Estimativas de mortalidade para a região nordeste do Brasil em 2010: uma associação do método demográfico equação geral de balanceamento, com o estimador bayesiano empírico

One of the greatest challenges of demography, nowadays, is to obtain estimates of mortality, in a consistent manner, mainly in small areas. The lack of this information, hinders public health actions and leads to impairment of quality of classification of deaths, generating concern on the part of demographers and epidemiologists in obtaining reliable statistics of mortality in the country. In this context, the objective of this work is to obtain estimates of deaths adjustment factors for correction of adult mortality, by States, meso-regions and age groups in the northeastern region, in 2010. The proposal is based on two lines of observation: a demographic one and a statistical one, considering also two areas of coverage in the States of the Northeast region, the meso-regions, as larger areas and counties, as small areas. The methodological principle is to use the General Equation and Balancing demographic method or General Growth Balance to correct the observed deaths, in larger areas (meso-regions) of the states, since they are less prone to breakage of methodological assumptions. In the sequence, it will be applied the statistical empirical Bayesian estimator method, considering as sum of deaths in the meso-regions, the death value corrected by the demographic method, and as reference of observation of smaller area, the observed deaths in small areas (counties). As results of this combination, a smoothing effect on the degree of coverage of deaths is obtained, due to the association with the empirical Bayesian Estimator, and the possibility of evaluating the degree of coverage of deaths by age groups at counties, meso-regions and states levels, with the advantage of estimete adjustment factors, according to the desired level of aggregation. The results grouped by State, point to a significant improvement of the degree of coverage of deaths, according to the combination of the methods with values above 80%. Alagoas (0.88), Bahia (0.90), Ceará (0.90), Maranhão (0.84), Paraíba (0.88), Pernambuco (0.93), Piauí (0.85), Rio Grande do Norte (0.89) and Sergipe (0.92). Advances in the control of the registry information in the health system, linked to improvements in socioeconomic conditions and urbanization of the counties, in the last decade, provided a better quality of information registry of deaths in small areas

Biomassa e desenvolvimento sustentável e sócio regional no Brasil: uma análise à luz da Constituição Federal de 1988

It is verified worldwide an increasing concern with the protection of natural resources in the planet, a fact that became relevant in Brazil since the promulgation of the Constitution of 1988, based on the viewpoint of sustainable development, which seeks to promote economic activities in the country according to the need for conservation and preservation of natural resources for the use of present and future generations. In addition, we seek to reduce the differences that occur in our society by determining as a fundamental objective to be persecuted by the Federative Republic of Brazil the reduction of social and regional inequalities. A value that should also be observed in the context of economic activities developed here, since it is a general principle of financial and economic order of the country. Therefore, considering the exhaustion of world s reserves of fossil fuels, as well as the impacts on the environment, especially for the large emission of greenhouse effect gases, the debate about the need to change the global energy matrix increases while alternative energy sources appears as a bet to fulfill the contemporary aspirations for sustainability, and Brazil emerges in a very favorable position, because it has the essential natural conditions to allow this sector s full development. In this perspective, the work has the scope to analyze how the production of alternative energy sources may act in the search for concretization of constitutional values, to promote sustainable development for present and future generations, and to reduce regional and social inequalities in an attempt to improve the quality of life of the population. It will also be observed the current regulatory framework of alternative energy sources in the national laws to verify the existence of legal and institutional security, which is necessary to guarantee the full development of the sector in the country. And to investigate the expected results, it will be observed through the concrete evaluation of specific practices adopted in the industry, analyzing their actual compliance with the constitutional provisions under analysis, based on the examination of the possibility of using renewable biomass sources for biofuel production, promoting development to the country, indicating the opening lines about how this important sector can act to solve the energy challenge today

