Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Balanced Scorecard: fatores relevantes de sua implantação na diretoria de mercado de capitais do Banco do Brasil

Este trabalho objetiva determinar que características do corpo funcional da DIMEC (Diretoria de Mercado de Capitais do Banco do Brasil) estão associadas aos principais entraves considerados relevantes pelos funcionários da área durante a implementação do Balanced Scorecard (BSC). Pretende-se salientar como entraves tais como a falta de apoio de Tecnologia de Informação e a falta de hábito dos funcionários em lidar com indicadores não financeiros podem se relacionar com as características de interesse do corpo funcional, tais como nível hierárquico , formação acadêmica e nível de conhecimento da ferramenta BSC , de forma a influenciar na implementação do modelo. Para tanto foi realizada revisão de literatura e estudo de caso no qual figuraram, como instrumentos de coleta de dados, a aplicação de questionários e a entrevista não-estruturada através dos quais funcionários da DIMEC demonstraram as relações entre as variáveis descritas de forma a destacar fatores de relevância para o desenrolar do processo de implantação da ferramenta BSC na referida empresa

Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

A cultura organizacional influenciando o comportamento do capital humano na biblioteca universitária

DUARTE, E. N. ; CARVALHO, Andréa Vasconcelos ; PINHEIRO, E. G. ; CARVALHO, Luciana Moreira ; NOGUEIRA, N. M. F. . A cultura organizacional influenciando o comportamento do capital humano na biblioteca universitária. Informação & Sociedade. Estudos, João Pessoa - PB, v. 10, n. 2, p. 190-210, 2000

Determinantes da Estrutura de Capital de Companhias Abertas Brasileiras Não-Financeiras: Um Estudo Empírico com Dados em Painel

When a company desires to invest in a project, it must obtain resources needed to make the investment. The alternatives are using firm s internal resources or obtain external resources through contracts of debt and issuance of shares. Decisions involving the composition of internal resources, debt and shares in the total resources used to finance the activities of a company related to the choice of its capital structure. Although there are studies in the area of finance on the debt determinants of firms, the issue of capital structure is still controversial. This work sought to identify the predominant factors that determine the capital structure of Brazilian share capital, non-financial firms. This work was used a quantitative approach, with application of the statistical technique of multiple linear regression on data in panel. Estimates were made by the method of ordinary least squares with model of fixed effects. About 116 companies were selected to participate in this research. The period considered is from 2003 to 2007. The variables and hypotheses tested in this study were built based on theories of capital structure and in empirical researches. Results indicate that the variables, such as risk, size, and composition of assets and firms growth influence their indebtedness. The profitability variable was not relevant to the composition of indebtedness of the companies analyzed. However, analyzing only the long-term debt, comes to the conclusion that the relevant variables are the size of firms and, especially, the composition of its assets (tangibility).This sense, the smaller the size of the undertaking or the greater the representation of fixed assets in total assets, the greater its propensity to long-term debt. Furthermore, this research could not identify a predominant theory to explain the capital structure of Brazilian

Vicus Judæorum: os judeus e o espaço urbano no Recife neerlandês

This work broaches the participation of the Jewish community in the urban expansion of Recife, Brazil, during the Dutch period (1630-1654). With the arrival of the Dutch, the village of Olinda, former capital of Pernambuco, was destroyed and Recife received the juridical statute of city (stad), becoming the capital of Dutch Brazil or New Holland. It became the main West Indians Company s entrepot in South Atlantic, serving as naval base, port of call for ships, and point of export of the sugar production of Pernambuco, and import of European goods and African slaves. In order to such administrative, military and economic functions be carried out, the sand isthmus where Recife used to stay, and the fluvial island of Antônio Vaz, received improvements of many sort. The Dutch hydraulic technology was put in practice, with a posture of opposition between civilization and nature. Among military works and production of urban equipments, the rivers shores were land-filled, canals were built, bridges were lifted, and hundreds of buildings were erected. The civil Dutch population of Recife engaged in the process of production of physical space, which brought a sense of collective action towards the formation of the urban, or burgher, community. From the physical to the social space, there was an effort towards Dutch cultural standards in the urban environment. The Zur Israel Jewish community, formed by private civilians, it is, nonemployees of the WIC, engaged in those processes. It produced physical space through the land-filling and improvement of non healthy areas, and was also responsible for the construction of a significant section of the town s buildings and some of urban equipments, such as stores, markets and slave-warehouses, making more dynamic their economical activities. But their social traffic was due to the adaptation of their behavior to the standards of Dutch sociability. Thus, the community body made itself part of the social body. Disposing of internal selfregulation, it produced spaces with their cultural references cemetery, synagogue, texts enjoying benefits of the government. Zur Israel inscribed itself in the universal history of the Jews as the first community of Americas, and had a fundamental part on the emancipation of Jews within Western society

