Análise da sobre-reação e sub-reação nos ativos de primeira e segunda lina do mercado acionário brasileiro

The Behavioral Finance develop as it is perceived anomalies in these markets efficient. This fields of study can be grouped into three major groups: heuristic bias, tying the shape and inefficient markets. The present study focuses on issues concerning the heuristics of representativeness and anchoring. This study aimed to identify the then under-reaction and over-reaction, as well as the existence of symmetry in the active first and second line of the Brazilian stock market. For this, it will be use the Fuzzy Logic and the indicators that classify groups studied from the Discriminant Analysis. The highest present, indicator in the period studied, was the Liabilities / Equity, demonstrating the importance of the moment to discriminate the assets to be considered "winners" and "losers." Note that in the MLCX biases over-reaction is concentrated in the period of financial crisis, and in the remaining periods of statistically significant biases, are obtained by sub-reactions. The latter would be in times of moderate levels of uncertainty. In the Small Caps the behavioral responses in 2005 and 2007 occur in reverse to those observed in the Mid-Large Cap. Now in times of crisis would have a marked conservatism while near the end of trading on the Bovespa speaker, accompanied by an increase of negotiations, there is an overreaction by investors. The other heuristics in SMLL occurred at the end of the period studied, this being a under-reaction and the other a over-reaction and the second occurring in a period of financial-economic more positive than the first. As regards the under / over-reactivity in both types, there is detected a predominance of either, which probably be different in the context in MLCX without crisis. For the period in which such phenomena occur in a statistically significant to note that, in most cases, such phenomena occur during the periods for MLCX while in SMLL not only biases are less present as there is no concentration of these at any time . Given the above, it is believed that while detecting the presence of bias behavior at certain times, these do not tend to appear to a specific type or heuristics and while there were some indications of a seasonal pattern in Mid- Large Caps, the same behavior does not seem to be repeated in Small Caps. The tests would then suggest that momentary failures in the Efficient Market Hypothesis when tested in semistrong form as stated by Behavioral Finance. This result confirms the theory by stating that not only rationality, but also human irrationality, is limited because it would act rationally in many circumstances

Automação da drenagem no teste de produção convencional em tanque cilíndrico

This document aims to improve the quality of the production test in vertical tanks with free water drain pipes, through a device to control the draining system. This proposal consists of an interface detector close to the tank bottle and a control valve on the pipe-drain; they are attached to a remote supervisor system, which will be minimizing the human influence in the conclusion of the test result. And for more consciousness the work shows the importance of the wells production test in the attendance and diagnosis of the productive process, informing the large number of tests executed and problems of the procedure adopted in the field today. There are many possible sources of uncertainty in this kind of test as shown in the experiments realized in the field; the object prototype of this dissertation will be made in the field, based upon the definition of parameters and characteristics of the devices proposal. For a better definition of the draining process the action results of the assessment test are shown, especially changed some for the understand ing of the real process. It shows the proposal details and the configuration that will be used in the tank of Monte Alegre s field Production Station, explaining the interface detector kind and the control system. It is the base to a pilot project now in development, named as the new project classified in the status of the new technology and production improvement of PETROBRAS in Rio Grande do Norte and Ceará. This dissertation concludes that the automation of the conventional test with the draining system will bring benefits both economically as metrologically, because it reduces the uncertainty of the test procedures with free water draining, and also decreases the number of tests with problems

Ernst Bloch: esperança e educação em tempos de niilismo

This work aims give evidence of that The hope principle, the philosophical system devised by the German philosopher Ernst Bloch, in which hope assumes an ontological character, offers cognitive support that allows overcoming the void imposed by nihilism today, especially in the field of education. But while it offers cognitive support, it also presents a need that is fulfilled by an educational proposal based on a not-yet-conscious being. An education based on hope has four essential pillars: learning to know, learning to do, learning to be, learning to live together and, most of all, immerging into in the seas of uncertainty. In times when school is a promoter of certainties at the expense of uncertainties, education must not forsake the notion of the unpredictable and immeasurable, nor the need to find ways to enable better understanding of aspect related to the not-yet-be. The employed theoretical and methodological elements in this work paint a corpus through an interactive process in which layers of additional texts are subjected to analysis

