Previsão do índice bovespa por meio de redes neurais artificiais: uma análise comparada aos métodos tradicionais de séries de tempo

Forecast is the basis for making strategic, tactical and operational business decisions. In financial economics, several techniques have been used to predict the behavior of assets over the past decades.Thus, there are several methods to assist in the task of time series forecasting, however, conventional modeling techniques such as statistical models and those based on theoretical mathematical models have produced unsatisfactory predictions, increasing the number of studies in more advanced methods of prediction. Among these, the Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) are a relatively new and promising method for predicting business that shows a technique that has caused much interest in the financial environment and has been used successfully in a wide variety of financial modeling systems applications, in many cases proving its superiority over the statistical models ARIMA-GARCH. In this context, this study aimed to examine whether the ANNs are a more appropriate method for predicting the behavior of Indices in Capital Markets than the traditional methods of time series analysis. For this purpose we developed an quantitative study, from financial economic indices, and developed two models of RNA-type feedfoward supervised learning, whose structures consisted of 20 data in the input layer, 90 neurons in one hidden layer and one given as the output layer (Ibovespa). These models used backpropagation, an input activation function based on the tangent sigmoid and a linear output function. Since the aim of analyzing the adherence of the Method of Artificial Neural Networks to carry out predictions of the Ibovespa, we chose to perform this analysis by comparing results between this and Time Series Predictive Model GARCH, developing a GARCH model (1.1).Once applied both methods (ANN and GARCH) we conducted the results' analysis by comparing the results of the forecast with the historical data and by studying the forecast errors by the MSE, RMSE, MAE, Standard Deviation, the Theil's U and forecasting encompassing tests. It was found that the models developed by means of ANNs had lower MSE, RMSE and MAE than the GARCH (1,1) model and Theil U test indicated that the three models have smaller errors than those of a naïve forecast. Although the ANN based on returns have lower precision indicator values than those of ANN based on prices, the forecast encompassing test rejected the hypothesis that this model is better than that, indicating that the ANN models have a similar level of accuracy . It was concluded that for the data series studied the ANN models show a more appropriate Ibovespa forecasting than the traditional models of time series, represented by the GARCH model

Remoção de ruídos sísmicos utilizando transformada de wavelet 1D e 2D com software em desenvolvimento

In the Hydrocarbon exploration activities, the great enigma is the location of the deposits. Great efforts are undertaken in an attempt to better identify them, locate them and at the same time, enhance cost-effectiveness relationship of extraction of oil. Seismic methods are the most widely used because they are indirect, i.e., probing the subsurface layers without invading them. Seismogram is the representation of the Earth s interior and its structures through a conveniently disposed arrangement of the data obtained by seismic reflection. A major problem in this representation is the intensity and variety of present noise in the seismogram, as the surface bearing noise that contaminates the relevant signals, and may mask the desired information, brought by waves scattered in deeper regions of the geological layers. It was developed a tool to suppress these noises based on wavelet transform 1D and 2D. The Java language program makes the separation of seismic images considering the directions (horizontal, vertical, mixed or local) and bands of wavelengths that form these images, using the Daubechies Wavelets, Auto-resolution and Tensor Product of wavelet bases. Besides, it was developed the option in a single image, using the tensor product of two-dimensional wavelets or one-wavelet tensor product by identities. In the latter case, we have the wavelet decomposition in a two dimensional signal in a single direction. This decomposition has allowed to lengthen a certain direction the two-dimensional Wavelets, correcting the effects of scales by applying Auto-resolutions. In other words, it has been improved the treatment of a seismic image using 1D wavelet and 2D wavelet at different stages of Auto-resolution. It was also implemented improvements in the display of images associated with breakdowns in each Auto-resolution, facilitating the choices of images with the signals of interest for image reconstruction without noise. The program was tested with real data and the results were good