39 resultados para Métodos de medição tempo
em Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Norte(UFRN)
Resumo:
Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model
Resumo:
Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model
Resumo:
A duração das operações pode representar um fator importante para uma série de complicações pós-operatórias, especialmente para os indivíduos idosos. Objetivo: estudar a repercussão nos pulmões, de operações de diferentes tempos de duração. Métodos: Vinte ratos idosos (18 meses) e 20 jovens (3 meses) foram separados aleatoriamente em grupos A e B respectivamente. Os grupos foram divididos em A1, A2, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3 and B4, com cinco ratos cada. Os animais foram anestesiados com pentobarbital (20mg/Kg) intraperitoneal. No subgrupo A1 e B1 foi feita operação com duração de 30 minutos, nos grupos A2 and B2 60 minutos, em A3 and B3 a operação foi feita em 120 minuto e os animais A4 e B4 (controle) não foram operados. O procedimento consistiu de laparotomia xifopubiana que foi aberta e fechada tantas vezes quanto necessário para atingir os tempos estipulados. Após o quinto dia pós-operatório os animais foram mortos com superdose de anestésico e biópsias de ambos os pulmões foram realizadas. Os achados histopatológicos foram transformados em escores. Resultados: os grupos de ratos jovens atingiram os escores: A1= escore 6, A2=11; A3=28; A4=5. Os ratos idosos tiveram os escores: B1=12; B2=34; B3=51 e B4=6. A análise estatística revelou diferenças significantes entre os escores dos grupos A e B. Conclusões: O tempo prolongado nas operações realizadas em ratos idosos contribuiu para o aparecimento de alterações pulmonares de modo significante. Quanto maior o tempo operatório, mais intensas e mais freqüentes as complicações pulmonares
Resumo:
Para avaliar os efeitos de diferentes tempos de pré-condicionamento isquêmico (IPC) em translocação bacteriana intestinal (BT). MÉTODOS: Trinta ratos Wistar pesando 280 ± 27g foram divididos em cinco grupos. No grupo IV (n = 6), a laparotomia foi realizada e a artéria mesentérica superior foi obstruído por um microclampe atraumática durante 30 minutos. Nos quatro grupos de pré-condicionamento (n = 6 cada) antes dos 30 minutos de isquemia-reperfusão (I / R), os ratos foram submetidos a IPC para duas, cinco, dez e 15 minutos, seguido pelo mesmo momento da reperfusão. A fim de avaliar se o tempo de pré-condicionamento influenciaram o surgimento de translocação bacteriana, as amostras de nódulos linfáticos mesentéricos, fígado e baço foram colhidas em condições estéreis, 24 horas após os procedimentos para a quantificação de unidades formadoras de colónias de bactérias por grama de tecido (CFU / g). O sangue foi recolhido para a medição de citoquinas. RESULTADOS: No grupo I / R, o total de CFU / g em gânglios linfáticos mesentéricos, baço, fígado, bem como o soro de TNF-a, IL-1A e IL-6 foram significativamente mais elevados do que nos outros grupos (p <0,05). Pré-condicionamento por 15 minutos significativamente atenuada BT e citocinas séricas quando comparado a outros períodos de pré-condicionamento (p <0,05). CONCLUSÃO: Nossos dados sugerem que o pré-condicionamento como um fator chave para reduzir a translocação bacteriana intestinal em I / R. Numa escala de dois a 15 minutos, o melhor tempo de pré-condicionamento isquémico pela atenuação da translocação bacteriana foi de 15 minutos
Resumo:
A duração das operações pode representar um fator importante para uma série de complicações pós-operatórias, especialmente para os indivíduos idosos. Objetivo: estudar a repercussão nos pulmões, de operações de diferentes tempos de duração. Métodos: Vinte ratos idosos (18 meses) e 20 jovens (3 meses) foram separados aleatoriamente em grupos A e B respectivamente. Os grupos foram divididos em A1, A2, A3, A4, B1, B2, B3 and B4, com cinco ratos cada. Os animais foram anestesiados com pentobarbital (20mg/Kg) intraperitoneal. No subgrupo A1 e B1 foi feita operação com duração de 30 minutos, nos grupos A2 and B2 60 minutos, em A3 and B3 a operação foi feita em 120 minuto e os animais A4 e B4 (controle) não foram operados. O procedimento consistiu de laparotomia xifopubiana que foi aberta e fechada tantas vezes quanto necessário para atingir os tempos estipulados. Após o quinto dia pós-operatório os animais foram mortos com superdose de anestésico e biópsias de ambos os pulmões foram realizadas. Os achados histopatológicos foram transformados em escores. Resultados: os grupos de ratos jovens atingiram os escores: A1= escore 6, A2=11; A3=28; A4=5. Os ratos idosos tiveram os escores: B1=12; B2=34; B3=51 e B4=6. A análise estatística revelou diferenças significantes entre os escores dos grupos A e B. Conclusões: O tempo prolongado nas operações realizadas em ratos idosos contribuiu para o aparecimento de alterações pulmonares de modo significante. Quanto maior o tempo operatório, mais intensas e mais freqüentes as complicações pulmonares
Resumo:
In the search for products that act as corrosion inhibitors and do not cause environmental, impact the use of plant extracts as corrosion inhibitors is becoming a promising alternative. In this work the efficiency of polar extracts (ethanol extracts) obtained from the plants Anacardium occidentale Linn (AO) and Phyllantus amarus Schum. & Thonn (PA) as corrosion inhibitors were evaluated in different concentrations. For that AO and PA extracts were solubilized in the microemulsion systems (SME) containing saponified coconut oil as surfactant (SME -OCS and SME-OCS-1) in saline (NaCl 3,5 %) solution, which was also used as electrolyte. Both SME-OCS and SME-OCS-1 were characterized by surface tension and viscosity methods showing a Newtonian fluid behavior. The SME-OCS and SME-OCS-1 systems satisfactorily solubilized the polar extracts AO and PA with measurements carried out by ultraviolet spectroscopy. The measurements of corrosion inhibition efficiencies were performed by the electrochemical linear polarization resistance (LPR) technique as well as weight loss, on the surface of AISI 1020 carbon steel. The maximum corrosion inhibition efficiencies were determined by extrapolation of Tafel plots, showing the following values: 95,6 % for the system SME-OCS-AO, 98,9 % for the system SME-OCS-AO-1 and 93,4 % for the system SME-OCS-PA
Resumo:
The transport of fluids through pipes is used in the oil industry, being the pipelines an important link in the logistics flow of fluids. However, the pipelines suffer deterioration in their walls caused by several factors which may cause loss of fluids to the environment, justifying the investment in techniques and methods of leak detection to minimize fluid loss and environmental damage. This work presents the development of a supervisory module in order to inform to the operator the leakage in the pipeline monitored in the shortest time possible, in order that the operator log procedure that entails the end of the leak. This module is a component of a system designed to detect leaks in oil pipelines using sonic technology, wavelets and neural networks. The plant used in the development and testing of the module presented here was the system of tanks of LAMP, and its LAN, as monitoring network. The proposal consists of, basically, two stages. Initially, assess the performance of the communication infrastructure of the supervisory module. Later, simulate leaks so that the DSP sends information to the supervisory performs the calculation of the location of leaks and indicate to which sensor the leak is closer, and using the system of tanks of LAMP, capture the pressure in the pipeline monitored by piezoresistive sensors, this information being processed by the DSP and sent to the supervisory to be presented to the user in real time
Resumo:
Organizations are seeking new ideas, tools and methods aiming to improve management process and performance. On the other hand, system performance measurement needs to portray organizational changes and provide managers with a set of true and more appropriate information for the decision-making process. This work aims to propose a performance measurement system in the academic field regarding Research, Development and Innovation (RDI) in the oil and gas industry. The research performed a bibliographic review in a descriptive exploratory manner. A field research was conducted with an expert focus group in order to gather new indicators. As for the validation of these indicators, a survey with experienced professional was also realized. The research surveyed four segments in and outside of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte-Brazil such as oil and gas project coordinators, staff at Academic Planning Offices, FUNPEC employees as well as coordinators from Petrobrás. The performance measuring system created from this study features three interrelated performance indicators pointed out as: process indicators, outcome indicators and global indicators. The proposal includes performance indicators that seek to establish more appropriate strategies for effective institution management. It might help policy making of university-industry interaction policies
Resumo:
Barra do Camaratuba belongs to Mataraca city, nearby the boarder between Paraíba and Rio Grande do Norte states. It was the chosen community to develop this research, objectifying to study the set of practical of the cultural manifestations and the implications of the local tourist activity, considering the cultural dynamics. We tried to reconstruct stories from the narratives of the oldest inhabitants, natives, among others that they had lived, some how, individual and collective experiences related to the popular tricks and the traditional parties, considering what they speak and imagine about their experiences and its culture. The Lapinha, the Pastoril, the viola s songs, the Balls of Concertina, the João Redondo, the Ox of Kings, the wheel of Coconut were common practical perceivable through the communitarian bonds. Among these manifestations, the only one that resisted for a longer time was the wheel coconut. The São Pedro s fest is another popular manifestation that