Probabilidades imprecisas: intervalar, fuzzy e fuzzy intuicionista

The idea of considering imprecision in probabilities is old, beginning with the Booles George work, who in 1854 wanted to reconcile the classical logic, which allows the modeling of complete ignorance, with probabilities. In 1921, John Maynard Keynes in his book made explicit use of intervals to represent the imprecision in probabilities. But only from the work ofWalley in 1991 that were established principles that should be respected by a probability theory that deals with inaccuracies. With the emergence of the theory of fuzzy sets by Lotfi Zadeh in 1965, there is another way of dealing with uncertainty and imprecision of concepts. Quickly, they began to propose several ways to consider the ideas of Zadeh in probabilities, to deal with inaccuracies, either in the events associated with the probabilities or in the values of probabilities. In particular, James Buckley, from 2003 begins to develop a probability theory in which the fuzzy values of the probabilities are fuzzy numbers. This fuzzy probability, follows analogous principles to Walley imprecise probabilities. On the other hand, the uses of real numbers between 0 and 1 as truth degrees, as originally proposed by Zadeh, has the drawback to use very precise values for dealing with uncertainties (as one can distinguish a fairly element satisfies a property with a 0.423 level of something that meets with grade 0.424?). This motivated the development of several extensions of fuzzy set theory which includes some kind of inaccuracy. This work consider the Krassimir Atanassov extension proposed in 1983, which add an extra degree of uncertainty to model the moment of hesitation to assign the membership degree, and therefore a value indicate the degree to which the object belongs to the set while the other, the degree to which it not belongs to the set. In the Zadeh fuzzy set theory, this non membership degree is, by default, the complement of the membership degree. Thus, in this approach the non-membership degree is somehow independent of the membership degree, and this difference between the non-membership degree and the complement of the membership degree reveals the hesitation at the moment to assign a membership degree. This new extension today is called of Atanassov s intuitionistic fuzzy sets theory. It is worth noting that the term intuitionistic here has no relation to the term intuitionistic as known in the context of intuitionistic logic. In this work, will be developed two proposals for interval probability: the restricted interval probability and the unrestricted interval probability, are also introduced two notions of fuzzy probability: the constrained fuzzy probability and the unconstrained fuzzy probability and will eventually be introduced two notions of intuitionistic fuzzy probability: the restricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability and the unrestricted intuitionistic fuzzy probability

Controlador preditivo generalizado multi-modelo aplicado ao controle de pressão arterial

Postsurgical complication of hypertension may occur in cardiac patients. To decrease the chances of complication it is necessary to reduce elevated blood pressure as soon as possible. Continuous infusion of vasodilator drugs, such as sodium nitroprusside (Nipride), would quickly lower the blood pressure in most patients. However, each patient has a different sensitivity to infusion of Nipride. The parameters and the time delays of the system are initially unknown. Moreover, the parameters of the transfer function associated with a particular patient are time varying. the objective of the study is to develop a procedure for blood pressure control i the presence of uncertainty of parameters and considerable time delays. So, a methodology was developed multi-model, and for each such model a Preditive Controller can be a priori designed. An adaptive mechanism is then needed for deciding which controller should be dominant for a given plant

Desenvolvimento de métodos construtivos e de novos materiais empregados na confecção de cartuchos de próteses de membros inferiores