Reformas administrativas no Brasil: o caso do governo do estado do Piauí

From the 1980s, with technological development, globalization, and in a context of increasingly urgent demands, there is an international movement to modernize the state structures. Being driven by the victory of conservative governments in Britain and the U.S., this speech reform comes only to Brazil in the 1990s, the government of Fernando Henrique Cardoso. Thus, in view of the recent movement of states to implement this reform agenda in their structures this research was to identify the elements that made it possible to attempt to modernize the administrative structure of the state of Piauí in 2003, in view of the political and administrative career in which the state was entered. Seeking to clarify the problem studied here, through a case study carried out a descriptive and exploratory, using a technique of gathering data to document research and interviews semi-structured. As the lens of analysis for this study used the neo-historical and sociological institutionalism, through which it sought to identify the critical moment in which they gave the Administrative Reform of Piaui, the process of breaking with the political and administrative career that previously had being followed, and the isomorphic mechanisms that enabled this speech reform comes up to this state, mechanisms that allow the homogenization of the organizational field. In general it appears that the search for new patterns and new technologies for management by the states in Brazil is due to the context of fiscal crisis in which the states were entered, forcing them to seek alternative models of management . The process of diffusion of New Public Management agenda for the states became possible, among other factors, due to the new scenario in which was inserted into the Brazilian federal system in the second half of the 1990s, characterized by a greater articulation between the horizontalstates, where through the mechanisms of isomorphic institutional change was made possible by the absorption of the speech states reformer of the 1990s. However, due to the specificities of each region is given the experiences state unevenly. In the case of Piauí Administrative Reform only became possible due to the rearrangement of political forces in the state and the mechanisms of isomorphic institutional change, which allowed, in 2003, the state government to absorb the speech reformer

Arquitetura, litofácies e evolução tectonoestratigráfica da bacia do rio do peixe, nordeste do Brasil

The Rio do Peixe Basin is located in the border of Paraíba and Ceará states, immediately to the north of the Patos shear zone, encompassing an area of 1,315 km2. This is one of the main basins of eocretaceous age in Northeast Brazil, associated to the rifting event that shaped the present continental margin. The basin can be divided into four sub-basins, corresponding to Pombal, Sousa, Brejo das Freiras and Icozinho half-grabens. This dissertation was based on the analysis and interpretation of remote sensing products, field stratigraphic and structural data, and seismic sections and gravity data. Field work detailed the lithofacies characterization of the three formations previously recognised in the basin, Antenor Navarro, Sousa and Rio Piranhas. Unlike the classical vertical stacking, field relations and seismostratigraphic analysis highlighted the interdigitation and lateral equivalency between these units. On bio/chrono-stratigraphic and tectonic grounds, they correlate with the Rift Tectonosequence of neocomian age. The Antenor Navarro Formation rests overlies the crystalline basement in non conformity. It comprises lithofacies originated by a braided fluvial system system, dominated by immature, coarse and conglomeratic sandstones, and polymict conglomerates at the base. Its exposures occur in the different halfgrabens, along its flexural margins. Paleocurrent data indicate source areas in the basement to the north/NW, or input along strike ramps. The Sousa Formation is composed by fine-grained sandstones, siltites and reddish, locally grey-greenish to reddish laminated shales presenting wavy marks, mudcracks and, sometimes, carbonate beds. This formation shows major influence of a fluvial, floodplain system, with seismostratigraphic evidence of lacustrine facies at subsurface. Its distribution occupies the central part of the Sousa and Brejo das Freiras half-grabens, which constitute the main depocenters of the basin. Paleocurrent analysis shows that sediment transport was also from north/NW to south/SE

Caracterização geomorfológica e paleogeográfica da plataforma continental adjacente a foz do Rio Apodi-Mossoró, RN/Brasil

The brazilian marginal basins have a huge potential to generate and accumulate petroleum. Incised valleys which are eroded in response to a fall of relative sea level are related to potential reservoir as well, modern drowned-valley estuaries serve as harbors to petroleum and salt industries, fisheries, waste-disposal sites and recreational areas for a significant fraction of the world s population. The combined influence of these factors has produced a dramatic increase in research on modern and ancient incised-valley systems. This research is one expression of this interest. The integrated use of satellites images and high resolution seismic (bathymetry, sides scan sonar) was used on the Apodi River mouth-RN to characterizes the continental shelf This area is located at the Potiguar Basin in the NE Brazilian Equatorial Atlantic margin. Through bathymetric and side scan sonar data processing, a digital Terrain Model was developed, and a detailed geomorphologic analysis was performed. In this way was possible to recognize the geomorphologic framework and differents sismofacies, which may influence this area. A channel extending from the ApodiMossoró river mouth to the shelf edge dominates the investigated area. This structure can be correlated with the former river valley developed during the late Pleistocene sea level fall. This channel has two main directions (NW-SE and NE-SW) probably controlled by the Potiguar Basin structures. The western margin of the channel is relatively steep and pronounced whereas the eastern margin consists only of a gentle slope. Longitudinal bedforms and massive ridges also occur. The first are formed doe to the shelf sediment rework and the reef-like structures probably are relics of submerged beachrock-lines indicating past shoreline positions during the deglacial sea-level rise. The sub-bottom seismic data allow the identification of different sismic patterns and a marcant discontinuity, interpreted as the Upper

Uma abordagem para evolução e reconciliação de linhas de produtos de software clonadas

