Estudo estatístico sobre eventos de precipitação intensa no nordeste do Brasil

The Northeast of Brazil (NEB) shows high climate variability, ranging from semiarid regions to a rainy regions. According to the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the NEB is highly susceptible to climate change, and also heavy rainfall events (HRE). However, few climatology studies about these episodes were performed, thus the objective main research is to compute the climatology and trend of the episodes number and the daily rainfall rate associated with HRE in the NEB and its climatologically homogeneous sub regions; relate them to the weak rainfall events and normal rainfall events. The daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the Agência Nacional de Águas, from 1972 to 2002. For selection of rainfall events used the technique of quantiles and the trend was identified using the Mann-Kendall test. The sub regions were obtained by cluster analysis, using as similarity measure the Euclidean distance and Ward agglomerative hierarchical method. The results show that the seasonality of the NEB is being intensified, i.e., the dry season is becoming drier and wet season getting wet. The El Niño and La Niña influence more on the amount of events regarding the intensity, but the sub-regions this influence is less noticeable. Using daily data reanalysis ERAInterim fields of anomalies of the composites of meteorological variables were calculated for the coast of the NEB, to characterize the synoptic environment. The Upper-level cyclonic vortex and the South atlantic convergene zone were identified as the main weather systems responsible for training of EPI on the coastland

Monitoramento ambiental da costa do Rio Grande do Norte com base em sensoriamento remoto e geodésia de precisão

This paper presents models of parameters of Sea Surface Layer (SSL), such as chlorophyll-a, sea surface temperature (SST), Primary Productivity (PP) and Total Suspended Matter (TSM) for the region adjacent to the continental shelf of Rio Grande do Norte (RN), Brazil. Concentrations of these parameters measured in situ were compared in time quasi-synchronous with images AQUA-MODIS between the years 2003 to 2011. Determination coefficients between samples in situ and bands reflectance sensor AQUA-MODIS were representative. From that, concentrations of SSL parameters were acquired for the continental shelf of the RN (eastern and northern) analyzing the geographic distribution of variation of these parameters between the years 2009-2012. Geographical and seasonal variations mainly influenced by global climate phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña, were found through the analysis of AQUA-MODIS images by Principal Components Analysis (PCA). Images show qualitatively the variance and availability of TSM in the regions, as well as their relationship with coastal erosion hotspots, monitored along the coast of the RN. In one of the areas identified as being of limited availability of TSM, we developed a methodology for assessment and evaluation of Digital Elevation Models (DEM) of beach surfaces (emerged and submerged sections) from the integration of topographic and bathymetric data measured in situ and accurately georeferenced compatible to studies of geomorphology and coastal dynamics of short duration. The methodology consisted of surveys with GNSS positioning operated in cinematic relative mode involved in topographic and bathymetric executed in relation to the stations of the geodetic network of the study area, which provided geodetic link to the Brazilian Geodetic System (GBS), univocal , fixed, and relatively stable over time. In this study Ponta Negra Beach, Natal / RN, was identified as a region with low variance and availability of MPS in the region off, as characterized by intense human occupation and intense coastal erosion in recent decades, which presents potential of the proposed methodology for accuracy and productivity, and the progress achieved in relation to the classical methods of surveying beach profiles

Dinâmica das configurações de formação e inibição das chuvas no Rio Grande do Norte: caracterização hidroclimática do estado

This study aimed to evaluate the influence of the main meteorological mechanisms trainers and inhibitors of precipitation, and the interactions between different scales of operation, the spatial and temporal variability of the annual cycle of precipitation in the Rio Grande do Norte. Além disso, considerando as circunstâncias locais e regionais, criando assim uma base científica para apoiar ações futuras na gestão da demanda de água no Estado. Database from monthly precipitation of 45 years, ranging between 1963 and 2007, data provided by EMPARN. The methodology used to achieve the results was initially composed of descriptive statistical analysis of historical data to prove the stability of the series, were applied after, geostatistics tool for plotting maps of the variables, within the geostatistical we opted for by Kriging interpolation method because it was the method that showed the best results and minor errors. Among the results, we highlight the annual cycle of rainfall the State which is influenced by meteorological mechanisms of different spatial and temporal scales, where the main mechanisms cycle modulators are the Conference Intertropical Zone (ITCZ) acting since midFebruary to mid May throughout the state, waves Leste (OL), Lines of instability (LI), breeze systems and orographic rainfall acting mainly in the Coastal strip between February and July. Along with vortice of high levels (VCANs), Complex Mesoscale Convective (CCMs) and orographic rain in any region of the state mainly in spring and summer. In terms of larger scale phenomena stood out El Niño and La Niña, ENSO in the tropical Pacific basin. In La Niña episodes usually occur normal or rainy years, as upon the occurrence of prolonged periods of drought are influenced by EL NIÑO. In the Atlantic Ocean the standard Dipole also affects the intensity of the rainfall cycle in State. The cycle of rains in Rio Grande do Norte is divided into two periods, one comprising the regions West, Central and the Western Portion of the Wasteland Potiguar mesoregions of west Chapada Borborema, causing rains from midFebruary to mid-May and a second period of cycle, between February-July, where rains occur in mesoregions East and of the Wasteland, located upwind of the Chapada Borborema, both interspersed with dry periods without occurrence of significant rainfall and transition periods of rainy - dry and dry-rainy where isolated rainfall occur. Approximately 82% of the rainfall stations of the state which corresponds to 83.4% of the total area of Rio Grande do Norte, do not record annual volumes above 900 mm. Because the water supply of the State be maintained by small reservoirs already are in an advanced state of eutrophication, when the rains occur, act to wash and replace the water in the reservoirs, improving the quality of these, reducing the eutrophication process. When rain they do not significantly occur or after long periods of shortages, the process of eutrophication and deterioration of water in dams increased significantly. Through knowledge of the behavior of the annual cycle of rainfall can have an intimate knowledge of how it may be the tendency of rainy or prone to shortages following period, mainly observing the trends of larger scale phenomena