The manufacture of prostheses for lower limb amputees (transfemural and transtibial) requires the preparation of a cartridge with appropriate and custom fit to the profile of each patient. The traditional process to the patients, mainly in public hospitals in Brazil, begins with the completion of a form where types of equipment, plugins, measures, levels of amputation etc. are identified. Currently, such work is carried out manually using a common metric tape and caliper of wood to take the measures of the stump, featuring a very rudimentary, and with a high degree of uncertainty geometry of the final product. To address this problem, it was necessary to act in two simultaneously and correlated directions. Originally, it was developed an integrated tool for viewing 3D CAD for transfemoral types of prostheses and transtibial called OrtoCAD I. At the same time, it was necessary to design and build a reader Mechanical equipment (sort of three-dimensional scanner simplified) able to obtain, automatically and with accuracy, the geometric information of either of the stump or the healthy leg. The methodology includes the application of concepts of reverse engineering to computationally generate the representation of the stump and/or the reverse image of the healthy member. The materials used in the manufacturing of prostheses nor always obey to a technical scientific criteria, because, if by one way it meets the criteria of resistance, by the other, it brings serious problems mainly due to excess of weight. This causes to the user various disorders due to lack of conformity. That problem was addressed with the creation of a hybrid composite material for the manufacture of cartridges of prostheses. Using the Reader Fitter and OrtoCAD, the new composite material, which aggregates the mechanical properties of strength and rigidity on important parameters such as low weight and low cost, it can be defined in its better way. Besides, it brings a reduction of up steps in the current processes of manufacturing or even the feasibility of using new processes, in the industries, in order to obtain the prostheses. In this sense, the hybridization of the composite with the combination of natural and synthetic fibers can be a viable solution to the challenges offered above

Adaptação eletrônica de um leitor mecânico de coto, investigação e desenvolvimento de interface CAD

Due to advances in the manufacturing process of orthopedic prostheses, the need for better quality shape reading techniques (i.e. with less uncertainty) of the residual limb of amputees became a challenge. To overcome these problems means to be able in obtaining accurate geometry information of the limb and, consequently, better manufacturing processes of both transfemural and transtibial prosthetic sockets. The key point for this task is to customize these readings trying to be as faithful as possible to the real profile of each patient. Within this context, firstly two prototype versions (α and β) of a 3D mechanical scanner for reading residual limbs shape based on reverse engineering techniques were designed. Prototype β is an improved version of prototype α, despite remaining working in analogical mode. Both prototypes are capable of producing a CAD representation of the limb via appropriated graphical sheets and were conceived to work purely by mechanical means. The first results were encouraging as they were able to achieve a great decrease concerning the degree of uncertainty of measurements when compared to traditional methods that are very inaccurate and outdated. For instance, it's not unusual to see these archaic methods in action by making use of ordinary home kind measure-tapes for exploring the limb's shape. Although prototype β improved the readings, it still required someone to input the plotted points (i.e. those marked in disk shape graphical sheets) to an academic CAD software called OrtoCAD. This task is performed by manual typing which is time consuming and carries very limited reliability. Furthermore, the number of coordinates obtained from the purely mechanical system is limited to sub-divisions of the graphical sheet (it records a point every 10 degrees with a resolution of one millimeter). These drawbacks were overcome by designing the second release of prototype β in which it was developed an electronic variation of the reading table components now capable of performing an automatic reading (i.e. no human intervention in digital mode). An interface software (i.e. drive) was built to facilitate data transfer. Much better results were obtained meaning less degree of uncertainty (it records a point every 2 degrees with a resolution of 1/10 mm). Additionally, it was proposed an algorithm to convert the CAD geometry, used by OrtoCAD, to an appropriate format and enabling the use of rapid prototyping equipment aiming future automation of the manufacturing process of prosthetic sockets.

O entardecer de uma era: técnica, poesia e pensamento em Heidegger

The thinking dialog between Heidegger s philosophy and the poetry of Hölderlin and Rilke must be dealt in language s domains. The difficulty to establish this dialog comes from the man in itself, unable to think out of the understructure of science and the modern technique. The poetic language was forgotten or ignored, turning itself obsolete in front of improvements and resources of the technique. Heidegger searches the essences to the poetry so may it be comprehended in its plenitude for the man. Technique, poetry and existence must be pronounced and investigated so the being shows itself again. To Heidegger, the man lives in a period of uncertainty due finding himself at the sunset of age. The uncertainty generates the poverty and the night of world represents the absence of god and original truth. Only with the fundamental comprehension of poetry, the man of today can project himself to the future not anymore as technique product, but with freedom to choose. The message of poetry of Hölderlin and Rilke, according to Heidegger s interpretation, transmits an alert to the contemporary man against the coming danger in his maintained relation with nature. The purpose of the following work is to build this thinking dialog, without disfigure the poetry, but taking approach over its essence, so from there to remove its true existential value.