appears on the current scene like the padroeiro party, while others cultural practical compose the spectacle s scenery. These questions cover many of the narratives of the interviewed ones in the interlaced thing between memory, tourism and tradition. Therefore, we tried to build our research from the memory, participant observation, orality, techniques of the life history, personal depositions, among others basic methods for the reconstruction of a collective memory . Speaking about the past of Barra do Camaratuba is to live again the parties, the blood relations, the terço , the work in the roçados , in the flour house, the fishing, the leisure and the habits of the daily life. In this community, there is the presence of conflicts of social and cultural order, caused for the hegemonic classes that sponsor the parties. In the padroeiro party we perceive that the mercantile logic has started, very recently, to transform the religious factor into an excuse to put into motion the local economy. This way, a community originated from artisan fishers and agriculturists, having the fishing practical as a way of subsistence and the tricks as a reference, they had started to compose a new social picture with the arrival of the others and with the presumption and recent tourist development. We perceive social, environmental and cultural impact transformations, exemplified by a non planned activity or a predatory tourism. The changes will always be pointed and compared with other passing in a sphere of relations lived by the natives, local players and fishers
Resumo:
Este estudio que busca para identificar como la formación de un grupo de profesores experimentados ocurrió, el tener como objetivo para saber el modelo formativo de curso de Pedagogía conveniado con el pasillo de cuidad municipal de Teresina páctico acentuar el educativo en la forma de período supervisado de entrenamiento, para saberlos que habían sido construidos y reconstruidos por medios de learnings continuos de estas noticias para saber que son decurrente del proceso formativo. Para lograr la investigación adentro los dirigimos en la pregunta siguiente: ¿a donde estará eficaz la medida el proceso formativo en la pregunta provoque los cambios cualitativos en el práctico de los profesores, objeto de estudio? Tomando para la base este preguntar, defendimos la tesis de eso que el proceso formativo debe promover cambios cualitativos en práctico el pedagógico y en desarrollo profesional de el colectivo de experimentado profesores. En nosotros todavía los apoyamos, en las cuestiones siguientes de los norteadoras del estudio: 1- ¿Cono el proyecto formativo del departamento de métodos y las técnicas de la técnicas de la educación del UFPI era considerado, en vista del perfil de profesores con el promedio de diez años de experiencia? 2- ¿Cono el proyecto citado contribuye a la cuenta de la elasticidad del necesidades profesionales de los profesores en quienes dice práctico respecto el educativo el período del entrenamiento supervisó elevado a través en servicio? 3- ¿Que obstáculos las dificultades pedagógicas emergen del proceso formativo? Uno esta sobre una investigación que si los rellenos en os parámetros del investigación cualitativa de la matriz del etnográfica, soporte en el método de autobiogáfico, sin, sin embargo, asumís el cono solamente referencia: valorizou desde el punto de vista teórico conceptual y del perspectiva en el paradigma centrado en lo pensamiento de lo profesor. Varios autores fueran consultados para la composición de lo referencial teórico, opción esta que expresa las orientaciones de la línea de la pesquisa Formación y profesionalización docente del Programa de Pós Graduación de la UFRN. Dentre los autores podemos citar: Brzezinski; Freire; García; Gatti; Gauthier; Imbernón; Nóvoa; Nuñez; Perrenoud; Steves; Stenhouse; Schön; Ramalho; Tardif e Zeichner, entre otros. Tomando cono base es a perspectiva, consideramos que la práctica profesional debe ser iluminada por un teoria. Cuando lo profesor se apoya en una referencia su lado profesional gana una consistencia cualitativa e la aprendizaje de los alumnos consiguen niveis deseaveis. Asi, nos apoyamos nos aportes teóricos metodológicos encima citados, para iluminar nuestra relexión sobre nuestro objeto de estudio. La investigación que desarrollada teniendo cono ciudadanos 8 formadoras e 8 profesores pupilas de practico la educativa periodo supervisado del entrenamiento del curso del conveniado Pedagogía. Cono campo de la colección de información, habían estado implicados 7 escuelas de la ciudad, sitio de trabajo de los profesores y la agencia de formadora el UFPI. Los datos recogidos que analizamos habían sido recogidos por medio de cuestionarios, entrevistas biograficas, documentos personales (proyecto de la intervención práctica y diaria del el educativo), comentarios y proyecto del político pedagógico de la agencia formadora. Los resultados confirman que el modele formativo desarrollado práctico adentro el educativo el período supervisado del entrenamiento contribuyo de la manera significativa para avance del profissionalidade de los profesores. Los descubrimientos sugieren, la emergencia de un nuevo perfil de docente, siendo observado la parte de las características ligadas al sexo, edad, tiempo de ejercicio de la docencia, de la formación y de los saberes profesionales adquiridos y construidos en longo del proceso formativo. Lo proceso formativo posibilitó las docente la capacidad de transformación y rompimiento con antiguas practicas tradicionales por uso de nuevas estrategias de acción pedagógica