Software product line engineering promotes large software reuse by developing a system family that shares a set of developed core features, and enables the selection and customization of a set of variabilities that distinguish each software product family from the others. In order to address the time-to-market, the software industry has been using the clone-and-own technique to create and manage new software products or product lines. Despite its advantages, the clone-and-own approach brings several difficulties for the evolution and reconciliation of the software product lines, especially because of the code conflicts generated by the simultaneous evolution of the original software product line, called Source, and its cloned products, called Target. This thesis proposes an approach to evolve and reconcile cloned products based on mining software repositories and code conflict analysis techniques. The approach provides support to the identification of different kinds of code conflicts – lexical, structural and semantics – that can occur during development task integration – bug correction, enhancements and new use cases – from the original evolved software product line to the cloned product line. We have also conducted an empirical study of characterization of the code conflicts produced during the evolution and merging of two large-scale web information system product lines. The results of our study demonstrate the approach potential to automatically or semi-automatically solve several existing code conflicts thus contributing to reduce the complexity and costs of the reconciliation of cloned software product lines.

Mortalidade segundo sua causa de morte e seus determinantes: uma análise para as capitais brasileiras e municípios do nordeste do Brasil, 2000 e 2010

This dissertation considered the development of two papers, both related to mortality in Brazil. In the first article, "The context of mortality according to the three broad groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals, 2000 and 2010", the objective was to analyze the mortality rate according to the three major groups of causes of death in Brazilian capitals. In the second article, "Typology and characteristics of mortality from external causes in the municipalities in the Northeast of Brazil, 2000 and 2010", it was built up a typology for the Northeastern municipalities taking into account information on mortality from external causes and a set of indicators related to socioeconomic, demographic, and infrastructure aspects of such municipalities, both articles for the years 2000 and 2010. Thus, we used data from the Mortality Information System of the Ministry of Health. Furthermore, it was used information from the Demographic Census for those years. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. The variables relating to socioeconomic and demographic conditions used in this study were those available on the home page of the United Nations Program for Development. Was used in Article 1 the pro-rata distribution method to accomplish the redistribution of ill-defined causes. Moreover, made use of the technique of cluster analysis with the aim of grouping the capital that had proportions of deaths from ill-defined causes similar to each other. Already in Section 2, we used the technique of Empirical Bayesian estimation; spatial statistics technique; and finally, the Grade of Membership method to find types of municipalities from information on mortality from external causes associated with socioeconomic, demographic and infrastructure variables. As the main results, it stands out in Article 1, in relation to data quality, we observed the formation of four groups of similar capital between themselves, as the proportion of illdefined causes. Regarding the behavior of mortality, according to the three major groups of causes of death, it was noted both for 2000 and for 2010 the prevalence of deaths from noncommunicable diseases for both sexes, although the reduction was identified rates in some of the capitals. Communicable diseases stood out as the second cause of death among women. Also, we found that deaths due to external causes are responsible for the second cause of death among men, as well as presenting an increase among women. As for the Article 2, stands out, in general, not just an extension of mortality from external causes in the municipalities, as well as an enlargement of the configurator stain existence of external cause deaths for the whole area of Northeast. Regarding the typology of municipalities, three vi extreme profiles were buit: the profile 1, which comprises municipalities with high rates of mortality from external causes and the best social indicators; the profile 2, that was composed of municipalities that are characterized by having low mortality rates from external causes and the lowest social indicators; and the profile 3, that brings together municipalities with intermediate mortality rates and median values considered in relation to social indicators. Although we have not seen changes in the characteristics of the profiles, we observed an increase in the proportion of municipalities that belong to the extreme profile 3, taking into account the mixed profiles.

Metodologia de estimação de estados para tratamento de medições errôneas e registros não sincronizados em algoritmos de localização de faltas em linhas de transmissão

The performance of algorithms for fault location i n transmission lines is directly related to the accuracy of its input data. Thus, fa ctors such as errors in the line parameters, failures in synchronization of oscillographic recor ds and errors in measurements of voltage and current can significantly influence the accurac y of algorithms that use bad data to indicate the fault location. This work presents a new method ology for fault location in transmission lines based on the theory of state estimation in or der to determine the location of faults more accurately by considering realistic systematic erro rs that may be present in measurements of voltage and current. The methodology was implemente d in two stages: pre-fault and post- fault. In the first step, assuming non-synchronized data, the synchronization angle and positive sequence line parameters are estimated, an d in the second, the fault distance is estimated. Besides calculating the most likely faul t distance obtained from measurement errors, the variance associated with the distance f ound is also determined, using the errors theory. This is one of the main contributions of th is work, since, with the proposed algorithm, it is possible to determine a most likely zone of f ault incidence, with approximately 95,45% of confidence. Tests for evaluation and validation of the proposed algorithm were realized from actual records of faults and from simulations of fictitious transmission systems using ATP software. The obtained results are relevant to show that the proposed estimation approach works even adopting realistic variances, c ompatible with real equipments errors.