A criança com paralisia cerebral na educação infantil: um olhar sobre a prática docente

La inclusión de los niños con discapacidad en la educación infantil, además de ser un tema poco planteado en la comunidad científica, es un reto actual en lo que se refiere a la práctica docente. Basándose en este aspecto, nuestro objetivo en esta investigación realizada, que resultó en la elaboración de este trabajo, fue analizar cómo se procesa la práctica docente con vistas a la inclusión escolar de un niño con parálisis cerebral, en un Centro Municipal de Educación Infantil (CMEI), en la ciudad de Natal / RN. Más específicamente, buscamos: reflexionar sobre la práctica de la profesora responsable por la clase, en lo que se refiere al desarrollo del niño con parálisis cerebral; analizar las interacciones entre educador y niño con parálisis cerebral; observar la práctica docente en la perspectiva de favorecer la interacción entre el niño con parálisis cerebral y otros niños. Para ello, realizamos una pesquisa exploratoria, cualitativa, y así que optamos por el método del Estudio de Caso. Utilizamos como procedimientos metodológicos el análisis documental, la investigación bibliográfica, la entrevista semiestructurada, la observación y la filmación de escenas relacionadas a la práctica docente. Los sujetos de la investigación fueron la profesora y el niño con parálisis cerebral. Los datos construidos durante la investigación señalaron el hecho de que la práctica de la profesora no estaba encaminada a las necesidades específicas de la alumna con parálisis cerebral, todavía, se desarrollaba de una manera similar para todos los niños en la clase. La presencia de limitaciones significativas para la inclusión de la niña con parálisis cerebral en la educación infantil puede ser considerado como el resultado de la ausencia de una adecuada preparación docente, tanto en el nivel de la formación inicial, cuanto de una formación continua y también la escasez de directrices para el maestro, en proceso; directrices estas acerca de la educación de los niños con parálisis cerebral, lo que hacía imposible a la profesora contribuir de manera efectiva a su mayor desarrollo cognitivo y social.

Um estudo sobre a variabilidade do vento no nordeste do Brasil através de métodos estatísticos e via modelos dinâmicos de meso e micro escala

The objective of this study was to determine the seasonal and interannual variability and calculate the trends of wind speed in NEB and then validate the mesoscale numerical model for after engage with the microscale numerical model in order to get the wind resource at some locations in the NEB. For this we use two data sets of wind speed (weather stations and anemometric towers) and two dynamic models; one of mesoscale and another of microscale. We use statistical tools to evaluate and validate the data obtained. The simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model were made using data assimilation methods (Newtonian Relaxation and Kalman filter). The main results show: (i) Five homogeneous groups of wind speed in the NEB with higher values in winter and spring and with lower in summer and fall; (ii) The interannual variability of the wind speed in some groups stood out with higher values; (iii) The large-scale circulation modified by the El Niño and La Niña intensified wind speed for the groups with higher values; (iv) The trend analysis showed more significant negative values for G3, G4 and G5 in all seasons and in the annual average; (v) The performance of dynamic mesoscale model showed smaller errors in the locations Paracuru and São João and major errors were observed in Triunfo; (vi) Application of the Kalman filter significantly reduce the systematic errors shown in the simulations of the dynamic mesoscale model; (vii) The wind resource indicate that Paracuru and Triunfo are favorable areas for the generation of energy, and the coupling technique after validation showed better results for Paracuru. We conclude that the objective was achieved, making it possible to identify trends in homogeneous groups of wind behavior, and to evaluate the quality of both simulations with the dynamic model of mesoscale and microscale to answer questions as necessary before planning research projects in Wind-Energy area in the NEB