asset economic sector and the asset contributes to the improvement of forecasts, however, the overall experience showed opposite evidence; (vii) the optimism associated with the overall experience, over time, shows a similar behavior to an excess of confidence, which could cause reduction of accuracy; (viii) the conflicting effect of general experience between the accuracy and the observed return shows evidence that, over time, the analyst has effects similar to the endowment bias on assets, which would result in a conflict analysis of recommendations and forecasts ; (ix) despite the focus on fewer sectors contribute to the quality of accuracy, the same does not occur with the focus on assets. So it is possible that analysts may have economies of scale when cover more assets within the same industry; and finally, (x) was possible to develop a proposal for classification analysts to consider both returns and the consistency of these predictions, called Analysis coefficient. This ranking resulted better results, considering the return / standard deviation.

Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda linha do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Mercado de trabalho, ocupações e rendimentos: a Região Metropolitana de Natal na década de 1990

The aim of this study is the labour market at Natal Metropolitan Region with emphasis in occupations and incomes that took place at the nineties. The definition of its chronological boundaries passed by verification of existence of evident socio-spatial impacts for output, occupation and income in national economy, with rebounds in all national territory, conditioned by institutional and socio-economical transformations which marked Brazilian insertion to capital flows and commodities globalization movement that took place at the cited decade. It has been shown that such impacts did not distributed themselves equally between diverse spatial levels (great regions, federate unities, municipalities) because of historical specificities in each place in terms of output structures and organization of distinct social agents. Having as its basis the Marxist perspective, it tackled theoretically occupations and incomes, transformations in labour universe occurred at world level, mainly in most urbanized areas, and following that to focus changes occurred in Brazilian society related to the search for competitive insertion in global economy during the period regarded. Special attention was gave to Natal Metropolitan Region, because it was historically a concentration area for investments, productive structure, people, occupations and incomes generated/appropriated in Rio Grande do Norte State. The basic data sources for research were the demographic Census (micro data) made by the Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) intending to present the structure and the labour market dynamics, having as basis: 1) traditional indicators about labour market; 2) sectors of economic activities and 3) social positions and classes segments. One of the purposes is the demonstration that occupations and incomes keep relation with the restructuring which occurred in each specific sector during the period. Other purpose is to make explicit the factors which bear the participation of distinct segments in production or service execution that make possible the different participation in income distribution. Results are revealing the increasin precariousness in labour market, enlargement of occupations in tertiary sector and greater concentration of average incomes in the social segments which were owners of the greatest capital allowances between residents in Natal Metropolitan Region during the nineties

Entre o mercado e a construção social: uma análise da experiência da implantação doPRONAF-infraestrutura e PRONAT nos territórios do Mato Grande-RN e sertão do Apodi-RN (1997 - 2010)

Analyzes the development experience in the Territories of Mato Grande and Sertão do Apodi in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, evaluating the actions of the National Program for Strengthening Family Agriculture, specifically the line of infrastructure (PRONAF-INFRA), and the National Program for Sustainable Development of Rural Territories (PRONAT) in these territories. Summarizes the various rural development approaches and takes the theoretical assumptions of territorial development, the concept of constructed territory and market-plan territory, further the cycle model to analyze public policies selected these experiences. Thus, we propose to test the hypothesis that most of the actions implemented would lead to the formation of market-plan territories, in other words, perceived only as a platform for the presentation of projects. The literature and documents, combined with case studies, interviews and direct observation of the meetings of committees, showed that, despite two boards are under the same laws, rules and formal regulations, have clear differences when considering the theory and concepts that were used as reference. The Apodi s territory is closer to a constructed space thus the search for a broader agenda, more autonomous and more appropriate to the reality experienced by local actors. On other hand the Territory of Mato Grande had the characteristics of a market-plan territory more present. As the result, the territory of Sertão do Apodi accesses not only as part of a greater number of policies and funding sources, ensuring a greater and more diverse investment volume than the territory of Mato Grande. Despite these differences, studies have shown that territorial boards surveyed are still far from becoming the main forum for managing the development from conception planning socially constructed. Showed, finally, that territorial development strategy is relevant, but requires a long walk and a deep and continuous learning process to be successfully implemented in rural areas of Northeast Brazil

Avaliação preliminar da viabilidade de produção in vitro de um isolado brasileiro de baculovírus Spodoptera frugiperda MNPV

In vivo production of viral biopesticides is the major source of viral insecticides currently in the marketplace. However, this system presents limitations during production scale-up. For the Spodoptera frugiperda nucleopolyhedrovirus (SfMNPV), the insect used for replication has cannibalistic characteristics, thus production is even more difficult. Insect cells are commonly used for in vitro baculovirus production. Most of these cell lines are derived from Lepidoptera species. The Sf21 cell line is derived from Spodoptera frugiperda caterpillar ovarian tissue, and its clonal isolate Sf9 has been used for biopesticide production due to its ease of growth in suspension cultures. In this work, the in vitro production capabilities of a Brazilian SfMNPV isolate obtained from cornfields was evaluated. Comparison of polyhedra production was carried out using both Sf21 and Sf9 cells, based on volumetric and specific yields. Both cell lines were cultivated in Hyclone medium supplemented with different fetal bovine serum concentrations (2,5 and 5%). The best results were obtained using Sf9 cells supplemented with 5% serum. These results were further confirmed quantitively through kinetic parameter estimation for both cells lines and different serum concentrations. After seven successive passages, this system still presented high specific polyhedra production