Influência dos modelos digitais de terreno na modelagem de circulação hidrodinâmica 2DH: um estudo de caso

Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are numerical representations of a portion of the earth surface. Among several factors which affect the quality of a DEM, it should be emphasized the attention on the input data and the choice of the interpolating algorithm. On the other hand, several numerical models are used nowadays to characterize nearshore hydrodynamics and morphological changes in coastal areas, whose validation is based on field data collection. Independent on the complexity of the physical processes which are modeled, little attention has been given to the intrinsic bathymetric interpolation built within the numerical models of the specific application. Therefore, this study aims to investigate and to quantify the influence of the bathymetry, as obtained by a DEM, on the hydrodynamic circulation model at a coastal stretch, off the coast of the State of Rio Grande do Norte, Northeast Brazil. This coastal region is characterized by strong hydrodynamic and littoral processes, resulting in a very dynamic morphology with shallow coastal bathymetry. Important economic activities, such as oil exploitation and production, fisheries, salt ponds, shrimp farms and tourism, also bring impacts upon the local ecosystems and influence themselves the local hydrodynamics. This fact makes the region one of the most important for the development of the State, but also enhances the possibility of serious environmental accidents. As a hydrodynamic model, SisBaHiA® - Environmental Hydrodynamics System ( Sistema Básico de Hidrodinâmica Ambiental ) was chosen, for it has been successfully employed at several locations along the Brazilian coast. This model was developed at the Coastal and Oceanographical Engineering Group of the Ocean Engineering Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro. Several interpolating methods were tested for the construction of the DEM, namely Natural Neighbor, Kriging, Triangulation with Linear Interpolation, Inverse Distance to a Power, Nearest Neighbor, and Minimum Curvature, all implemented within the software Surfer®. The bathymetry which was used as reference for the DEM was obtained from nautical charts provided by the Brazilian Hydrographic Service of the Brazilian Navy and from a field survey conducted in 2005. Changes in flow velocity and free surface elevation were evaluated under three aspects: a spatial vision along three profiles perpendicular to the coast and one profile longitudinal to the coast as shown; a temporal vision from three central nodes of the grid during 30 days; a hodograph analysis of components of speed in U and V, by different tidal cycles. Small, but negligible, variations in sea surface elevation were identified. However, the differences in flow and direction of velocities were significant, depending on the DEM

Dowscaling estocástico para extremos climáticos via interpolação espacial

Present day weather forecast models usually cannot provide realistic descriptions of local and particulary extreme weather conditions. However, for lead times of about a small number of days, they provide reliable forecast of the atmospheric circulation that encompasses the subscale processes leading to extremes. Hence, forecasts of extreme events can only be achieved through a combination of dynamical and statistical analysis methods, where a stable and significant statistical model based on prior physical reasoning establishes posterior statistical-dynamical model between the local extremes and the large scale circulation. Here we present the development and application of such a statistical model calibration on the besis of extreme value theory, in order to derive probabilistic forecast for extreme local temperature. The dowscaling applies to NCEP/NCAR re-analysis, in order to derive estimates of daily temperature at Brazilian northeastern region weather stations

Estudo integrado de análogo a reservatórios petrolíferos fluviais: caracterização, parametrização e modelagem tridimensional de depósitos recentes do Rio Assu (Rio Grande do Norte/Brasil)

This work shows a integrated study of modern analog to fluvial reservoirs of Açu Formation (Unit 3). The modern analog studied has been Assu River located in the same named city, Rio Grande do Norte State, Northeast of Brazil. It has been developed a new methodology to parameterizating the fluvial geological bodies by GPR profile (by central frequency antennas of 50, 100 and 200 MHz). The main parameters obtained were width and thickness. Still in the parameterization, orthophotomaps have been used to calculate the canal sinuosity and braided parameters of Assu River. These information are integrated in a database to supply input data in 3D geological models of fluvial reservoirs. It was made an architectural characterization of the deposit by trench description, GPR profile interpretation and natural expositions study to recognize and describe the facies and its associations, external and internal geometries, boundary surfaces and archtetural elements. Finally, a three-dimensional modeling has been built using all the acquired data already in association with real well data of a reservoir which Rio Assu is considered as analogous. Facies simulations have been used simple kriging (deterministic algorithm), SIS and Boolean (object-based, both stochastics). And, for modeling porosities have used the stochastic algorithm SGS