Resumo:
This thesis describes and analyzes various processes established and practiced by both groups about the socio-cultural objective (action) the measurement and timing, mobilized some socio-historical practices as the use of the gnômon of the sundial and reading and interpretation of movements celestial constellations in cultural contexts such as indigenous communities and fishermen in the state of Pará, Brazil. The Purpose of the study was to describe and analyze the mobilization of such practices in the socio-historical development of matrices for teaching concepts and skills related to geometric angles, similar triangles, symmetry and proportionality in the training of mathematics teachers. The record of the entire history of investigation into the socio-historical practice, the formative action was based on epistemological assumptions of education ethnomathematics proposed by Vergani (2000, 2007) and Ubiratan D'Ambrosio (1986, 1993, 1996, 2001, 2004) and Alain Bishop conceptions about mathematics enculturation. At the end of the study I present my views on the practices of contributions called socio-cultural and historical for school mathematics, to give meaning to the concept formation and teaching of students, especially the implications of Education Ethnomatematics proposed by Vergani (2000) for training of future teachers of mathematics
Resumo:
This work presents a study in quality of health care, with focus on consulting appointment. The main purpose is to define a statistical model and propose a quality grade of the consulting appointment time. The time considered is that from the day the patient get the appointment done to the day the consulting is realized. It is used reliability techniques and functions that has as main characteristic the analysis of data regarding the time of occurrence certain event. It is gathered a random sample of 1743 patients in the appointment system of a University Hospital - the Hospital Universitário Onofre Lopes - of the Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The sample is randomly stratified in terms on clinical specialty. The data were analyzed against the parametric methods of the reliability statistics and the adjustment of the regression model resulted in the Weibull distribution being best fit to data. The quality grade proposed is based in the PAHO criteria for a consulting appointment and result that no clinic got the PAHO quality grade. The quality grade proposed could be used to define priority for improvement and as criteria to quality control
Resumo:
The usual programs for load flow calculation were in general developped aiming the simulation of electric energy transmission, subtransmission and distribution systems. However, the mathematical methods and algorithms used by the formulations were based, in majority, just on the characteristics of the transmittion systems, which were the main concern focus of engineers and researchers. Though, the physical characteristics of these systems are quite different from the distribution ones. In the transmission systems, the voltage levels are high and the lines are generally very long. These aspects contribute the capacitive and inductive effects that appear in the system to have a considerable influence in the values of the interest quantities, reason why they should be taken into consideration. Still in the transmission systems, the loads have a macro nature, as for example, cities, neiborhoods, or big industries. These loads are, generally, practically balanced, what reduces the necessity of utilization of three-phase methodology for the load flow calculation. Distribution systems, on the other hand, present different characteristics: the voltage levels are small in comparison to the transmission ones. This almost annul the capacitive effects of the lines. The loads are, in this case, transformers, in whose secondaries are connected small consumers, in a sort of times, mono-phase ones, so that the probability of finding an unbalanced circuit is high. This way, the utilization of three-phase methodologies assumes an important dimension. Besides, equipments like voltage regulators, that use simultaneously the concepts of phase and line voltage in their functioning, need a three-phase methodology, in order to allow the simulation of their real behavior. For the exposed reasons, initially was developped, in the scope of this work, a method for three-phase load flow calculation in order to simulate the steady-state behaviour of distribution systems. Aiming to achieve this goal, the Power Summation Algorithm