As Faces e os Disfaces da Informalidade no Capitalismo Conteporâneo: Um Estudo do Comércio de Rua em Pau dos Ferros/RN

This paper discusses the expression of informality in contemporary capitalism. Thematic of relevance to the analysis of the reality of work today and the logic that moves the capital, its real presence in the lives of individuals. The street trading of Pau dos Ferros town, popularly known as "street market" was chosen as the search space. The main objective is to seize and examine the articulations and logic, present in the configuration of the street trading of this city, located in the state of Rio Grande do Norte, explaining the functionality of informality for capitalist accumulation, but also for the reproduction of segments of the working class. Our analysis is based in the perspective of totality, trying to grasp the historical determinations of the phenomenon in focus. It includes the analysis of the mechanisms used by the capital to reproduce itself in the current historical context, which has been implicated in the composition of the labor markets of different countries and in various forms of exploitation to which workers in general are subject. It also means discussing the development of capitalism in Brazil, the logic that permeates its dependence, and especially the use of over-exploitation of labor, as a lever for internal accumulation. The course of investigation consisted of theoretical research to form the basis of theoretical and methodological analysis and to outline the context in which our research object is inserted, and field research conducted in two phases: systematic observation, which allowed to map traders features and the infrastructure of commerce, and the conduction of interviews with key informants. The material collected was scrutinized according to analytical scheme inspired by the content analysis. Among the main considerations developed from the research process we include: the street trading of Pau dos Ferros remains shrouded in the majority sale of agricultural products, this demonstrates the structural characteristics of the region. However, the supply of this product is no longer restricted to the excess of small local producers. The presence of the dealer changed the distribution of the product, streamlining it. In parallel, business practices are developed, practices in which traded goods (industrial) reflect the moment of capitalist restoration, a larger business network. The reflections also made it possible to show that street trading follows developing on the basis of informal work, which gains functionality to the system, as it is configured as a space commonly used to drain part of the production, of industries (clothing/shoes), especially if the distribution is considered as an essential element of the complex process that aims at capital appreciation. This activity has been functioning as a place of employment and income generation for the subjects who are away from formal employment, masking, this way, unemployment, moreover, they allow them to continue as consumers. Such expressions reflect the ability and the logic of capital to expand and aggregate into so many realities. It is underway today, the logic that has led many workers to join the project of domination of capital, by the illusory chance to become capitalists. The aim has been to turn the subject into a consumer and the worker an enterprising

A cultura organizacional influenciando o comportamento do capital humano na biblioteca universitária

DUARTE, E. N. ; CARVALHO, Andréa Vasconcelos ; PINHEIRO, E. G. ; CARVALHO, Luciana Moreira ; NOGUEIRA, N. M. F. . A cultura organizacional influenciando o comportamento do capital humano na biblioteca universitária. Informação & Sociedade. Estudos, João Pessoa - PB, v. 10, n. 2, p. 190-210, 2000

Determinantes da Estrutura de Capital de Companhias Abertas Brasileiras Não-Financeiras: Um Estudo Empírico com Dados em Painel

When a company desires to invest in a project, it must obtain resources needed to make the investment. The alternatives are using firm s internal resources or obtain external resources through contracts of debt and issuance of shares. Decisions involving the composition of internal resources, debt and shares in the total resources used to finance the activities of a company related to the choice of its capital structure. Although there are studies in the area of finance on the debt determinants of firms, the issue of capital structure is still controversial. This work sought to identify the predominant factors that determine the capital structure of Brazilian share capital, non-financial firms. This work was used a quantitative approach, with application of the statistical technique of multiple linear regression on data in panel. Estimates were made by the method of ordinary least squares with model of fixed effects. About 116 companies were selected to participate in this research. The period considered is from 2003 to 2007. The variables and hypotheses tested in this study were built based on theories of capital structure and in empirical researches. Results indicate that the variables, such as risk, size, and composition of assets and firms growth influence their indebtedness. The profitability variable was not relevant to the composition of indebtedness of the companies analyzed. However, analyzing only the long-term debt, comes to the conclusion that the relevant variables are the size of firms and, especially, the composition of its assets (tangibility).This sense, the smaller the size of the undertaking or the greater the representation of fixed assets in total assets, the greater its propensity to long-term debt. Furthermore, this research could not identify a predominant theory to explain the capital structure of Brazilian