Análise estratigráfica da sequência mesodevoniana-eocarbonífera da Bacia do Parnaíba, nordeste do Brasil

The Middle Devonian-Early Carboniferous sequence of the Parnaíba Basin, lithostratigraphically defined as Canindé Group, has been reinterpreted using the basic model of sequence stratigraphy. Therefore, lithology and gamma ray well-logs and seismic lines of central portion of the basin were analyzed, producing up from there diagrams 1D, isochore maps and stratigraphic sections. As results of this study, were defined two depositional cycles of second order, referred as Depositional Sequence 1 (SEQ1) and the Depositional Sequence 2 (SEQ2). The SEQ1, with interval about 37 Ma, is limited below by Early Devonian Unconformity and is equivalent to the formations Itaim, Pimenteiras and Cabeças. The SEQ2, which follows, comprises a range of about 15 Ma and is equivalent to the Longá Formation The SEQ1 starts with the lowstand systems tract, consisting of progradational parasequence set in the basal part, predominantly pelitic, deposited on a prodelta under influence of storms and the upper part consists in sandstones of deltaic front, with the maximum regressive surface on the upper limit. The transgressive systems tract, deposited above, is characterized by retrogradacional parasequence set composed of shallow shelf mudstones, deposited under storm conditions. The maximum flooding surface, upper limit of this tract, is positioned in a shale level whose radioactivity in gammaray well-log is close to 150 API. The highstand systems tract presents progradational parasequence set, comprising mudstones and sandstones deposited in shelf, fluvial-estuarine or deltaic and periglacial environments, with the upper limit the Late Devonian Unconformity. The SEQ2 was deposited in shelf environment, starting with the lowstand systems tract, that is characterized by a progradational parasequence set, followed by the transgressive systems tract, with retrogradational character. The upper limit of the tract corresponding to the fusion between maximum flooding surface with the upper limit of this sequence, which is the Early Carboniferous Unconformity, where the overlapping section was eroded. This section, which corresponds the highstand systems tract is restricted to portions at which the erosion that generate the Early-Carboniferous Unconformity was less effective, preserving the records of this unit.

Análise estratigráfica da sequência mesodevoniana-eocarbonífera da Bacia do Parnaíba, nordeste do Brasil

The Middle Devonian-Early Carboniferous sequence of the Parnaíba Basin, lithostratigraphically defined as Canindé Group, has been reinterpreted using the basic model of sequence stratigraphy. Therefore, lithology and gamma ray well-logs and seismic lines of central portion of the basin were analyzed, producing up from there diagrams 1D, isochore maps and stratigraphic sections. As results of this study, were defined two depositional cycles of second order, referred as Depositional Sequence 1 (SEQ1) and the Depositional Sequence 2 (SEQ2). The SEQ1, with interval about 37 Ma, is limited below by Early Devonian Unconformity and is equivalent to the formations Itaim, Pimenteiras and Cabeças. The SEQ2, which follows, comprises a range of about 15 Ma and is equivalent to the Longá Formation The SEQ1 starts with the lowstand systems tract, consisting of progradational parasequence set in the basal part, predominantly pelitic, deposited on a prodelta under influence of storms and the upper part consists in sandstones of deltaic front, with the maximum regressive surface on the upper limit. The transgressive systems tract, deposited above, is characterized by retrogradacional parasequence set composed of shallow shelf mudstones, deposited under storm conditions. The maximum flooding surface, upper limit of this tract, is positioned in a shale level whose radioactivity in gammaray well-log is close to 150 API. The highstand systems tract presents progradational parasequence set, comprising mudstones and sandstones deposited in shelf, fluvial-estuarine or deltaic and periglacial environments, with the upper limit the Late Devonian Unconformity. The SEQ2 was deposited in shelf environment, starting with the lowstand systems tract, that is characterized by a progradational parasequence set, followed by the transgressive systems tract, with retrogradational character. The upper limit of the tract corresponding to the fusion between maximum flooding surface with the upper limit of this sequence, which is the Early Carboniferous Unconformity, where the overlapping section was eroded. This section, which corresponds the highstand systems tract is restricted to portions at which the erosion that generate the Early-Carboniferous Unconformity was less effective, preserving the records of this unit.