was used, as a base for developing the three phase method. This algorithm was already widely tested and approved by researchers and engineers in the simulation of radial electric energy distribution systems, mainly for single-phase representation. By our formulation, lines are modeled in three-phase circuits, considering the magnetic coupling between the phases; but the earth effect is considered through the Carson reduction. It s important to point out that, in spite of the loads being normally connected to the transformer s secondaries, was considered the hypothesis of existence of star or delta loads connected to the primary circuit. To perform the simulation of voltage regulators, a new model was utilized, allowing the simulation of various types of configurations, according to their real functioning. Finally, was considered the possibility of representation of switches with current measuring in various points of the feeder. The loads are adjusted during the iteractive process, in order to match the current in each switch, converging to the measured value specified by the input data. In a second stage of the work, sensibility parameters were derived taking as base the described load flow, with the objective of suporting further optimization processes. This parameters are found by calculating of the partial derivatives of a variable in respect to another, in general, voltages, losses and reactive powers. After describing the calculation of the sensibility parameters, the Gradient Method was presented, using these parameters to optimize an objective function, that will be defined for each type of study. The first one refers to the reduction of technical losses in a medium voltage feeder, through the installation of capacitor banks; the second one refers to the problem of correction of voltage profile, through the instalation of capacitor banks or voltage regulators. In case of the losses reduction will be considered, as objective function, the sum of the losses in all the parts of the system. To the correction of the voltage profile, the objective function will be the sum of the square voltage deviations in each node, in respect to the rated voltage. In the end of the work, results of application of the described methods in some feeders are presented, aiming to give insight about their performance and acuity
Resumo:
The purpose of this study was to develop a pilot plant which the main goal is to emulate a flow peak pressure in a separation vessel. Effect similar that is caused by the production in a slug flow in production wells equipped with the artificial lift method plunger lift. The motivation for its development was the need to test in a plant on a smaller scale, a new technique developed to estimate the gas flow in production wells equipped with plunger lift. To develop it, studies about multiphase flow effects, operation methods of artificial lift in plunger lift wells, industrial instrumentation elements, control valves, vessel sizing separators and measurement systems were done. The methodology used was the definition of process flowcharts, its parameters and how the effects needed would be generated for the success of the experiments. Therefore, control valves, the design and construction of vessels and the acquisition of other equipment used were defined. One of the vessels works as a tank of compressed air that is connected to the separation vessel and generates pulses of gas controlled by a on/off valve. With the emulator system ready, several control experiments were made, being the control of peak flow pressure generation and the flow meter the main experiments, this way, it was confirmed the efficiency of the plant usage in the problem that motivated it. It was concluded that the system is capable of generate effects of flow with peak pressure in a primary separation vessel. Studies such as the estimation of gas flow at the exit of the vessel and several academic studies can be done and tested on a smaller scale and then applied in real plants, avoiding waste of time and money.
Resumo:
Embedded systems are widely spread nowadays. An example is the Digital Signal Processor (DSP), which is a high processing power device. This work s contribution consist of exposing DSP implementation of the system logic for detecting leaks in real time. Among the various methods of leak detection available today this work uses a technique based on the pipe pressure analysis and usesWavelet Transform and Neural Networks. In this context, the DSP, in addition to do the pressure signal digital processing, also communicates to a Global Positioning System (GPS), which helps in situating the leak, and to a SCADA, sharing information. To ensure robustness and reliability in communication between DSP and SCADA the Modbus protocol is used. As it is a real time application, special attention is given to the response time of each of the tasks performed by the DSP. Tests and leak simulations were performed using the structure of Laboratory of Evaluation of Measurement in Oil (LAMP), at Federal University of Rio Grande do Norte (UFRN)